ICE Weekly: Canola Price Gains Driven by More Than Just Middle East Conflict
Glacier FarmMedia — The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is not the sole factor influencing canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange, according to Tony Tryhuk, director of futures trading for RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.
Tryhuk highlighted that the liquidation of the nearby May contract has also been a significant market feature, with persistent questions surrounding canola exports lingering in the background.
He noted that commodity funds still hold “substantial length” in the May contract, while hedgers, exporters, and crushers have shifted their attention to the more actively traded July contract.
For daily canola market updates, readers are encouraged to visit The Western Producer Markets Desk.
Tryhuk also pointed to swirling questions regarding Canada’s canola export program, particularly concerning trade with China.
“There’s been mixed feelings about how much China is in the market and if that’s going to have a material impact on the ending stocks number,” he explained.
The latest data from the Canadian Grain Commission revealed that 114,200 tonnes of canola were exported to China during February. However, due to China’s earlier tariffs on Canadian oilseed, cumulative exports for 2025-26, standing at 328,700 tonnes, represent less than a tenth of the volume recorded at the same time last year.
Recent inquiries have emerged about whether China is actively purchasing canola, especially given the price surge since the onset of the Middle East conflict. Tryhuk suggested that vessel lineups in ports like Vancouver could provide clarity.
“When you look at the vessel line up, there are a lot of boats headed to China,” he stated. He further observed, “What I have noticed is … as China becomes a more popular destination for exports, we’re now losing out on that business we had done before China came (back) into the market.”
Tryhuk indicated a slowdown in canola shipments to the European Union, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the United Arab Emirates.
“Those boats are not appearing on the vessel line-up,” he said, adding, “What we are doing is we’ve substituted one canola outlet for another,” suggesting this trend will not help reduce canola ending stocks for 2025-26, which are projected to be quite large.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada projected the canola carryover for 2025-26 to reach 2.76 million tonnes, a significant increase from 1.6 million tonnes in 2024-25. The export estimate for the current marketing year is 8.2 million tonnes, compared to 9.33 million tonnes the previous year.
As long as the Middle East conflict persists, Tryhuk concluded that the premium in canola prices would likely remain.
- #CanolaMarket
- #CommodityPrices
- #AgricultureNews
- #GlobalTrade
- #CanolaExports
- #ChinaTrade
- #MiddleEastConflict
- #CanadianAgriculture
- #MarketAnalysis
- #Oilseed