The lead negotiator at the UN climate talks stated that the repercussions of the Iran war are compelling nations to enhance their domestic energy reliability, thereby presenting an opportunity for advancements in clean energy generation at the upcoming UN climate summit.
Chris Bowen, Australia’s climate change minister and the new president of negotiations for the Cop31 conference in Turkey this November, described the energy market disruption as a global fossil fuel crisis. He noted it’s the second such crisis in four years, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and is profoundly impacting Asia.
However, Bowen revealed that Asian leaders and ministers, among others, have privately emphasized that the instability in liquid fuel supply underscores the necessity to secure short-term energy needs and accelerate the transition to renewable energy and electrification to lessen dependence on imported oil.
“No one has said this crisis is a reminder that we need to be more reliant on fossil fuels,” he told the Guardian in his inaugural interview in the role. “There’s a real appetite to emphasize reliability and energy sovereignty this year, and I think that does open up more opportunities for Cop31.”
Bowen’s remarks align with those of Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, who argued that the war is prompting countries to move away from oil to secure energy supplies, a shift that could permanently alter the fossil fuel industry.
These comments emerged as countries convened for two separate international meetings aimed at revitalizing collective action on the climate crisis: the annual Petersberg climate dialogue hosted by the German government, and the first international conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, which commenced in Santa Marta, Colombia, on Friday.
Co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands, the Santa Marta event was initiated in response to frustrations with petrostates, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, for their opposition to a clear statement on phasing out fossil fuels at the Cop30 summit in Brazil last November.
Australia, a major coal and gas exporter that continues to approve new fossil fuel projects despite record rates of household solar panel and battery installations, supported a Colombian-led declaration in Brazil on the need to transition away from fossil fuels. Australian officials are representing the country in Santa Marta. Other fossil fuel producers attending the conference include Canada, Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil, and Turkey.
Notably, the largest national emitters—China, the US, India, and Russia—are not participating. The US, under Donald Trump, has also withdrawn from UN climate summits in the past.
Bowen, a former mayor and long-serving Labor party MP for western Sydney, expressed his belief that consensus remains achievable at climate talks, even in an increasingly chaotic and war-affected world. He noted that each summit partly serves to keep negotiations alive while striving for the best possible progress. He highlighted that commitments made since the Paris Agreement in 2015 have reduced projected global heating from 4C to approximately 2.5C above pre-industrial levels, assuming existing promises are fulfilled.
“You can keep the process alive and hope for a big step forward,” he stated. “I think COPs are unlikely now to be Paris or Copenhagen—you know, outstanding successes or heartbreaking failures. COPs are more likely to be incremental progress. The question is how big that progress is.”
Bowen mentioned discussions with Colombia’s environment minister, Irene Velez Torres, agreeing that the outcomes of the Santa Marta conference would be integrated into the UN process. He praised the “perfectly sensible” approach of the more than 50 participating countries in seeking to accelerate their climate goals.
“It is saying, one, we want to push for a strong COP outcome and, two, if consensus is not possible we want a fall back position where the rest of us can agree on something,” he explained. “My job as president of negotiations is to try to steer as strong results as possible through consensus.”
Cop31 faces the added complexity of being co-chaired by two countries with potentially divergent views. Following a prolonged dispute between Turkey and Australia over the presidency, an unusual compromise was reached: Turkey will host the conference and an accompanying green trade fair in Antalya, while Australia will lead the formal negotiations among delegates from nearly 200 nations.
Although the Turkish government ultimately holds responsibility under the UN framework, both countries have affirmed that any disagreements will be resolved through consensus. Pacific countries, who were partners in Australia’s bid, were granted hosting rights for a pre-COP meeting in Fiji and Tuvalu in October.
A draft action agenda for the conference released by Turkey in February, focusing on areas outside formal negotiations, drew criticism for omitting any mention of fossil fuels, the primary driver of climate breakdown. Its 14 priorities included an emphasis on improving waste management, a campaign focus of Emine Erdoğan, wife of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Murat Kurum, the Turkish climate change minister and Cop31 president, did address fossil fuels during his speech at the Petersberg dialogue in Berlin on Tuesday, stating that the current crisis demonstrates “relying solely on fossil fuels means walking towards volatility, insecurity and climate collapse.”
Bowen’s initial plans as president of negotiations have been impacted by his responsibilities for Australia’s liquid fuel supply, leading him to cancel a trip to Berlin and instead address the dialogue via video.
He stated his focus would include implementing a 2023 commitment to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency by 2030. He also identified key areas for Pacific countries: access to finance for developing nations, maintaining the increasingly fragile goal of limiting global heating to 1.5C, and the importance of ocean protection.
Bowen expressed that he and Kurum communicate regularly and share a “very good working relationship,” which he hopes could evolve into an “innovative” hosting model where middle powers with distinct international influence collaborate to forge broad agreement.
“We had tense negotiations to get the outcome. We’ve moved on,” he said. “I’m very upbeat about the relationship. I think it’s in very good working order, and potentially can lead to the sort of breakthrough COP that we need.”
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