Modi’s UAE Visit: A New Era for India’s Middle East Policy
India-UAE relations are on the cusp of a significant transformation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit. The United Arab Emirates presents a strategic gateway for India to establish a crucial pivot in the Persian Gulf, mirroring Singapore’s pivotal role in Southeast Asia.
A Game-Changer in India’s Westward Engagement
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impending stopover in the UAE, part of his forthcoming visit to Europe, is anticipated to be a game-changer. His initial engagement with the Middle East began notably with his visit to the UAE in August 2015. Despite a year-long wait to visit the region, his choice underscored the immense importance of the Emirates. The time is now ripe for India to undertake transformative diplomatic moves.
Navigating the Complexities of Foreign Policy
Foreign policy engagements often present an intriguing dilemma. Nations that are geographically, economically, and consequently strategically larger invariably hold critical importance. While forging closer ties with such global powers is a priority for New Delhi, it is equally vital to acknowledge that regional powers are often less receptive to influence that directly serves India’s interests. They may either be competing powers or be aligned with India’s rivals. New Delhi’s diplomatic maneuvering room with these regional heavyweights is therefore limited, often confined to bilateral relations. Simply put, India cannot leverage these regional powers to expand its relations with other interlocutors.
The Middle East Conundrum: Beyond Bilateral Ties
In the intricate Middle Eastern landscape, countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Türkiye, and Iran are undoubtedly significant. It is in India’s strategic interest to cultivate closer ties with these regional powers for both economic prosperity and political stability. However, an undeniable and uncomfortable truth persists: regardless of the closeness achieved, these nations are unlikely to become staunch advocates, promoters, or facilitators of India’s broader interests in the Middle East. Such a role would run counter to their own regional calculations and could even diminish their leverage with other global powers. Larger countries often possess a sense of national pride that prevents them from being perceived as India’s ‘cat’s paw’ or, as detractors might label them, India’s ‘satellites’.
Learning from the Singapore Model: A Visionary Approach
This understanding leads foresighted leaders to identify smaller yet reliable countries, bestowing upon them disproportionate interest, attention, and importance. This strategic foresight was exemplified by Prime Minister P. V. Narasimha Rao in the early 1990s. To the surprise and even consternation of many pundits, he hosted Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong of Singapore as the chief guest at India’s Republic Day parade in January 1994. Granting such an honour to a ‘tiny city-state’ drew criticism from several experts, some of whom publicly voiced their displeasure.
Fortunately for India, these domestic critics failed to grasp Rao’s broader strategic calculations. His ‘excessive’ emphasis on the city-state yielded significant dividends, transforming Singapore into a formidable champion of India’s interests across Southeast Asia. Rather than New Delhi merely asserting its importance, Singapore actively became the advocate and vehicle for advancing India’s standing and reliability in the region. Before long, Singapore emerged as the pivot of India’s ‘Look East Policy’, facilitating closer political, economic, and strategic ties with ASEAN, securing memberships in crucial forums like the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Regional Forum, and ultimately contributing to the emergence of the Indo-Pacific community. Without Singapore’s dedicated assistance, this journey would have been far more arduous, if not incomplete.
Replicating Success in the Western Neighbourhood
Though arguably delayed, India now requires a similar strategic approach in its Western neighbourhood, particularly within the Persian Gulf region. While countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia are intrinsically important, and fostering close ties with them remains critical, they are unlikely to actively advocate for the expansion of India’s strategic footprint in the Middle East. Such support would inevitably undermine their own regional influence, a scenario neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia would ever countenance. In many respects, a greater Indian influence could even run counter to their established regional interests and comfort zones.
The UAE: India’s Strategic Partner in the Gulf
India, therefore, needs to identify a smaller yet strategically astute power capable of serving its long-term interests. Bahrain and Oman possess limited hydrocarbon resources. India’s interests in Kuwait and Qatar are predominantly energy-centric, which inherently limits its broader influence. While energy trade with Iraq is growing, the nation faces numerous domestic and regional challenges that impede its potential to become a robust ally for India.
It is in this context that the UAE emerges, either by design or fortunate circumstance, as the ideal player capable of projecting and promoting India’s long-term interests in the Persian Gulf and beyond. Bilateral trade between India and the UAE is significantly diversified, bolstered by strong expatriate communities and substantial remittance flows. On several critical issues, including relations with Israel, both nations find themselves aligned. Furthermore, in recent weeks, President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan has demonstrated efforts to minimize Saudi Arabia’s historically overbearing regional influence, potentially opening new avenues for strategic partnerships.
Solidifying the Partnership: Beyond Tentativeness
While regional powers are undeniably important, their capacity to fully accommodate India’s expanding strategic ambitions is often limited. With determined focus and sustained patience, India should strategically position the UAE as its principal ally in the Middle East. India could have potentially established the Emirates as its pivot in the Persian Gulf much earlier, soon after Prime Minister Modi assumed office. However, neither side was fully prepared at that juncture. The past decade has, crucially, allowed India to gain a deeper understanding of the region and to clearly discern its genuine friends, reliable allies, and strategic competitors.
The time has therefore arrived to move beyond any lingering tentativeness in relations with the UAE. Frequent high-level political contacts, such as President Zayed’s January visit and Prime Prime Minister Modi’s upcoming visit later this month, must be leveraged to develop a comprehensive roadmap. This roadmap should centralize the UAE as India’s strategic pivot to the Gulf, effectively anchoring India’s multifaceted interests within the region. This does not imply that India is assuming the role of the UAE’s new security provider, but rather emphasizes the UAE’s indispensable role as a vital component of India’s broader engagements with the Persian Gulf.
Singapore stands as a successful and inspiring role model for this strategy. The crucial question remains: will India successfully emulate this path and establish the UAE as its ‘Singapore to the West’?
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