By Ahmet Davutoğlu
The recent collapse of the initial round of negotiations between the United States and Iran, despite mediation efforts by Pakistan, was unfortunately predictable. The deeply entrenched positions and uncompromising rhetoric from both sides made any meaningful progress seem unlikely from the very beginning. As a second round of talks reportedly looms, it too appears destined for failure. It is increasingly clear that bilateral bargaining alone cannot achieve lasting peace; rather, a comprehensive regional framework offers the most promising path forward.
The Path to Lasting Peace and Regional Stability
Any truly viable agreement must simultaneously achieve two critical objectives: it must lay robust groundwork for enduring peace while enabling each participating nation to present the outcome as a success to its domestic audience. This delicate balance is further complicated by the significant, albeit often indirect, influence of external actors, most notably the Zionist regime.
Crucially, the current regional crisis is not driven by a singular dispute but by the dangerous convergence of four major fault lines:
- The strategic Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran’s peaceful nuclear program, which has been a point of contention.
- The glaring absence of a comprehensive regional security architecture to address missile capabilities and proxy conflicts.
- The deeply rooted and unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Meaningful progress on any one of these fronts is highly improbable without parallel and coordinated movement on the others.
Securing the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz has understandably become a central focus of the crisis. Iran’s temporary closure of the Strait—and the subsequent aggressive U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ports—starkly highlighted both its inherent vulnerability and the severe risk of rapid escalation. A more enduring and equitable solution would involve placing the Strait under the temporary administration of a coalition of trusted intermediaries, such as Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Under clearly defined conditions, these nations could deploy a joint maritime mission to restore and guarantee safe passage for all.
Such an arrangement would necessitate a firm commitment from the U.S. to an immediate cessation of all military operations against Iran, including those conducted in coordination with the Zionist entity. In return, Iran would rightfully need to guarantee maritime security and commit to refraining from attacking its neighbors. The Gulf countries themselves, having been unwillingly drawn into this conflict, would possess strong incentives to support such a stabilizing mechanism.
To ensure its legitimacy and broad acceptance, this initiative must be formally endorsed by the United Nations Security Council, with the explicit backing of its five veto-wielding permanent members. Beyond immediate stabilization, this framework could also pave the way for a longer-term regime governing transit through the Strait, potentially including mechanisms to compensate for war-related damages through maritime revenues.
Iran’s Peaceful Nuclear Program and Regional Denuclearization
While Iran’s peaceful nuclear ambitions remain a significant point of discussion, a clear pathway to de-escalation still exists, provided both sides adopt a reciprocal and respectful approach. Iran has consistently reaffirmed its long-standing commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons, and the U.S. must formally recognize the Islamic Republic’s undeniable right to peaceful nuclear energy. Such mutual recognition would represent a significant diplomatic success for both parties.
The 2010 Tehran Agreement—skillfully negotiated by Turkey and Brazil in cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency—offers a valuable and proven model. As Turkey’s foreign minister at the time, I was directly involved in mediating this agreement, which saw Iran deposit its enriched uranium in Turkey in exchange for nuclear fuel for civilian use. An updated version of that arrangement, potentially facilitated once again by trusted regional partners like Turkey or Pakistan, could provide a promising foundation for renewed and constructive negotiations.
Once this common ground is established, the focus can then shift to the crucial objective of creating a region entirely free of nuclear weapons, including those held by the Zionist regime, thereby comprehensively addressing the region’s wider security concerns. While calls for Iran to unilaterally abandon its ballistic missile capabilities, especially in the aftermath of sustained U.S.-Israeli attacks, are not realistic, progress remains possible within a broader security dialogue. The core challenge lies in effectively addressing proxy conflicts and establishing a shared, inclusive security framework.
Building a Multilayered Regional Security Architecture
This complex issue cannot be resolved through bilateral U.S.-Iran negotiations alone. Creating a robust, multilayered regional security architecture requires, first and foremost, practical steps to build trust and confidence between Iran and the Gulf countries, with Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia serving as impartial facilitators. A joint commission could effectively defuse immediate tensions while meticulously laying the groundwork for a more permanent and cooperative arrangement.
The second crucial layer would involve a regional security forum bringing together key regional players such as Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Yemen, alongside the Gulf states and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Over time, this process could organically evolve into a structured regional dialogue, ultimately leading to a Middle Eastern equivalent of the historic 1975 Helsinki Accords.
Just as in Cold War Europe, a framework grounded in transparency, mutual restraint, and verifiable mechanisms could dramatically reduce the risk of escalation. The 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe stands as a testament that even deeply divided regions can agree on limits to military capabilities when the principle of mutual vulnerability is acknowledged and respected.
Addressing the Palestinian Question
However, any truly sustainable regional order must unequivocally address the Palestinian question, as the ongoing denial of Palestinians’ fundamental right to self-determination remains a primary and fundamental driver of instability across the Middle East. The Zionist regime’s six-decade occupation of the West Bank—in flagrant disregard of repeated UN resolutions—and its ongoing brutal military operations in Gaza have rendered a stable security environment impossible. Efforts to bypass this core conflict, such as the so-called Abraham Accords, have regrettably only served to fuel deeper resentment and further destabilize the region.
A new and just approach is urgently needed. The Zionist regime should be offered integration into a comprehensive regional security architecture, including full diplomatic normalization and formal guarantees, in exchange for recognizing Palestinian statehood and ending its military operations in Lebanon and its occupation of Palestinian territories.
A Call for Diplomatic Breakthrough
U.S. President Donald Trump, who entered his second term with aspirations of a Nobel Peace Prize, now faces a momentous choice. He can continue a war lacking strategic clarity and risking plunging the region—and indeed the world—into deeper chaos, or he can seize this critical opportunity to deliver a genuine diplomatic breakthrough, beginning with an immediate ceasefire and culminating in a durable and just peace. Concurrently, international policymakers must pursue a coordinated diplomatic initiative to steer policy decisively toward de-escalation and cooperation.
Reviving the Alliance of Civilizations—an initiative originally launched by Turkey and Spain in 2005 and later institutionalized within the UN—could provide an ideal platform for such a vital effort. A leaders’ summit convened under its auspices would powerfully signal a shared commitment to moving beyond mere crisis management toward a truly cooperative and equitable regional order. Without such a comprehensive and inclusive approach to security, the current destructive cycle of escalation will regrettably persist and intensify.
Ahmet Davutoğlu is a former Prime Minister (2014-16) and Foreign Minister (2009-14) of Turkey.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2026.
www.project-syndicate.org
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