Global air cargo operations are once again facing significant disruption following recent missile and drone attacks in the Middle East, particularly targeting the UAE on May 4. Logistics giant SEKO Logistics reports that these escalations have severely restricted airspace, leading to a substantial global air cargo capacity shortfall of up to 16%.
This latest development marks a critical setback for the logistics sector, which had just begun to see signs of recovery after the UAE’s airspace reopened on May 2. “The UAE reopening on 2 May was a significant relief, but the 4 May escalation has reintroduced serious uncertainty and potential capacity shocks,” stated SEKO.
Civilian airspace across a broad swathe of the Middle East remains either fully closed or heavily restricted. Countries like Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Syria have completely shut their airspace to commercial traffic. Israel also maintains largely closed skies, albeit accepting limited pre-approved cargo. Partial or restricted closures are now in effect for Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and crucially, the UAE, encompassing major hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah. These key Emirati airports, which had nearly returned to pre-disruption operational levels (70-90%) post-May 2 reopening, are now grappling with temporary operational halts, delays, and renewed backlogs, particularly impacting time-sensitive shipments.
The ripple effect extends to Lebanon and Oman, experiencing indirect operational impacts. SEKO highlighted that the surrounding Middle East and Persian Gulf corridors to these nations effectively remain “a de facto no-fly zone for most commercial traffic.”
Middle East carriers, vital contributors to global air cargo, typically handling 25-30% of annual volume, had been striving to recover from initial disruptions that began in late February. However, the events of May 4 have further exacerbated airline operations, resulting in “ongoing suspensions or heavy cancellations to affected hubs.” While Emirates SkyCargo has not commented directly on its operations, it announced a near-full return to operations with 96% of its global network restored on May 4. Qatar Airways Cargo confirmed the resumption of freighter and belly operations to and from Doha on May 2.
The Asia-Europe trade lane has borne the brunt of the May 4 attacks, experiencing the most severe impact. Rerouted flights and escalating fuel costs are anticipated to trigger “high rate spikes.” Asia-Africa continues to face significant disruption, while Asia-Americas, Europe-Americas, and US lanes are under “indirect pressure,” with rates already increasing by 15-35% and potential additional delays.
Airlines are contending with soaring jet fuel costs, compounded by rerouted flights that typically add 2-5 hours to journey times and result in 30-50% higher fuel burn, consequently reducing payload and cargo volume per flight. This comes just after data provider Xeneta suggested airfreight rates might have peaked, following a more than 30% year-on-year increase in April.
The air cargo sector’s woes are mirrored in ocean shipping, which has seen ongoing disruption since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 2.
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