Muscat: Middle Eastern carriers experienced a significant 60.8 percent year-on-year decrease in demand during March, a direct consequence of the US-Israel-Iran war. This conflict led to the closure of much of the region’s airspace, with exceptions only for the Sultanate of Oman and the west coast of Saudi Arabia.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), capacity in the region also saw a substantial 56.9% year-on-year reduction, resulting in a load factor of 67.8%.
Globally, total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), surprisingly increased by 2.1% compared to March 2025. However, total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with the global load factor reaching 83.6% (a 3.1 percentage point increase from March 2025).
International demand worldwide saw a slight fall of 0.6% compared to March 2025. International capacity was down 6.2% year-on-year, and the load factor stood at 84.1%. The primary driver for this overall decline in international traffic was the drastic 60.8% drop in traffic experienced by Middle Eastern carriers.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, commented, “Demand for air travel continued to grow in March despite disruptions in the Middle East. While global growth was restrained to 2.1% by the nearly 61% decline in international traffic from Middle Eastern carriers, demand outside of the Middle East actually grew by 8%.”
Walsh also highlighted concerns regarding jet fuel. “Everyone is closely monitoring the situation with jet fuel—both its supply and pricing. On the supply side, we could face shortages in the coming months in regions heavily dependent on Gulf supplies, particularly Asia and Europe. Furthermore, the exceptionally high cost of jet fuel is increasingly being reflected in ticket prices. Although this has not yet impacted March traffic or forward bookings, it remains to be seen at what point elevated prices might alter passenger behavior. So far, the summer appears to be shaping up as a typically busy travel period, which is positive news. However, airline resilience is being tested, and stabilizing fuel supply and prices is critical. In the interim, regulators must be prepared to offer airlines flexibility on slots, given the extraordinary circumstances of airspace capacity restrictions and potential fuel rationing.”
Data for 2026 from the National Center for Statistics and Information (NCSI) indicates that even Muscat International Airport experienced a decline in international passenger traffic. Arrivals dropped to 728,588 in March 2026, a decrease from 939,921 in February and 1.18 million in January. The total passenger numbers for the first quarter of 2026 fell by 2.4% to 2.86 million, with flight activity also decreasing to 5,515 flights in March.
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