Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyururken \u0130ran liderli\u011fini \u201cciddi \u015fekilde par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131.
\nTrump Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, m\u00fczakereler i\u00e7in daha fazla zaman tan\u0131mak amac\u0131yla ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti ve \u0130ran liderli\u011finin karma\u015fa i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu ima etti.
\nABD’nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fini de s\u00f6zlerine ekledi.
\n\u00dc\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce Trump, ABD askeri harekat\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinde bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik sa\u011flama hedefine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD’nin art\u0131k \u00fclkenin ba\u015f\u0131nda \u201cyepyeni bir insan grubuyla\u201d u\u011fra\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etmi\u015fti.
\n11 Nisan’da \u0130ran, ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ba\u015flamak \u00fczere Pakistan’\u0131n ba\u015fkenti \u0130slamabad’a Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf liderli\u011findeki bir heyet g\u00f6nderdi.
\nPeki \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u201cpar\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f\u201d m\u0131? \u0130ran’daki kilit payda\u015flara ve g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezlerine ve ABD m\u00fczakerelerine yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fine bir g\u00f6z atal\u0131m.
\n\u0130ran’daki kilit isimler kimler ve ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler konusunda ‘par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f’ durumdalar m\u0131?
\nY\u00fcce Lider M\u00fccteba Hamenei
\nHamenei, 28 \u015eubat’ta sava\u015f\u0131n ilk g\u00fcn\u00fcnde ABD-\u0130srail hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda Tahran’da \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclen eski Y\u00fcce Lider Ali Hamenei’nin ikinci o\u011fludur. Devlet medyas\u0131 raporlar\u0131na g\u00f6re, M\u00fccteba Hamenei 8 Mart’ta \u0130ran’\u0131n yeni y\u00fcce lideri olarak se\u00e7ildi.
\n56 ya\u015f\u0131ndaki Hamenei hi\u00e7bir zaman bir g\u00f6reve aday olmam\u0131\u015f veya se\u00e7ilmemi\u015f olsa da, onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r babas\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7 \u00e7evresinde son derece etkili bir fig\u00fcr olmu\u015f, \u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Kolordusu (IRGC) ile derin ba\u011flar kurmu\u015ftur.
\nG\u00f6zlemciler, gen\u00e7 Hamenei’nin y\u00fckseli\u015finin, \u0130ran m\u00fcesses nizam\u0131ndaki daha sertlik yanl\u0131s\u0131 gruplar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc elinde tuttu\u011funun a\u00e7\u0131k bir i\u015fareti oldu\u011funu ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetin k\u0131sa vadede ABD ile bir anla\u015fma veya m\u00fczakerelere varmak i\u00e7in pek istekli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.
\nAncak y\u00fckseli\u015finden bu yana M\u00fccteba Hamenei kamuoyunda g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi. 13 Mart’ta ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 Pete Hegseth, \u0130ran’\u0131n yeni y\u00fcce liderinin ABD-\u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda yaraland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etti.
\n\u0130lgi alanlar\u0131n\u0131za g\u00f6re an\u0131nda uyar\u0131lar ve g\u00fcncellemeler al\u0131n. B\u00fcy\u00fck haberler oldu\u011funda ilk siz haberdar olun.
\n11 Nisan’da Reuters haber ajans\u0131n\u0131n, y\u00fcce liderin i\u00e7 \u00e7evresine yak\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 ki\u015fiye dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir raporunda, Hamenei’nin babas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ld\u00fcren hava sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131nda ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ciddi y\u00fcz ve bacak yaralanmalar\u0131ndan hala iyile\u015fmekte oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Kaynaklar, \u00fcst d\u00fczey yetkililerle yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131lara sesli konferans yoluyla kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.
\nEl Cezire bu iddialar\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak do\u011frulayamad\u0131.
\nDevlet medyas\u0131 raporlar\u0131na g\u00f6re, Hamenei sava\u015fla ilgili kararlar almada aktif rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.
\n18 Nisan’da \u0130ran devlet televizyonunda okunan bir mesaj\u0131nda Hamenei, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’nda gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 \u00fczerine \u0130ran donanmas\u0131n\u0131n ABD ve \u0130srail’e \u201cyeni ac\u0131 yenilgiler\u201d ya\u015fatmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.
\nMeclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf
\n64 ya\u015f\u0131ndaki Galibaf, 2020’den beri \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rev yapmaktad\u0131r.
\n1997’den 2000’e kadar IRGC hava kuvvetleri komutan\u0131yd\u0131. Daha sonra \u00fclkenin emniyet m\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc olarak g\u00f6rev yapt\u0131. 2005’ten 2017’ye kadar Tahran belediye ba\u015fkan\u0131yd\u0131.
\nGalibaf, 2005, 2013, 2017 ve 2024 y\u0131llar\u0131nda cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinde aday oldu. 2017’de Hasan Ruhani’nin ikinci d\u00f6nemini kazanmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 adayl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ekildi.
\nGe\u00e7en ay, ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde, Galibaf’\u0131n sava\u015f bittikten sonra \u00fclkeyi y\u00f6netecek Trump y\u00f6netiminin \u201cse\u00e7imi\u201d oldu\u011fu \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ayr\u0131ca 11 Nisan’da Pakistan’da ba\u015flayan m\u00fczakereleri y\u00fcr\u00fcten ana \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkili olmu\u015ftur.
\nSal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc X’te yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir gece payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda Galibaf, Trump’\u0131n iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin bu hafta anla\u015fma sa\u011flanamadan sona ermesi halinde Tahran’\u0131 \u201cdaha \u00f6nce hi\u00e7 g\u00f6rmedikleri sorunlarla\u201d tehdit etmesinden sonra \u0130ran’\u0131n \u201csava\u015f alan\u0131nda yeni kartlar a\u00e7\u0131klamaya haz\u0131r\u201d oldu\u011funu yazd\u0131.
\nGalibaf, Trump’a \u201cabluka dayatmas\u0131 ve ate\u015fkese ayk\u0131r\u0131 davranmas\u0131\u201d nedeniyle \u00f6fkesini dile getirdi.
\n\u201cTehdit g\u00f6lgesinde m\u00fczakereleri kabul etmiyoruz ve son iki haftad\u0131r sava\u015f alan\u0131nda yeni kartlar a\u00e7\u0131klamaya haz\u0131rland\u0131k\u201d dedi.
\nAte\u015fkesin \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc sona ermesi gerekiyordu, ancak s\u00fcresi dolmadan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce Trump, \u0130ran \u201cbirle\u015fik bir teklif sunana kadar\u201d s\u00fcreyi uzatt\u0131.
\nAncak \u0130ran i\u00e7inde, Galibaf’\u0131n ABD ile m\u00fczakerelere girme iste\u011fi, kendisini \u201cihanetle\u201d su\u00e7layan baz\u0131 ki\u015filer taraf\u0131ndan ele\u015ftirildi.
\n\u0130ran International TV kanal\u0131n\u0131n Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc bir raporuna g\u00f6re, Galibaf’\u0131n baz\u0131 ele\u015ftirmenleri \u0130ran’daki sosyal medya platformlar\u0131nda, meclis ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n ABD ile bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ilerledi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00f6nerisinin \u201cendi\u015fe verici\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.
\nBir ele\u015ftirmen, \u201cM\u00fczakerelerde zarardan ba\u015fka bir \u015fey yok\u201d dedi.
\nAncak Galibaf, ABD ile m\u00fczakereleri savunmu\u015ftur. Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc televizyonda yay\u0131nlanan bir r\u00f6portajda, diplomasinin \u201c\u0130ran’\u0131n taleplerinden geri \u00e7ekilmek\u201d anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fini, ancak \u201caskeri kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 peki\u015ftirmenin ve bunlar\u0131 siyasi sonu\u00e7lara ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bar\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmenin\u201d bir yolu oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.
\n\u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Kolordusu
\n\u0130ran’\u0131n askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 yap\u0131s\u0131 genellikle opak ve karma\u015f\u0131k olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131r.
\n\u00dclke, hepsi do\u011frudan y\u00fcce lidere, yani t\u00fcm silahl\u0131 kuvvetlerin ba\u015fkomutan\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 paralel ordular, \u00e7oklu istihbarat servisleri ve katmanl\u0131 komuta yap\u0131lar\u0131 i\u015fletmektedir.
\nParalel ordular, \u0130ran’\u0131n d\u00fczenli ordusu olan ve b\u00f6lgesel savunma, \u0130ran hava sahas\u0131n\u0131n savunmas\u0131 ve konvansiyonel sava\u015ftan sorumlu Artesh ile rol\u00fc savunman\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7erek \u0130ran’\u0131n siyasi yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 korumay\u0131 da i\u00e7eren IRGC’den olu\u015fmaktad\u0131r.
\nIRGC ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran’\u0131n hava sahas\u0131n\u0131 ve drone cephaneli\u011fini kontrol etmektedir; bu da \u0130srail ve ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u0130ran’\u0131n cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k stratejisinin omurgas\u0131 haline gelmi\u015ftir.
\nABD ve \u0130srail’in \u0130ran’\u0131 vurup Ali Hamenei’yi \u00f6ld\u00fcrmesinden sonra IRGC intikam s\u00f6z\u00fc verdi ve \u201c\u0130slam Cumhuriyeti silahl\u0131 kuvvetlerinin i\u015fgal alt\u0131ndaki topraklara [\u0130srail’e at\u0131f] ve Amerikan ter\u00f6ristlerinin \u00fcslerine kar\u015f\u0131 tarihindeki en a\u011f\u0131r sald\u0131r\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131\u201d olarak adland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015feyi ba\u015flatt\u0131. O zamandan beri K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesindeki ABD askeri varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 vurdu.
\nBaz\u0131 uzmanlar, ABD ile m\u00fczakere eden \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerin di\u011fer liderlerden ve gruplardan daha \u00e7ok IRGC ile uyumlu oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.
\n25 Mart’ta El Cezire’ye verdi\u011fi bir r\u00f6portajda, \u0130ran konusunda uzmanla\u015fm\u0131\u015f siyasi analist Babak Vahdad, \u0130ran’\u0131n Muhammed Bak\u0131r Z\u00fclkadir’i \u0130ran Y\u00fcksek Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi sekreteri olarak atamas\u0131n\u0131n, \u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerinin IRGC’nin \u00f6ncelikleriyle daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir \u015fekilde uyumlu hale gelece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini belirtti. Z\u00fclkadir eski bir IRGC komutan\u0131d\u0131r ve 2023’ten beri Dan\u0131\u015fma D\u00fczen Konseyi sekreteri olarak g\u00f6rev yapmaktad\u0131r.
\nAncak \u0130ran’daki Bilimsel Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve Orta Do\u011fu Stratejik \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar Merkezi’nde Fars K\u00f6rfezi \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 Grubu’nu y\u00f6neten Cevad Hayran-Nia, IRGC ile \u0130ran’\u0131n m\u00fczakere ekibi aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131m\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi.
\nTrump’\u0131n 6 Nisan’da ate\u015fkese duyurmas\u0131ndan ve ABD deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinden bu yana \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’nda \u00fc\u00e7 kargo gemisine sald\u0131rd\u0131.
\nEl Cezire’ye verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te, \u201cAte\u015fkes s\u0131ras\u0131nda tankerlere yap\u0131lan sald\u0131r\u0131, IRGC’nin diplomatik ekip \u00fczerindeki hakimiyetini ve onlar\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131na olan sayg\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor\u201d dedi.
\nPaydari Cephesi
\nHayran-Nia, \u00fcyeleri 1979 \u0130slam devriminin orijinal ilkelerini ve y\u00fcce liderin mutlak g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korumaya derinden ba\u011fl\u0131 olan \u0130ran’\u0131n siyasi yap\u0131s\u0131ndaki sertlik yanl\u0131s\u0131 bir grup olan Paydari Cephesi’nin (Se\u00e7kinler Cephesi) rol\u00fcne dikkat \u00e7ekti. Bu grubun, m\u00fczakereleri g\u00fc\u00e7 yap\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7inde ve destek taban\u0131 aras\u0131nda konumunu sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.
\nPaydari Cephesi’nin de m\u00fczakereleri sorgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6zlerine ekledi.
\n\u201c\u0130ran’\u0131n mevcut siyasi ikliminde, \u00e7e\u015fitli gruplar hem g\u00fc\u00e7 yap\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7inde hem de kamuoyunda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Elbette, Paydari Cephesi’nin \u00e7abalar\u0131, toplumun di\u011fer kesimlerini etkilemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktan ziyade kendi destek tabanlar\u0131yla ilgili olarak daha anlaml\u0131 \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc sertlik yanl\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 di\u011fer sosyal s\u0131n\u0131flar i\u00e7in hi\u00e7bir \u00e7ekicilik ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131yor\u201d dedi.
\nAncak bu grubun g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ilerlemesi \u00fczerindeki etkisinin tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 oldu\u011funu da s\u00f6zlerine ekledi.
\n\u201cBir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131l\u0131rsa, muhtemelen egemen bir karaktere sahip olacakt\u0131r. M\u00fcessese kendi anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 dayatacak ve IRGC bunu kabul edecektir. Bu arada, sertlik yanl\u0131lar\u0131 [Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131] Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan ve Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf y\u00f6netimini anla\u015fma konusunda ele\u015ftireceklerdir. Ancak bunun m\u00fcessesenin karar alma organ\u0131na yay\u0131lmas\u0131 pek olas\u0131 de\u011fildir\u201d diye ekledi.
\n#\u0130ran #Trump #Ate\u015fkes #M\u00fczakereler #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #\u0130slamDevrimMuhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 #M\u00fcctebaHamenei #MuhammedBak\u0131rGalibaf #PaydariCephesi #ABD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyururken \u0130ran liderli\u011fini \u201cciddi \u015fekilde par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131. Trump Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, m\u00fczakereler i\u00e7in daha fazla zaman tan\u0131mak amac\u0131yla ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti ve \u0130ran liderli\u011finin karma\u015fa i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu ima etti. ABD’nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fini de s\u00f6zlerine ekledi. \u00dc\u00e7 hafta […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7775,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7774"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7774\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7775"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}