K\u00fcresel zarar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 tek bir b\u00f6lge \u00fcstlenecek. Allianz Trade, Orta Do\u011fu risk g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc keskin bir \u015fekilde g\u00fcncelleyerek, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde d\u00fcnya genelinde 15.000’den fazla \u015firketi daha iflasa s\u00fcr\u00fckleyece\u011fi ve Asya’n\u0131n bu darbenin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ticari kredi sigortac\u0131s\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u015firket iflaslar\u0131n\u0131n 2026’da %6 artarak \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini, 2027’de ise y\u00fcksek seviyelerde sabitlenece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Kendi hesaplamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma gelecek y\u0131l 7.000, 2027’de ise sigortac\u0131n\u0131n kriz \u00f6ncesi varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde ek 7.900 iflas vakas\u0131 yaratacak.<\/p>\n
Bu rakamlar, Allianz Trade’in Ekim 2025’teki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnden \u00f6nemli bir revizyonu i\u015faret ediyor; o d\u00f6nemde 2026 i\u00e7in %5 art\u0131\u015f ve bir sonraki y\u0131l i\u00e7in %1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. O zaman bile sigortac\u0131, 2025’in ilk dokuz ay\u0131nda 327 b\u00fcy\u00fck iflas vakas\u0131 (her 20 saatte bir) kaydetmi\u015f ve 2026’n\u0131n pandemi \u00f6ncesi normal seviyelerin %24 \u00fczerinde seyredece\u011fini belirtmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Revize edilen tahmin, 28 \u015eubat’ta \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flat\u0131lan ABD-\u0130srail askeri harekat\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu harekat, \u0130ran’\u0131n K\u00f6rfez genelinde f\u00fcze misillemesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve Pakistan’\u0131n 8 Nisan’da iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes sa\u011flamas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 kapatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, 22 Nisan’da ate\u015fkese s\u00fcresiz uzatma getirse de, ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn Bo\u011faz’da \u00fc\u00e7 gemiye y\u00f6nelik bildirilen \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 tedirgin etmeye devam etti.<\/p>\n
O zamandan beri enerji fiyatlar\u0131, nakliye maliyetleri ve tedarik zincirleri dalgalanarak enflasyonu, kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 ve i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcvenini etkiledi. ABD Enerji Bilgi \u0130daresi’nin verilerine g\u00f6re, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birini ve s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20’sini ta\u015f\u0131yor; bu da bo\u011faz\u0131n kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n neden b\u00f6lgenin \u00e7ok \u00f6tesine yay\u0131lan etkiler yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Allianz Trade CEO’su Aylin Somersan Coqui, “Bu durum, tar\u0131m-g\u0131da sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden \u00fcretime, sa\u011fl\u0131k hizmetlerinden teknolojiye kadar k\u00fcresel de\u011fer zincirleri boyunca maliyetleri art\u0131r\u0131yor” dedi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kar marj\u0131na, zay\u0131f fiyatland\u0131rma g\u00fcc\u00fcne veya a\u011f\u0131r bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcne sahip \u015firketler en \u00e7ok risk alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel art\u0131\u015f\u0131n %54’\u00fcn\u00fc Asya olu\u015fturacak; b\u00f6lgedeki iflaslar\u0131n 2026’da %7, 2027’de ise %3 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00c7in’de ise emlak ve t\u00fcketici sekt\u00f6rlerinin bask\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle %9 ve %5’lik art\u0131\u015flar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Asya Pasifik’te en keskin art\u0131\u015fla Tayvan, 2026’da %14’l\u00fck bir y\u00fckseli\u015fle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Hong Kong ve Singapur ise son d\u00f6nemdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f trendlerini tersine \u00e7evirecek istisnalar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: Hong Kong’un 2026’da %2, 2027’de ise %10 d\u00fc\u015fmesi, Singapur’un ise %3 ve %5 gerilemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcreli kapanmas\u0131, emtia k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve azalan g\u00fcvenle birle\u015fti\u011finde, k\u00fcresel iflas say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 2026’da ek %10 ve 2027’de %3 daha art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Allianz Trade’in iflas ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 ba\u015f analisti Maxime Lemerle, “S\u00fcrekli ve yayg\u0131n bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, k\u00fcresel iflaslar\u0131n 2026’da %10, 2027’de ise %3 artmas\u0131na neden olacakt\u0131r” dedi. Bu senaryo, ABD’de yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.100, Bat\u0131 Avrupa’da ise 10.500 ek iflas vakas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n
Yaln\u0131zca 2026’daki temel %6’l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f, 2025’e g\u00f6re 94.000 daha fazla olmak \u00fczere 2,2 milyon i\u015fi do\u011frudan riske at\u0131yor; in\u015faat, perakende ve hizmet sekt\u00f6rleri en \u00e7ok etkilenenler aras\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
#\u0130ranSava\u015f\u0131 #\u015eirket\u0130flaslar\u0131 #AllianzTrade #K\u00fcreselEkonomi #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #TedarikZinciri #EnerjiFiyatlar\u0131 #AsyaEkonomisi #TicariKredi #EkonomikRisk<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
K\u00fcresel zarar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 tek bir b\u00f6lge \u00fcstlenecek. Allianz Trade, Orta Do\u011fu risk g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc keskin bir \u015fekilde g\u00fcncelleyerek, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde d\u00fcnya genelinde 15.000’den fazla \u015firketi daha iflasa s\u00fcr\u00fckleyece\u011fi ve Asya’n\u0131n bu darbenin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131. Ticari kredi sigortac\u0131s\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u015firket iflaslar\u0131n\u0131n 2026’da %6 artarak \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fini […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-iran-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7644"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7644\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}