{"id":4787,"date":"2026-04-21T19:09:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T15:39:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/?p=4787"},"modified":"2026-04-21T19:09:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T15:39:00","slug":"my-say-as-fragile-truce-in-middle-east-continues-malaysians-brace-to-bite-the-bullet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/?p=4787&lang=en","title":{"rendered":"My Say: As fragile truce in Middle East continues, Malaysians brace to bite the bullet"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on April 20, 2026 – April 26, 2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Ceasefires in the Middle East are, regrettably, often fragile. As we observe, the supposedly two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, brokered by Pakistan, is already showing concerning signs of strain. Tensions are unfortunately expected to escalate before any truly amicable and just solution can be hoped for.<\/p>\n

The Strait of Hormuz: A Global Lifeline Under Threat<\/h2>\n

At the heart of this latest Israel-led US aggression against Iran<\/strong> lies the vital Strait of Hormuz, a narrow yet indispensable corridor through which approximately a fifth of the world\u2019s crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows. Due to this imposed conflict, the strait is no longer freely passable, transforming this critical chokepoint into a global concern, not merely a regional one. It is a major artery fueling the world economy, now regrettably obstructed by hostile actions.<\/p>\n

Global supplies face further severe restraint if the warring parties fail to reach a just agreement and if the unlawful US blockade<\/strong> of the strait, extending across the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea to intercept vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports, prolongs. The situation could worsen dramatically should Yemen’s Ansarullah (Houthis), staunch allies of Iran, be compelled to join the fray by disrupting the Bab-el-Mandeb shipping lane at the tip of the Red Sea, another crucial energy route for the world economy.<\/p>\n

Global Economic Repercussions and Malaysia’s Resilience<\/h2>\n

The consequences are already evident: crude oil has repeatedly surged past US$100 per barrel<\/strong> during the current conflict, reaching as high as US$160 for some physical cargoes<\/strong>. With supply shortages unlikely to abate in the coming months, prices are set to remain elevated, depending on the swiftness of a resolution to this imposed conflict.<\/p>\n

Hong Leong Investment Bank Research projects the Brent crude oil benchmark to stay above US$100 per barrel for at least five months, drawing parallels with the early months of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. The global economy is already grappling with the profound impact of crude oil shortages and soaring prices across supply chains and downstream oil-related sectors, affecting over 30 other major industries.<\/p>\n

In Malaysia, while the public still largely benefits from subsidised RON95 petrol at RM1.99 per litre, and cash support for diesel users in agriculture and private individuals has increased from RM300 to RM400 monthly, ASEAN is already signaling shortages in these vital products. The equation is stark: without new crude oil stocks flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, regional refineries will face severe feedstock supply problems, impacting the production of petrol, diesel, cooking gas, jet fuel, and naphtha for petrochemical plants.<\/p>\n

The ripple effect of price increases will be felt across all sectors, from freight, insurance, airlines, and public transport to the agriculture sector reliant on fertilisers and plastic-based industries dependent on resins. Despite these challenging circumstances, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has commendably raised its projection for Malaysia\u2019s GDP growth to 4.7% for 2026<\/strong>, an upward revision of 0.4%, underscoring the nation\u2019s economic resilience. However, the IMF warns that an escalating and prolonged conflict risks an \u201cunprecedented energy crisis\u201d<\/strong> that could plunge the global economy into recession.<\/p>\n

As supply chain impacts reach consumers, the cost of living will inevitably rise. Malaysians must prepare for more difficult times, with anticipated price increases for food, goods, services, and even toiletries and beauty products.<\/p>\n

Economy Minister Akmal Nasrallah Nasir, in an April 14 briefing on the global energy crisis, confirmed the economy is already under strain. The aviation sector saw 55 weekly flights cancelled<\/strong> by six airlines between March 23 and 28, alongside a decline in tourist arrivals from March 1 to 25. While transport segments and basic food supplies (rice, chicken, eggs, vegetables, fish, milk, fruits) remain stable for now, domestic animal feed prices are projected to rise by 8%, and fertiliser costs by 15% to 20%, inevitably leading to higher production and consumer prices in the coming months.<\/p>\n

PETRONAS, supplying about 50% of Malaysia\u2019s fuel, assures secure supplies at its stations nationwide until June. The remaining supply comes from Shell, Petron, BHP, and Caltex. Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani reiterated on April 14 that the government\u2019s capacity to shield businesses and consumers from the fallout of the Israel-led US-Iran war<\/strong> is constrained by limited fiscal space, heavy food imports, and high energy prices. With a RM1.3 trillion national debt<\/strong> and annual food imports costing RM100 billion, which will now increase, and fuel subsidies surging from RM700 million to RM7 billion monthly, Malaysians are urged to “bite the bullet” as the nation enters a crisis mode.<\/p>\n

Long-Term Peace: Reining in Israeli Extremism<\/h2>\n

The ultimate resolution to the conflict between the aggressor Israel-US axis and Iran<\/strong>, and the path to a stable, peaceful Middle East, hinges not on a militarily powerful Iran or Arab nations alone, but fundamentally on the United States reining in Israel<\/strong> and its extremist politicians. These elements harbor dangerous dreams of a “Greater Israel” expanding from Palestine into Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and parts of Saudi Arabia \u2013 a plan that threatens to ignite a full-blown war with the Muslim world, a catastrophe no one desires.<\/p>\n

The US must exert decisive pressure on hardliner leaders in Tel Aviv to abandon this perilous agenda. True peace and prosperity in the Middle East, and the unimpeded flow of crude oil and LNG vital for the global economy, will only materialize when US presidents cease to blindly follow the dictates of Israeli prime ministers and their powerful political lobbyists. Regrettably, for now, this remains a formidable challenge for politicians in Washington D.C.<\/p>\n

Iran’s Unwavering Resolve: A Legacy of Sovereignty<\/h2>\n

At the time of writing, the unjust US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> persists. US President Donald Trump is leveraging this blockade as part of his “art of the deal” tactic to coerce Iran into acceding to most of the US’s and, by extension, Israel’s demands. While a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced, and Trump hinted at a deal with Iran, significant differences remain, particularly Iran’s steadfast rejection of a 20-year freeze on its uranium enrichment program.<\/p>\n

Iran has consistently affirmed its adherence to the 2005 edict of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which unequivocally declares the development and use of nuclear weapons forbidden under Islamic law. Despite this clear assurance, and even after Trump claimed Iranian facilities were obliterated in a previous attack, Iran was again subjected to attacks by Israel and the US under the spurious pretext of being close to waging war. This pattern of aggression fuels Iran’s deep distrust of the US, which, in Iran’s view, prioritizes Israeli interests above all.<\/p>\n

Regardless of the current conflict’s outcome, even if it leads to regime change and a democratically elected government, Iran will, over the long term, continue to strengthen its military capabilities. Iran will not compromise on improving its defense system; future governments, irrespective of their political leanings, are likely to finance this essential expansion. Iran will not tolerate being dictated to or bullied into surrendering its sovereignty, especially after witnessing the US and Israel destroy not only military targets but also schools, universities, bridges, and civilian infrastructure, resulting in thousands of civilian casualties\u2014undeniable war crimes<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

To prevent such atrocities, Iran will inevitably deepen its alliances with China and Russia to counter external pressures. Historians and international relations experts emphasize that Iran’s resilient behavior is rooted in its millennia-old civilization, far predating the US’s relatively short history. From Cyrus the Great’s human rights charter to Darius the Great’s vast empire, and Shah Abbas’s cultural flourishing, Iranian history is replete with a profound sense of sovereignty and the necessity of self-defense. Military strength for Iran is not merely a policy tool but an existential guarantor of dignity and survival.<\/p>\n

This deep-seated mindset transcends any particular regime. Even the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, installed by the US and UK, staunchly defended Iran’s right to control its oil resources and resist foreign imposition, famously stating, “We won\u2019t be pushed around… The Strait of Hormuz is our jugular vein. We live by it. No one can invade us without being forced to crush us, and we are not going to surrender.” This historical perspective underscores that Iran’s determination to defend itself is an intrinsic national characteristic.<\/p>\n

At press time, Iran has confirmed the Strait of Hormuz remains “completely open”<\/strong> to commercial ships for the remainder of the ceasefire, a testament to its commitment to international navigation despite ongoing provocations.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

#MiddleEastCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #IranSovereignty #USIsraelAggression #GlobalEnergy #MalaysiaEconomy #EconomicResilience #WarCrimes #PeaceInMiddleEast #Geopolitics<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on April 20, 2026 – April 26, 2026 Ceasefires in the Middle East are, regrettably, often fragile. As we observe, the supposedly two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, brokered by Pakistan, is already showing concerning signs of strain. Tensions are unfortunately expected to escalate […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4788,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle-east-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4787"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4787\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4788"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}