\u0130\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcveni 2024 sonlar\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye geriledi. Aral\u0131k anketinde %39 olan ekonomik iyile\u015fme beklentisi, net %1’e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130\u015fletmeler istikrarl\u0131 talep bildiriyor ve gelecek \u00e7eyrekte iyile\u015fme bekliyor. RBNZ’nin Temmuz ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ba\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 %3 civar\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, zay\u0131f talep fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
NZIER \u0130\u015fletme G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri \u00c7eyrek Anketine (QSBO) g\u00f6re, k\u00fcresel jeopolitik gerilimlerin firmalar\u0131n ekonomi beklentilerini olumsuz etkilemesiyle i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcveni, 2024 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. 6 Mart ile 10 Nisan tarihleri aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan anket, firmalar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca net %1’inin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda genel ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015fmesini bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu oran Aral\u0131k \u00e7eyre\u011findeki net %39’dan \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. NZIER, anket d\u00f6nemi ilerledik\u00e7e g\u00fcvenin k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti\u011fini, bunun ABD, \u0130srail ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerindeki yeni aksakl\u0131klarla ayn\u0131 zamana denk geldi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet g\u00fcvenindeki keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen, firmalar\u0131n kendi ticari faaliyetleri Mart \u00e7eyre\u011finde mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda genel olarak sabit kald\u0131; bu, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekte firmalar\u0131n net %3’\u00fcn\u00fcn faaliyetlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bildirdi\u011fi duruma g\u00f6re hafif bir iyile\u015fme. \u0130\u015fletmeler gelecek \u00e7eyrekteki talep konusunda da bir miktar daha iyimserdi, bu da k\u00fcresel geli\u015fmelerin g\u00fcvene verdi\u011fi darbelere ra\u011fmen i\u00e7 ko\u015fullar\u0131n diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Sekt\u00f6rler Aras\u0131nda B\u00fcy\u00fck Ayr\u0131l\u0131k<\/p>\n
Ancak, genel anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda \u00f6nemli farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 gizliyordu. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc en k\u00f6t\u00fcmser olan\u0131yd\u0131; in\u015faat firmalar\u0131n\u0131n net %28’i genel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde bir k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fme bekliyordu. NZIER, zay\u0131f in\u015faat talebinin karamsar havaya katk\u0131da bulundu\u011funu ve bir\u00e7ok firman\u0131n Mart \u00e7eyre\u011finde yeni sipari\u015flerde ve \u00fcretimde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler bildirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc en iyimser olan\u0131yd\u0131; imalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n net %34’\u00fc \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015fmesini bekliyordu. NZIER, imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00e7eyrek boyunca sa\u011flam uluslararas\u0131 talebi yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fe Al\u0131m ve Yat\u0131r\u0131mda Temkinlilik<\/p>\n
Ancak bu g\u00fcven, i\u015fe al\u0131m veya yat\u0131r\u0131ma yans\u0131m\u0131yor. Firmalar\u0131n net %9’u Mart \u00e7eyre\u011finde personel say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131, net %5’i ise gelecek \u00e7eyrekte personel say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 tekrar azaltmay\u0131 bekliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131m niyetleri de zay\u0131flad\u0131; firmalar\u0131n net %12’si \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l binalara yap\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 azaltmay\u0131, net %9’u ise tesis ve makinelere yap\u0131lan harcamalar\u0131 k\u0131smay\u0131 planl\u0131yor. NZIER ba\u015f ekonomisti Christina Leung, jeopolitik risklerin mevcut belirsizli\u011fe eklenmesi ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flayan k\u0131r\u0131lgan toparlanmay\u0131 potansiyel olarak tehdit etmesiyle i\u015fletmelerin daha temkinli hale geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen Leung, zay\u0131f talebin firmalar\u0131n artan maliyetleri m\u00fc\u015fterilere yans\u0131tma yetene\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya devam etmesi nedeniyle maliyet ve fiyatland\u0131rma bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n genel olarak kontrol alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. NZIER’in, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l geli\u015fece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olmakla birlikte, Temmuz ay\u0131nda resmi nakit faiz oran\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeye devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u015eimdilik, firmalar aras\u0131ndaki enflasyon beklentileri, Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n hedef band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n, yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 seviyesinde kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ancak h\u0131zlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
#\u0130\u015fD\u00fcnyas\u0131G\u00fcveni #Ekonomi #OrtaDo\u011fu\u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 #JeopolitikRiskler #Enflasyon #MerkezBankas\u0131 #FaizArt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 #TedarikZinciri #Yat\u0131r\u0131mNiyetleri #K\u00fcreselEkonomi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcveni 2024 sonlar\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye geriledi. Aral\u0131k anketinde %39 olan ekonomik iyile\u015fme beklentisi, net %1’e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130\u015fletmeler istikrarl\u0131 talep bildiriyor ve gelecek \u00e7eyrekte iyile\u015fme bekliyor. RBNZ’nin Temmuz ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ba\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 %3 civar\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, zay\u0131f talep fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. NZIER \u0130\u015fletme G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri \u00c7eyrek Anketine (QSBO) g\u00f6re, k\u00fcresel […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4760,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4759","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4759"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4759\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4760"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4759"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4759"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4759"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}