\u0130\u015fte size yar\u0131 iyi haber, yar\u0131 da yay\u0131nland\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda g\u00fcncelli\u011fini yitirmi\u015f bir anket.
\nKanada Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (BoC) 1. \u00c7eyrek \u0130\u015f G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Anketi bu sabah a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131 ve ana ba\u015fl\u0131k, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Trump’\u0131n ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nceki seviyesine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Daha az firma tarifelerden endi\u015fe duyuyor, sat\u0131\u015f beklentileri art arda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fckseldi, yat\u0131r\u0131m niyetleri ticaret gerilimleri ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesinde ve i\u015fe al\u0131m niyetleri normalle\u015fiyor.
\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7inde resesyon planlayan veya b\u00fct\u00e7e ay\u0131ran firmalar\u0131n oran\u0131 %22’den %9’a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu, sorunun 2023’te sorulmaya ba\u015flanmas\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye. Bu kayda de\u011fer bir hareket.
\nAncak bir sorun var: Anket g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu, Orta Do\u011fu’daki sava\u015f ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce, 25 \u015eubat’ta tamamland\u0131. Bu y\u00fczden BoC, amiral gemisi anketinin olaylar taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda iyi bir merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yapaca\u011f\u0131 \u015feyi yapt\u0131: 18-27 Mart tarihleri aras\u0131nda en \u00e7ok etkilenen 20 firmayla takip g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi.
\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden elde edilen bilgilere g\u00f6re, yak\u0131t, g\u00fcbre, navlun veya al\u00fcminyumla ilgili herkes i\u00e7in girdi maliyetleri \u015fimdiden hareketleniyor. \u00c7ift\u00e7iler bu ekim sezonu i\u00e7in \u00e7o\u011funlukla iyi durumda \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fcbrelerini zaten sat\u0131n alm\u0131\u015flard\u0131, ancak bu bir zamanlama tuhafl\u0131\u011f\u0131, bir rahatlama de\u011fil. Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k firmalar\u0131, s\u00f6zle\u015fme maddeleri arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla artan yak\u0131t maliyetlerini yans\u0131tabileceklerini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Di\u011fer herkes ise talep \u00e7ok zay\u0131f, t\u00fcketiciler \u00e7ok t\u00fckenmi\u015f ve rekabet fiyatlar\u0131 kolayca yans\u0131tamayacak kadar sert oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in marj s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.
\nEnflasyon beklentileri k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fckseldi; bu tamamen sava\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra Mart ay\u0131nda anket yap\u0131lan firmalardan kaynakland\u0131. Uzun vadeli beklentiler %2,5 ile %3 aras\u0131nda seyrediyor ve genel olarak de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu, bir enerji \u015foku hikayesi, enflasyon rejiminin yeniden ayarlanmas\u0131 de\u011fil. En az\u0131ndan hen\u00fcz de\u011fil.
\nDe\u011finmeye de\u011fer birka\u00e7 \u00f6nemli nokta daha:
\n\u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri %3,5 civar\u0131nda sabit ve firmalar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda \u00fccretlerin son 12 aya g\u00f6re daha yava\u015f artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten \u00f6nemsedi\u011fi detay bu.
\n1 Temmuz’da ilk ortak incelemesi yap\u0131lacak olan USMCA (ABD-Meksika-Kanada Anla\u015fmas\u0131) konusunda, \u00e7o\u011fu firma bunu k\u0131sa vadeli planlar\u0131 aktif olarak \u015fekillendiren bir \u015feyden ziyade bir risk olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ancak \u00e7o\u011fu, incelemenin Kanadal\u0131 ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 bug\u00fcnk\u00fcnden daha y\u00fcksek ortalama tarife oranlar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bu tam olarak bir g\u00fcvenoyu de\u011fil.
\nABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki pazarlara ticari \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde teorik kalmaya devam ediyor. Birka\u00e7 firma ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131 pazarlara ad\u0131m atarken, di\u011ferleri ya \u00e7abaya de\u011fmedi\u011fini ya da nakliye maliyetlerinin i\u015fe yaramad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.
\nSonu\u00e7 olarak, bu, BoC’nin tek ba\u015f\u0131na sevmi\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 bir anket: duyarl\u0131l\u0131k toparlan\u0131yor, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar art\u0131yor, resesyon korkular\u0131 azal\u0131yor, enflasyon beklentileri sabitleniyor. Ne yaz\u0131k ki, \u015eubat ay\u0131n\u0131n sonunda her \u015fey de\u011fi\u015fti.
\n#KanadaEkonomisi #\u0130\u015fG\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc #MerkezBankas\u0131 #EnflasyonBeklentileri #OrtaDo\u011fuSava\u015f\u0131 #GirdiMaliyetleri #ResesyonKorkusu #TicaretAnla\u015fmalar\u0131 #\u00dccretArt\u0131\u015f\u0131 #K\u00fcreselEkonomi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130\u015fte size yar\u0131 iyi haber, yar\u0131 da yay\u0131nland\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda g\u00fcncelli\u011fini yitirmi\u015f bir anket. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (BoC) 1. \u00c7eyrek \u0130\u015f G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Anketi bu sabah a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131 ve ana ba\u015fl\u0131k, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Trump’\u0131n ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nceki seviyesine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Daha az firma tarifelerden endi\u015fe duyuyor, sat\u0131\u015f beklentileri art arda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fckseldi, yat\u0131r\u0131m niyetleri […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4235,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4234","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4234","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4234"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4234\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4235"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4234"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4234"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4234"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}