B\u00f6lgedeki artan gerilimler ve \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik dayat\u0131lan bask\u0131lar, k\u00fcresel emtia piyasalar\u0131nda derin sars\u0131nt\u0131lara yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ham petrol<\/strong>, s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz (LNG)<\/strong>, g\u00fcbreler<\/strong>, petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnleri<\/strong> ve al\u00fcminyum<\/strong> gibi stratejik \u00f6neme sahip emtialar, ciddi arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131, artan maliyetler ve y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131kla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131<\/strong>‘ndaki kritik aksakl\u0131klar, k\u00fcresel enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131s\u0131tlayarak petrol ve LNG piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 derinden etkilemi\u015f, uzun s\u00fcreli arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 riskini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n Bu durum, g\u0131da g\u00fcvenli\u011fini tehdit eden g\u00fcbre k\u0131tl\u0131klar\u0131, plastik enflasyonunu k\u00f6r\u00fckleyen petrokimya kesintileri ve son on y\u0131llar\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yla bo\u011fu\u015fan al\u00fcminyum piyasalar\u0131 gibi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc end\u00fcstrilerde de hissedilmektedir. Ortado\u011fu’daki bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 ortam, k\u00fcresel enerji, petrokimya, tar\u0131m ve deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rleri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok alanda geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 arz \u015foklar\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftur. K\u00fcresel deniz yoluyla petrol ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %27’sini kar\u015f\u0131layan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki denizcilik aksakl\u0131klar\u0131, tarihi k\u0131tl\u0131klara ve K\u00f6rfez enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131 \u00fczerinde uzun vadeli operasyonel bask\u0131lara yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Katar’daki hasar g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz (LNG) tesislerinin onar\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n be\u015f y\u0131la kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi tahmin edilmektedir. Devam eden gerilimi azaltma \u00e7abalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, tankerlerin yeniden y\u00f6nlendirilmesi ve sava\u015f riski primleri, enerji ve rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnler i\u00e7in yap\u0131sal olarak daha y\u00fcksek fiyat tabanlar\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 beklenmektedir. \u0130\u015fte \u0130ran ve b\u00f6lgesel gerilimlerden en \u00e7ok etkilenen ilk 5 emtia:<\/p>\n Bu, a\u00e7\u0131k ara en b\u00fcy\u00fck etki alan\u0131d\u0131r. K\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20’si normalde Suudi Arabistan, Irak, Kuveyt, BAE ve Katar’dan yap\u0131lan ihracat dahil olmak \u00fczere H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7mektedir. \u00c7in, Hindistan, Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore gibi Asyal\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar \u00f6zellikle bu duruma maruz kalmaktad\u0131r. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>, k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve gerilimin azalmas\u0131yla y\u00f6n bularak b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde man\u015fet odakl\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Orta ve uzun vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n ise stratejik rezerv al\u0131mlar\u0131, kaynak milliyet\u00e7ili\u011fine ve stok\u00e7ulu\u011fa odaklanma ile aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu lojistik gecikmelerle desteklenmesi beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n Ancak, uzun s\u00fcreli bir kapanma felaketle sonu\u00e7lanacak bir arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir, ticari rezervleri t\u00fcketebilir, fiziki kargo primlerini tarihi seviyelere \u00e7\u0131karabilir ve Brent gibi k\u00fcresel g\u00f6sterge fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n keskin bir \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesine neden olabilir. An\u0131nda teslimat tehdit edildi\u011finde, fiziki ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 (Kuzey Denizi Forties gibi) finansal vadeli i\u015flemlerden ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Al\u0131c\u0131lar, mevcut engellenmemi\u015f variller i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck primler \u00f6der ve bu da an\u0131nda fiziki piyasa s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. Do\u011frudan Basra K\u00f6rfezi ihracat rotalar\u0131n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131, uzun dolamba\u00e7l\u0131 yollar\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131lar. \u00dcmit Burnu \u00e7evresinden yeniden y\u00f6nlendirilen tankerler, deniz sigortas\u0131 primlerinde ve nakliye s\u00fcrelerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131\u00e7ramalara neden olarak, fiziki ham petrol\u00fcn nihai maliyetine a\u011f\u0131r bir lojistik prim eklemektedir.<\/p>\n Katar, geleneksel olarak k\u00fcresel s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20’sini olu\u015fturan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck LNG<\/strong> ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndan biridir. Ba\u015fta devasa Ras Laffan Sanayi \u015eehri’nden faaliyet g\u00f6steren \u00fclke, \u00c7in, Hindistan ve Japonya gibi ba\u015fl\u0131ca Asya pazarlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Avrupa’ya da kritik uzun vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle tedarik sa\u011flamaktad\u0131r. LNG kargolar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse tamam\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7mektedir.<\/p>\n Do\u011fal gaz piyasalar\u0131, Ortado\u011fu gaz arz\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli kayb\u0131yla \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede iyi ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kmaya devam etmi\u015ftir; bunun temel nedeni, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri’nde LNG kapasitesine beklenen eklemelerdir. Ancak, LNG piyasalar\u0131 yap\u0131sal olarak petrolden daha s\u0131k\u0131d\u0131r \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc alternatif arz\u0131 yeniden y\u00f6nlendirmek daha zordur ve yedek ihracat kapasitesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. T\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131klar meydana geldi\u011finde genellikle alternatif kara boru hatlar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirilebilen veya farkl\u0131 b\u00f6lgesel limanlar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ta\u015f\u0131nabilen ham petrol\u00fcn aksine, LNG son derece spesifik, yerelle\u015fmi\u015f kriyojenik altyap\u0131 gerektirir. LNG tamamen ihracat noktas\u0131ndaki \u00f6zel s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma tesislerine ve var\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131ndaki yeniden gazla\u015ft\u0131rma terminallerine (veya FSRU’lara) ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Ek olarak, ABD ve Avustralya dahil olmak \u00fczere K\u00f6rfez d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerden gelen alternatif arz, Basra K\u00f6rfezi hacimlerinin kayb\u0131n\u0131 telafi etmek i\u00e7in yetersizdir. Piyasay\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in, end\u00fcstriyel talep y\u0131k\u0131m\u0131 ve zorunlu elektrik k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131 meydana gelene kadar JKM gibi Asya LNG spot fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n dramatik bir \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesi gerekecektir.<\/p>\n Bu, en az takdir edilen risklerden biridir. K\u00f6rfez \u00fcreticileri, \u00fcre<\/strong>, amonyak<\/strong>, k\u00fck\u00fcrt<\/strong> ve fosfat g\u00fcbreleri<\/strong>nin ba\u015fl\u0131ca ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131d\u0131r. G\u00fcbre \u00fcretimi, hem yak\u0131t hem de hammadde olarak do\u011fal gaza b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131d\u0131r. K\u00f6rfez enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve k\u00fcresel olarak ticareti yap\u0131lan g\u00fcbrelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te birini ta\u015f\u0131yan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ablukas\u0131, azot ve fosfat g\u00fcbreleri i\u00e7in f\u0131rlayan fiyatlara, yayg\u0131n arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131na ve artan \u00fcretim maliyetlerine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. ABD’de \u00fcre ve susuz amonyak gibi azotlu g\u00fcbrelerin toptan fiyatlar\u0131 %30 ila %40 oran\u0131nda artarken; azot bazl\u0131 g\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fcnya genelinde \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckselmi\u015f, \u00fcre fiyatlar\u0131 ise savunmas\u0131z piyasalarda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n Sahra Alt\u0131 Afrika, Hindistan, Pakistan ve Banglade\u015f gibi \u00fclkeler, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ithalat alternatifleri ve y\u00fcksek maliyetler nedeniyle yerel mahsul verimleri ve g\u0131da g\u00fcvenli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli tehditlerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. AB, Ortado\u011fu g\u00fcbrelerine do\u011frudan daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olsa da, Avrupa azotlu g\u00fcbresi do\u011fal gaz kullan\u0131larak \u00fcretilmektedir. K\u00fcresel gaz arz\u0131ndaki k\u0131s\u0131tlama, Avrupa g\u00fcbre \u00fcretim maliyetlerini f\u0131rlatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n \u0130ran ve b\u00f6lgesel gerilimler, k\u00fcresel nafta<\/strong> ve petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnleri<\/strong> arz\u0131n\u0131 ciddi \u015fekilde k\u0131s\u0131tlam\u0131\u015f, bu da f\u0131rlayan hammadde fiyatlar\u0131na, Asya buhar krakerlerinde \u00fcretim kesintilerine ve plastikler ile t\u0131bbi malzemeler gibi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde b\u00fcy\u00fck enflasyona yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n Asya’da nafta rafineri marjlar\u0131 Brent ham petrol\u00fcne g\u00f6re ton ba\u015f\u0131na 400 dolar\u0131 a\u015farken, kuzeybat\u0131 Avrupa’da fiyatlar ton ba\u015f\u0131na 900 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Nafta, plastiklerin temel yap\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev piyasalar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck enflasyon ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f, Dalian Emtia Borsas\u0131’nda polietilen ve polipropilen fiyatlar\u0131 %35’in \u00fczerinde artarken, k\u00fcresel plastik re\u00e7ineleri %30’dan fazla s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, naftan\u0131n %60’\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131 i\u00e7in Ortado\u011fu’ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan Asyal\u0131 petrokimya \u00fcreticileri, ciddi k\u0131tl\u0131klarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmakta, bu da onlar\u0131 i\u015fletme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye ve \u00fcretimi k\u0131smaya zorlamaktad\u0131r. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki m\u00fcteakip ablukalar, yakla\u015f\u0131k 20-25 milyar dolarl\u0131k petrokimya ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 durdurarak Katar ve Kuveyt gibi \u00fclkelerden yap\u0131lan Ortado\u011fu ihracat\u0131n\u0131 ciddi \u015fekilde etkilemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n Polietilen k\u0131tl\u0131klar\u0131, \u00fcretim zincirlerini do\u011frudan aksatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Japonya’daki g\u0131da \u015firketleri, plastik hammaddesi eksikli\u011fi nedeniyle ambalajlama s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmek zorunda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu arada, t\u0131bbi eldivenler ve \u015f\u0131r\u0131ngalar gibi sentetik kau\u00e7uk ve polimerlere ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler de dahil olmak \u00fczere sa\u011fl\u0131k hizmetleri tedarik zincirleri, %40’a varan maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve yerel k\u0131tl\u0131k tehditleri ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n K\u00fcresel al\u00fcminyum<\/strong> piyasas\u0131, Ortado\u011fu’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi varolu\u015fsal bir arz kriziyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. K\u00fcresel al\u00fcminyum piyasas\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131 i\u00e7eren askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n etkisiyle son 25 y\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015famaktad\u0131r; b\u00fcy\u00fck Ortado\u011fu izabe tesislerine y\u00f6nelik f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve nakliye ablukalar\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u00fcretimin %5’ine kadar\u0131n\u0131 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Devam eden nakliye ablukas\u0131, \u00c7in d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ihra\u00e7 edilen al\u00fcminyumun %23’\u00fcn\u00fc keserken, alumina ve karbon boksit gibi hayati hammaddelerin deniz yoluyla giri\u015fini de durdurmaktad\u0131r. Wall Street, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar en az 2 milyon metrik ton rafine al\u00fcminyum a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmektedir.<\/p>\n Do\u011frudan f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, Abu Dabi’deki Emirates Global Aluminium’un Al Taweelah tesisi ve Aluminium Bahrain izabe tesisi gibi bir\u00e7ok kritik K\u00f6rfez \u00fcretim tesisini fiziksel olarak sakatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Tamamen kapat\u0131lan al\u00fcminyum izabe tesislerini yeniden ba\u015flatmak, yeniden in\u015fa i\u00e7in 12 ila 18 ay s\u00fcren zorlu bir s\u00fcre\u00e7tir, bu da jeopolitik gerilimler hemen hafiflese bile bu arz\u0131n \u00e7evrimd\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmektedir.<\/p>\n Ortado\u011fu, Amerikan ve Avrupa al\u00fcminyum ithalat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birini olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fcreticiler, s\u0131k\u0131 tarifeler ve ticaret yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 nedeniyle \u00c7in veya Rusya gibi alternatif tedarik\u00e7ilere kolayca y\u00f6nelememektedir.<\/p>\n Alex Kimani taraf\u0131ndan Oilprice.com i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n #\u0130ranGerilimi #EmtiaPiyasalar\u0131 #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #PetrolFiyatlar\u0131 #LNG #G\u00fcbreK\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 #Petrokimya #Al\u00fcminyumKrizi #K\u00fcreselEkonomi #Arz\u015eoku<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u0130ran’a Y\u00f6nelik Bask\u0131lar ve B\u00f6lgesel Gerilimlerin K\u00fcresel Emtia Piyasalar\u0131na Etkisi: En \u00c7ok Etkilenen 5 \u00dcr\u00fcn B\u00f6lgedeki artan gerilimler ve \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik dayat\u0131lan bask\u0131lar, k\u00fcresel emtia piyasalar\u0131nda derin sars\u0131nt\u0131lara yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ham petrol, s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz (LNG), g\u00fcbreler, petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ve al\u00fcminyum gibi stratejik \u00f6neme sahip emtialar, ciddi arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131, artan maliyetler ve y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131kla kar\u015f\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":30823,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30822","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30822"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30822\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/30823"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30822"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}1. Ham Petrol<\/h2>\n
2. LNG (S\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Do\u011fal Gaz)<\/h2>\n
3. G\u00fcbreler (\u00dcre, Amonyak, DAP)<\/h2>\n
4. Petrokimya \u00dcr\u00fcnleri \/ Nafta<\/h2>\n
5. Al\u00fcminyum<\/h2>\n