Lyndon B. Johnson, 1965’te Vietnam Sava\u015f\u0131’n\u0131 hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karan bir konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, amac\u0131n “her \u00fclkenin kendi kaderini \u015fekillendirebilmesini” sa\u011flamak oldu\u011funu, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ancak b\u00f6yle bir d\u00fcnyada ABD’nin kendi \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na alabilece\u011fini savunmu\u015ftu. Ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda, “insan\u0131n zay\u0131fl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6yleydi ki, g\u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ak\u0131ldan \u00f6nce gelmeli ve sava\u015f\u0131n israf\u0131, bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n eserleri olmal\u0131yd\u0131” diye itiraf etmi\u015fti.
\nBu, ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k ABD ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131n konu\u015fma yazarlar\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f zamanlar\u0131nda ba\u015fvurdu\u011fu, \u00fclkenin ahlaki misyonunun zarif bir gerek\u00e7esiydi.
\nS\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z askeri \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fckle g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ve b\u00f6ylesine asil niyetlerle dolu olan ABD ba\u015fkanlar\u0131, kendilerini tamamen yanl\u0131\u015f de\u011ferlendirdikleri daha zay\u0131f bir rakibi yenememeleri nedeniyle defalarca sava\u015f ba\u015flatmaya s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmi\u015f, ard\u0131ndan \u015fa\u015fk\u0131na d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f, tuza\u011fa d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f ve nihayetinde k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r.
\nBu kaderin Donald Trump’\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na asla gelmeyece\u011fini varsaymak g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyordu. Destek\u00e7ilerinin g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015famlar\u0131ndan kopuk g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bitmek bilmeyen sava\u015flara kar\u015f\u0131 uzla\u015fmaz bir \u015fekilde kar\u015f\u0131yd\u0131. Askeri g\u00fcc\u00fc asla askeri zaferle e\u015f tutmazd\u0131.
\nAncak Trump’\u0131n “\u0130ran’a k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck gezisi”, dola\u015f\u0131mdaki potansiyel bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 taslaklar\u0131na bak\u0131l\u0131rsa, evrensel olarak bir yenilgi olarak alg\u0131lan\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7 ne olursa olsun \u2013 b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla eski stat\u00fckoya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f \u2013 sava\u015f k\u00f6t\u00fc tasarlanm\u0131\u015f, karma\u015f\u0131k hedeflerin, k\u00f6t\u00fc planlaman\u0131n ve yanl\u0131\u015f varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n bir an\u0131t\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.
\nElbette, mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, y\u0131llarca s\u00fcren, 58.220 ABD askerinin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne yol a\u00e7an ve genellikle ABD’nin kibrinin sembolik ve e\u015fsiz bir \u00f6rne\u011fi olarak alg\u0131lanan Vietnam Sava\u015f\u0131 ile \u00f6l\u00e7ek olarak e\u015fle\u015fmiyor. Vietnam maceras\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130ran daha \u00e7ok g\u00fcn\u00fcbirlik bir gezi gibi hissettiriyor.
\nAncak sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, bu “gezi” rakipsiz s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7 i\u00e7in daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir jeopolitik d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olabilir; ABD’nin bir sava\u015f\u0131 sadece ikna edici bir sava\u015f plan\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f d\u00fcnyan\u0131n i\u015fleyi\u015fine uygun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir stratejisi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in de k\u00f6t\u00fc y\u00f6netti\u011fini kabul etmek zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131 an. Birbirine ba\u011fl\u0131 bir d\u00fcnyada Trump, ilerlemenin i\u015f birli\u011fiyle de\u011fil, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yor.
\nTrump i\u00e7in ironik bir \u015fekilde, Vietnam’\u0131n g\u00f6lgesi her zaman b\u00fcy\u00fck olmu\u015ftur ve bu sadece askerlikten defalarca ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011fil. Bir\u00e7ok y\u00f6nden siyasi \u00e7ekicili\u011fi Vietnam’dan do\u011fmu\u015ftur. Pulitzer \u00f6d\u00fcll\u00fc yazar ve Harvard \u00dcniversitesi tarih profes\u00f6r\u00fc Fredrik Logevall, yak\u0131n zamanda “Amerika’y\u0131 bug\u00fcn rahats\u0131z eden bir\u00e7ok sorunun \u2013 yabanc\u0131la\u015fma, k\u0131rg\u0131nl\u0131k, sinizm, h\u00fck\u00fcmete g\u00fcvensizlik, sivil s\u00f6ylemin ve sivil kurumlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kurumlarda hesap verebilirli\u011fin eksikli\u011fi \u2013 k\u00f6klerinin Vietnam sava\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6neminde yatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131” savundu.
\n“Amerikal\u0131lar\u0131n Vietnam d\u00f6nemi ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndaki safl\u0131ktan sinizme ge\u00e7ti\u011fini \u2013 ve bizi h\u00fck\u00fcmetten uzakla\u015ft\u0131ran, de\u011fi\u015fime inanma ve de\u011fi\u015fim i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc yok etti\u011fi i\u00e7in demokrasiyi tehdit eden bir sinizme \u2013 ge\u00e7ti\u011fini iddia edebilirsiniz” dedi.
\nTrump’\u0131n ye\u015ferece\u011fi yer, bu kutupla\u015fm\u0131\u015f siyasi ekosistemdi.
\nA\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131n ABD \u00fczerindeki i\u00e7 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 asla Vietnam’la e\u015fle\u015fmeyecek. Do\u011fru, sava\u015f ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7tan itibaren pop\u00fcler de\u011fildi, ancak toplum onun taraf\u0131ndan par\u00e7alanmad\u0131. Sadece 13 ceset torbas\u0131, her biri ki\u015fisel bir trajedi, eve g\u00f6nderildi. En fazla, enerji \u015fokunun neden oldu\u011fu enflasyon, zaten pop\u00fcler olmayan bir ba\u015fkan\u0131n ara se\u00e7imlerde cezaland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak, ki bu durumun kendisini ilgilendirmedi\u011fini iddia ediyor.
\nAncak \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n daha uzun s\u00fcreli olabilece\u011fi iddia edilebilir. Nisan 1975’teki Saygon’un d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, geni\u015f \u00e7apta tahmin edilen k\u00fcresel bir etki yaratmad\u0131. Henry Kissinger ve Johnson’\u0131n korktu\u011fu gibi, kom\u00fcnizmin G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya’y\u0131 s\u00fcp\u00fcrece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen “domino etkisi”, Kambo\u00e7ya ve Laos d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi.
\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Trump’\u0131n tercih etti\u011fi sava\u015f, bir\u00e7ok alanda etki yaratacak bir yenilgi sinyali gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.
\nBu, \u0130srail’in rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi yaratmaya y\u00f6nelik 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u0130ran stratejisinin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc i\u015faret ediyor ve bu \u0130srail h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Washington’daki etkisinin zaten h\u0131zl\u0131 olan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131racak. \u0130srail askeri istihbarat\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran \u015fubesinin eski ba\u015fkan\u0131 Danny Citrinowicz, sava\u015f\u0131 \u0130srail i\u00e7in operasyonel bir ba\u015far\u0131 ancak stratejik bir fiyasko olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor.
\nSava\u015f ayr\u0131ca K\u00f6rfez monar\u015filerini, ABD \u00fcslerinin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ekonomilerinin \u00e7e\u015fitlenmesi i\u00e7in gereken g\u00fcvenli\u011fi sa\u011flay\u0131p sa\u011flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorusu da dahil olmak \u00fczere jeopolitik ili\u015fkilerini derinden yeniden de\u011ferlendirmeye itiyor. Yeni \u0130ran dini lideri Mojtaba Khamenei, ABD \u00fcslerine deste\u011fin asla geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclemeyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken hayalperest davran\u0131yor olabilir. Ancak ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde, Trump’\u0131n Suudi Arabistan veya Katar gibi \u00fclkelerin \u015fimdi \u0130srail ile ili\u015fkileri normalle\u015ftirece\u011fi veya \u0130brahim Anla\u015fmalar\u0131’na kat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 iddialar\u0131, eski ABD’nin \u0130srail b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi Dan Shapiro’nun deyimiyle “ye\u015fil peynirden yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir ay kadar yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131” geliyor.
\nEski ABD Ortado\u011fu M\u00fcste\u015far\u0131 Barbara Leaf, ge\u00e7en hafta bir seminerde, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin kusurlu bir bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 tercih edece\u011fini, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ba\u015fka bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolu g\u00f6rmediklerini s\u00f6yledi.
\nSava\u015f \u00f6\u011frencileri i\u00e7in, ucuz dronlar\u0131n modern \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir dengeleyici oldu\u011fu teyit edildi \u2013 \u0130ran’\u0131n Ukrayna \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan Pentagon’dan daha iyi \u00f6\u011frendi\u011fi bir ders. ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 Pete Hegseth, ilk ayda 13.000 hedefi vurarak “g\u00f6kten \u00f6l\u00fcm ve y\u0131k\u0131m” vaat etti, ancak bu zafer getirmedi, sadece ABD f\u00fcze stoklar\u0131n\u0131n ve hazinesinin endi\u015fe verici t\u00fckeni\u015fini sa\u011flad\u0131.
\nSonu\u00e7lar\u0131n Avrupa’y\u0131 sert bir \u015fekilde vurmas\u0131 muhtemel. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l k\u00fcresel ekonomik sisteme s\u0131zan ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma ile Fransa, Almanya ve \u0130ngiltere’deki merkezci iktidarlar, AB’nin yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 sarsacak bir se\u00e7im yenilgisiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilirler. Trump’\u0131n, “korkak\u00e7a” yard\u0131m\u0131na gelmeyi reddetmeleri nedeniyle ABD askerlerini NATO \u00fclkelerinden \u00e7ekme tehdidini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesi halinde iktidardakilerin g\u00f6revi daha da zorla\u015facak.
\nD\u0131\u015f \u0130li\u015fkiler Konseyi’nin \u00f6rnekledi\u011fi ABD d\u0131\u015f politika kurulu\u015fu i\u00e7in, \u0130ran’daki yanl\u0131\u015f ad\u0131mlar, Trump’\u0131n son derece ki\u015fiselle\u015ftirilmi\u015f, i\u00e7g\u00fcd\u00fcsel y\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 diplomasi sisteminin sadece daha fazla d\u00fczensizlik yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nihai teyididir.
\nGe\u00e7en hafta, D\u0131\u015f \u0130li\u015fkiler Konseyi (CFR), Trump sonras\u0131 ABD stratejisinin temel bir incelemesini ba\u015flatt\u0131. Toplant\u0131y\u0131 d\u00fczenleyen Rebecca Lissner, sava\u015f\u0131n “zaten ya\u015fam deste\u011finde olan ABD liderli\u011findeki uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczene potansiyel olarak \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl bir darbe vurdu\u011fu” konusunda uyard\u0131. M\u00fcttefikler \u00f6nlem al\u0131yor, orta g\u00fc\u00e7ler kendi koalisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor ve bir zamanlar Washington’\u0131n y\u00f6r\u00fcngesinde s\u0131k\u0131ca bulunan b\u00f6lgeler yeni g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezlerine do\u011fru kay\u0131yor, dedi. Eski D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yetkilisi Mira Rapp-Hooper, Chatham House’da daha ac\u0131mas\u0131zd\u0131 ve bunu s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7 intihar\u0131 olarak nitelendirdi.
\nK\u0131sa vadede, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131ndan iki soru Demokratlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne at\u0131ld\u0131 ve asl\u0131nda zaten cevapland\u0131. ABD’nin \u0130srail ve liderli\u011fine bu kadar yak\u0131n olmas\u0131 ABD’nin \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131na hizmet etti mi? ABD, de\u011ferlere, hukuka ve kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na dayal\u0131 ittifaklara geri d\u00f6nerse daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmaz m\u0131yd\u0131?
\nZay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f, yoksulla\u015fm\u0131\u015f ama yine de cesaretlenmi\u015f \u0130ran i\u00e7in yol belirsiz. Tahran, n\u00fckleer program\u0131 hakk\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde, \u015eubat ay\u0131nda Cenevre’de sunmaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir\u00e7ok taviz de dahil olmak \u00fczere, tavizler vermek zorunda kalabilir. \u0130ran’\u0131n i\u00e7 siyaseti tahmin edilemez, ancak bu daha askeri bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet ve ayn\u0131 zamanda parlamentodaki en sert muhafazakarlar marjinalle\u015ftirildi. Uluslararas\u0131 Kriz Grubu’ndan Ali Vaez, sava\u015f\u0131n \u0130ran’a \u00fc\u00e7 hediye verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor: ideolojik canlanma, \u0130ran i\u00e7inde yabanc\u0131 askeri m\u00fcdahalenin itibars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k stratejisinin onar\u0131lmas\u0131. ABD, \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 nihai cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u2013 sava\u015f\u0131 \u2013 kulland\u0131 ve i\u015fe yaramad\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’nda \u0130ran, co\u011frafyan\u0131n ve k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin kendisine paha bi\u00e7ilmez bir varl\u0131k kazand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fark etti; bu varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fersizle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in y\u0131llarca yeni boru hatt\u0131 in\u015faat\u0131 gerekecek.
\n\u015ea\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmayan bir \u015fekilde, Trump’\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 hakk\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel kararlar o kadar evrensel olarak mahkum edici ki, 50 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir maliyetle onu esasen ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yere geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrecek bir belgeyi imzalamaktan ac\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor ve \u00e7ekiniyor. Onun zor durumu, Johnson’\u0131n 1965’te e\u015fi Lady Bird’e anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumu an\u0131msat\u0131yor: “B\u00fcy\u00fck zayiat listeleriyle i\u00e7eri girmek ya da utan\u00e7la \u00e7\u0131kmak aras\u0131nda bir se\u00e7imim var. Bir u\u00e7akta olmak gibi ve u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmekle atlamak aras\u0131nda se\u00e7im yapmal\u0131y\u0131m. Para\u015f\u00fct\u00fcm yok.”
\nGer\u00e7ekten de, D\u0131\u015f \u0130li\u015fkiler Konseyi’nden Gideon Rose’un Foreign Affairs’ta yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, Trump birka\u00e7 k\u0131sa ay i\u00e7inde Vietnam’\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu \u00e7e\u015fitli yas a\u015famalar\u0131ndan h\u0131zla ge\u00e7mi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Rose, Trump’\u0131n \u00f6nce Johnson’\u0131n “giri\u015f, t\u0131rmanma, sonu\u00e7suz \u00e7\u0131kmaz ve m\u00fczakereler” \u015feklindeki Vietnam hikayesini tekrarlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ard\u0131ndan Nixon-Kissinger y\u00f6netiminin “kabaday\u0131 tehditler, ard\u0131ndan tatmin edici olmayan, uydurma bir anla\u015fma yoluyla kurtulma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n kademeli olarak fark\u0131na var\u0131lmas\u0131” yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na ge\u00e7ti\u011fini belirtiyor.
\nTrump’\u0131n \u00fclkeleri havaya u\u00e7urma y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tekrarlanan tehditleri, eski Beyaz Saray Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131 H.R. Haldeman’\u0131n an\u0131lar\u0131nda anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Richard Nixon’\u0131n delili\u011fine \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc bir benzerlik ta\u015f\u0131yor.
\nHaldeman, Nixon’\u0131n Kuzey Vietnaml\u0131lar\u0131 me\u015fru bar\u0131\u015f m\u00fczakerelerine zorlayabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlad\u0131. Tehdit anahtard\u0131 ve Nixon teorisi i\u00e7in bir ifade uydurdu\u2026 \u015e\u00f6yle dedi: “‘Deli Adam Teorisi’ diyorum buna, Bob. Kuzey Vietnaml\u0131lar\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 durdurmak i\u00e7in her \u015feyi yapabilece\u011fim noktaya geldi\u011fime inanmalar\u0131n\u0131 istiyorum. Onlara ‘Tanr\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131na, Nixon’\u0131n kom\u00fcnizm tak\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu biliyorsunuz. K\u0131zd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda onu zapt edemeyiz \u2013 ve n\u00fckleer d\u00fc\u011fme elinde’ diye f\u0131s\u0131ldayaca\u011f\u0131z \u2013 ve Ho Chi Minh’in kendisi iki g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde Paris’te bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in yalvaracak.”
\nTrump ayr\u0131ca Kissinger’\u0131n, \u0130ran ve Vietnam gibi \u00fclkelerin s\u00fcresiz olarak direnemeyece\u011fi konusundaki g\u00fcvenini payla\u015f\u0131yor. Kissinger, 1969’da ekibine “Kuzey Vietnam gibi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131f bir g\u00fcc\u00fcn bir k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na inanam\u0131yorum” demi\u015fti. “Tamamen cezaland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir darbe” istedi ve ekibi, \u00c7in’den gelen ana ikmal yolunu kapatmak i\u00e7in n\u00fckleer silah kullan\u0131m\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere bir dizi sald\u0131r\u0131 senaryosu sundu.
\nVietnam i\u00e7in, \u0130ran’a bak\u0131n. Rejim, liderli\u011finin suikast dalgas\u0131n\u0131n kaosundan, dini liderinin kayb\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere kurtuldu\u011funda, bir k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hissetti. Ger\u00e7ekten de direni\u015f, \u0130ran ulusal k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn bir par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130ran liderli\u011fine ayr\u0131ca Trump’\u0131n Venezuela modelini uygulayarak, i\u00e7 sava\u015fla sonu\u00e7lanabilecek daha geni\u015f, daha karma\u015f\u0131k bir genel ayaklanmay\u0131 te\u015fvik etmek yerine, \u00fclke i\u00e7inde devralacak birini bulma tak\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 da yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. \u0130lk ba\u015fta kula\u011fa mant\u0131ks\u0131z gelse de, \u0130srail’in ger\u00e7ekten de eski ate\u015fli ba\u015fkan Mahmud Ahmedinejad’\u0131n iktidar\u0131 devralmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, onu s\u00fcrg\u00fcndeki \u015fah\u0131n o\u011flu R\u0131za Pehlevi’ye tercih etti\u011fi art\u0131k muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.
\nTrump, rejimin birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini ve sava\u015f\u0131n kendili\u011finden a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordu. Bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyince, 2 Nisan’a kadar sava\u015fla ilgili bir televizyon konu\u015fmas\u0131 yapmadan, bir dizi gerek\u00e7eyi g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irdi. O zamana kadar, izleyicilerinin \u00e7o\u011fu, benzin fiyatlar\u0131na bakarak, kaybedilmi\u015fti.
\nJohnson en az\u0131ndan ABD askerlerinin neden yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6nderildi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klama ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zenle hissetmi\u015f ve \u00fclkeyi bu dava etraf\u0131nda birle\u015ftirmeyi g\u00f6revi olarak g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Hatta \u00fclkenin yaralar\u0131n\u0131 sarmas\u0131na engel oldu\u011funu hissetti\u011finde ba\u015fkanl\u0131ktan feragat etmi\u015fti.
\nTrump’\u0131n \u0130ran’\u0131n asla n\u00fckleer silaha sahip olmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki yedek mesaj\u0131n\u0131n birka\u00e7 dezavantaj\u0131 vard\u0131. \u0130ran, Trump’\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde \u00e7ekildi\u011fi 2015’te imzalanan anla\u015fmada buna raz\u0131 olmu\u015ftu. Dahas\u0131, Trump, Haziran 2025’teki k\u0131sa sava\u015fta d\u00fczenlenen sald\u0131r\u0131larda \u0130ran’\u0131n bu t\u00fcr silahlar\u0131 yapma yetene\u011fini tamamen yok etti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. 2015 anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n eski AB m\u00fczakerecisi Federica Mogherini de dahil olmak \u00fczere bir dizi uzman, Trump’\u0131n \u0130ran’\u0131n bombaya sahip olmaya yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu iddias\u0131n\u0131 sert\u00e7e ele\u015ftirdi. “Tahran’\u0131n yak\u0131n bir n\u00fckleer tehdit olu\u015fturdu\u011funa veya diplomasinin etkisiz oldu\u011funa dair hi\u00e7bir kan\u0131t yoktu.”
\nSonu\u00e7 olarak, sava\u015f\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnden itibaren yasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve pervas\u0131z oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. \u015e\u00f6yle dedi: “Analistler, \u0130ran’la sava\u015fa girmenin \u00fclkenin en muhafazakar sertlik yanl\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirece\u011fini, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 b\u00f6lgeye yayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 cezaland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 seviyelere \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmi\u015fti.” Analistler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.
\nGiderek daha da sinirlenen Beyaz Saray brifingcileri, Benjamin Netanyahu’nun Trump’\u0131 \u0130ran’a sald\u0131rmaya ikna etmede oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 role d\u00f6nd\u00fcler. \u0130srail ba\u015fbakan\u0131, yak\u0131n zamanda 60 Minutes’a verdi\u011fi r\u00f6portajda, Trump’\u0131 sava\u015fa zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemenin yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu savundu. Hem o hem de Trump riskleri birlikte tartt\u0131lar, ancak “H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 sorununun sava\u015f ilerledik\u00e7e anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131” itiraf etti.
\nBu \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bir itiraft\u0131. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Birol, yak\u0131n zamanda IEA’daki i\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde adaylara IEA’da neden i\u015f ba\u015fvurusunda bulunduklar\u0131n\u0131 sorduktan sonra ikinci sorunun “H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kapan\u0131rsa ne yapars\u0131n\u0131z?” oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu yayg\u0131n bir k\u0131yamet senaryosuydu, ancak ABD bir yan\u0131t do\u011fa\u00e7lamak zorunda kald\u0131.
\nPentagon’da da \u00e7ok az ki\u015fi, \u0130ran’\u0131n “\u00fc\u00e7gen zorlama”ya \u2013 K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin petrol ve gaz tesislerine ve a\u00e7\u0131kta kalan ABD \u00fcslerine sald\u0131r\u0131ya \u2013 ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u015fvuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rebildi.
\nUluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler literat\u00fcr\u00fc, bunun nispeten az \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir fenomen oldu\u011funu iddia ediyor; buna g\u00f6re “diren\u00e7li bir hedef \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan kald\u0131ra\u00e7 g\u00fcc\u00fc olmayan bir zorlay\u0131c\u0131, hedef \u00fczerinde kald\u0131ra\u00e7 g\u00fcc\u00fc olan ve hedefin savunmas\u0131z oldu\u011fu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir taraf\u0131 zorlar ve onu hedefle \u00e7\u0131kar \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na manip\u00fcle eder”.
\nK\u0131sacas\u0131, sava\u015f ABD’nin kendisini etkilemeyebilir, ancak etkileyebilecek olanlara ula\u015fabilir. Ge\u00e7en hafta sonu Trump’\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya geri d\u00f6nmesini engelleyen Suudi Arabistan, T\u00fcrkiye, Katar, M\u0131s\u0131r ve Pakistan ittifak\u0131yd\u0131. Art\u0131k Ortado\u011fu’da dizginleri ellerinde tutabilirler ve ABD’den ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak \u0130ran ile kurabilecekleri ili\u015fki \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r.
\n#Trump\u0130ranSava\u015f\u0131
\n#K\u00fcreselD\u00f6n\u00fcmNoktas\u0131
\n#ABDDiplomasisi
\n#Ortado\u011fuJeopoliti\u011fi
\n#VietnamSava\u015f\u0131
\n#\u0130ranN\u00fckleerProgram\u0131
\n#H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131
\n#DronSava\u015flar\u0131
\n#Uluslararas\u0131\u0130li\u015fkiler
\n#ABD\u0130srail\u0130li\u015fkileri<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Lyndon B. Johnson, 1965’te Vietnam Sava\u015f\u0131’n\u0131 hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karan bir konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, amac\u0131n “her \u00fclkenin kendi kaderini \u015fekillendirebilmesini” sa\u011flamak oldu\u011funu, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ancak b\u00f6yle bir d\u00fcnyada ABD’nin kendi \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na alabilece\u011fini savunmu\u015ftu. Ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda, “insan\u0131n zay\u0131fl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6yleydi ki, g\u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ak\u0131ldan \u00f6nce gelmeli ve sava\u015f\u0131n israf\u0131, bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n eserleri olmal\u0131yd\u0131” diye itiraf etmi\u015fti. Bu, ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k ABD […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29978,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29977","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29977"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29977\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/29978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29977"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29977"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29977"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}