According to Axios, one of Washington’s most reliable news outlets, U.S. and Iranian negotiators have reached a preliminary agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would extend the ceasefire and open talks on Iran\u2019s nuclear program. All that\u2019s missing now is Trump\u2019s final approval\u2014the president has asked the mediators for \u201ca few days to think it over.\u201d<\/p>\n
What does the contract include?
\nThe details revealed by Axios are very specific. The Strait of Hormuz is to be fully opened\u2014with no tolls and no harassment of ships\u2014and Iran commits to clearing mines from the strait within 30 days of signing. At the same time, the U.S. naval blockade would be lifted in proportion to the restoration of commercial shipping. Iran would formally commit to not pursuing nuclear weapons, and during a 60-day negotiation window, discussions would take place on how to dispose of highly enriched uranium and how to limit further enrichment. For its part, the U.S. promises talks on lifting sanctions, unfreezing Iranian funds, and establishing a mechanism for delivering goods and humanitarian aid to Iran.<\/p>\n
Why do markets react immediately?
\nThe market reaction reflected in today\u2019s quotes is a textbook example of an \u201canticipation trade.\u201d Crude oil (OIL -0.25%, OIL.WTI -0.48%) is falling because the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz signals the return of Iranian oil to the market and an increase in global supply. The dollar is losing ground (USDIDX -0.16%, USDPLN -0.29%) because the easing of geopolitical tensions is driving capital away from safe-haven assets, which automatically boosts EURUSD (+0.21%) and GBPUSD (+0.10%). Gold is gaining slightly (+0.11%) on the back of the dollar\u2019s weakness.<\/p>\n
Why not celebrate already?
\nTrump and his advisors have believed on several occasions that they were close to a deal\u2014none of which have materialized so far. Crucially, Iran has not officially confirmed that it has the \u201cnecessary approvals\u201d on its end\u2014this claim comes solely from anonymous U.S. officials. Axios is an agency with a very good track record in Washington, and its reports are taken seriously by the markets; however, until Trump officially signs the deal, the entire scenario remains in the realm of unconfirmed reports. Markets are betting today on the mere possibility of a breakthrough\u2014if the deal falls through, the correction could be just as sharp as the current rally.<\/p>\n
At the moment, the US100 has erased all of its losses from the day and is currently trading higher on an intraday basis. Source: xStation<\/p>\n
#USIranDeal #NuclearTalks #TrumpApproval #AxiosReport #StraitOfHormuz #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #IranSanctions #Ceasefire #Diplomacy<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
According to Axios, one of Washington’s most reliable news outlets, U.S. and Iranian negotiators have reached a preliminary agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would extend the ceasefire and open talks on Iran\u2019s nuclear program. All that\u2019s missing now is Trump\u2019s final approval\u2014the president has asked the mediators for \u201ca few days […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29412,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29411","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29411"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29411\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/29412"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}