Bir ate\u015fkes “iplik \u00fczerinde sallan\u0131yor”. Bir diplomatik s\u00fcre\u00e7 “ilerleme kaydediyor”. Bir ba\u015fkan “memnun de\u011fil”. Ve K\u00f6rfez \u00e7evresinde yank\u0131lanan patlamalar.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki mevcut, kafa kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ili\u015fkiler durumu hakk\u0131nda ne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeli \u2013 bar\u0131\u015fa m\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz yoksa sava\u015fa m\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyoruz?<\/p>\n
Beyaz Saray’dan gelen son a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re, her iki taraf\u0131n m\u00fczakerecileri, daha fazla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeye yer a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir ate\u015fkes uzatmas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesi \u00fczerinde anla\u015ft\u0131lar \u2013 ancak bunun hala ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n onay\u0131na ihtiyac\u0131 var. Bu, \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan do\u011frulanmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, 8 Nisan’da y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe giren ve \u015fimdiye kadar kendisinden \u00f6nceki aktif \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma a\u015famas\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha uzun s\u00fcren ate\u015fkese meydan okuyan bir haftan\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru geliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131’n\u0131n (Centcom) g\u00fcney \u0130ran’\u0131n Bender Abbas liman kentindeki bir “yer kontrol sahas\u0131” olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na, “sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n cevaps\u0131z kalmayaca\u011f\u0131” uyar\u0131s\u0131yla yan\u0131t verdi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC) daha sonra bir Amerikan hava \u00fcss\u00fcne sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Hangi \u00fcs oldu\u011funu belirtmedi, ancak Centcom daha sonra ABD’nin birka\u00e7 \u00fcss\u00fc bulunan Kuveyt \u00fczerinde bir balistik f\u00fczenin engellendi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Tahran’\u0131n dilini yank\u0131layan Centcom, sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 “vahim bir ate\u015fkes ihlali” olarak nitelendirdi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm bunlar u\u011fursuz geliyor, ancak bu, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ilk be\u015f bu\u00e7uk haftas\u0131n\u0131 karakterize eden \u015fiddetli kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 at\u0131\u015fmalardan hala \u00e7ok uzak. O d\u00f6nemde ABD ve \u0130srail, \u0130ran genelindeki hedeflere binlerce sorti d\u00fczenlerken, Tahran da ABD \u00fcslerine, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerine ve \u0130srail’e insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131 ve balistik f\u00fczelerle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi.<\/p>\n
ABD Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc, “H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde tehdit olu\u015fturan” be\u015f \u0130ran insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi; bu da ticari veya askeri deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir kez daha endi\u015fe oda\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyordu.<\/p>\n
Ancak her iki taraf da bu hafta g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 misillemeleri topyek\u00fbn bir sava\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olarak g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm bunlar olurken, \u00e7ok say\u0131da akt\u00f6r\u00fcn dahil oldu\u011fu \u00e7etrefilli bir diplomatik s\u00fcre\u00e7 arka planda devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u00fcrece zaman zaman g\u00f6z at\u0131yoruz, ancak bunlar k\u0131smi ve ge\u00e7ici.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131, 14 maddelik bir mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n gayri resmi tasla\u011f\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131klar\u0131 unsurlar\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Raporda Tahran’\u0131n g\u00f6rmek istedi\u011fi her \u015fey vard\u0131: Washington’\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin “\u0130ran yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndan” \u00e7ekilmesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden \u0130ran ve Umman’\u0131n gemi y\u00f6netimi ve rotalamas\u0131n\u0131 kontrol etmesiyle askeri olmayan trafi\u011fin yeniden sa\u011flanmas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Raporda \u00f6zellikle \u0130ran’\u0131n tavizlerinden, \u00f6zellikle de \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli n\u00fckleer meselesinden hi\u00e7 bahsedilmiyordu.<\/p>\n
Beyaz Saray, s\u00f6z konusu tasla\u011f\u0131 “tamamen uydurma” olarak nitelendiren k\u0131sa bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Daha sonra, Beyaz Saray’daki son televizyonlu kabine toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Trump, bir anla\u015fma \u00f6nerilerinden hen\u00fcz memnun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u0130ran’\u0131n “bize vermeleri gereken \u015feyleri vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131” s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131 vermedi ve Tahran’\u0131n uymamas\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015fa geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yineledi.<\/p>\n
“E\u011fer yapmazlarsa, solumdaki adam onlar\u0131 bitirecek,” dedi, ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 Pete Hegseth’e d\u00f6nerek.<\/p>\n
Sab\u0131rs\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n karakteristik belirtileri de vard\u0131. \u0130ran ve Umman’\u0131n bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en gemilerin hareketini kontrol etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki raporlar soruldu\u011funda, Trump geleneksel bir ABD m\u00fcttefikine sert bir uyar\u0131da bulundu.<\/p>\n
“Umman herkes gibi davranacak, yoksa onlar\u0131 havaya u\u00e7urmak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131z,” dedi.<\/p>\n
Bu arada, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, Tahran taraf\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki trafi\u011fi denetlemek \u00fczere kurulan yeni “Basra K\u00f6rfezi Bo\u011faz\u0131 Otoritesi”ne yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hazine’nin Yabanc\u0131 Varl\u0131klar Kontrol Ofisi (OFAC), bu plan\u0131 “\u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu’nun devlet destekli ter\u00f6r kampanyas\u0131n\u0131 paraya \u00e7evirme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde yeni bir giri\u015fimi” olarak nitelendirdi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, \u0130ran, Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri (BAE) ve Umman aras\u0131nda yer alan dar bir su ge\u00e7ididir.<\/p>\n
En dar noktas\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 mil (33 km) olan su yolu, K\u00f6rfez’i Umman K\u00f6rfezi’ne ba\u011flayarak hayati bir k\u00fcresel denizcilik rotas\u0131 haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn ve s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20’si genellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndan ge\u00e7mektedir.<\/p>\n
Bu petrol sadece \u0130ran’dan de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda Irak, Kuveyt, Katar, Suudi Arabistan ve BAE gibi K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinden de gelmektedir.<\/p>\n
ABD Enerji Bilgi \u0130daresi (EIA) tahminlerine g\u00f6re, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol su yolundan ge\u00e7ti \u2013 bu da y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k 600 milyar dolar (447 milyar sterlin) de\u011ferinde enerji ticaretine denk geliyor.<\/p>\n
Sava\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri deniz trafi\u011fi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Her zaman oldu\u011fu gibi Trump, sava\u015f\u0131n plana g\u00f6re gitti\u011fi izlenimini vermek i\u00e7in elinden geleni yap\u0131yor, petrol piyasas\u0131nda daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015fi veya Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki ara se\u00e7imlerde siyasi tepkileri \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 bir anla\u015fma yapmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki her t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00f6neriyi bir kenara itiyordu.<\/p>\n
Ancak bir \u00e7\u0131kmazda oldu\u011fu inkar edilemez.<\/p>\n
Tatmin edici bir anla\u015fma hala ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 zor bir hedef olmaya devam ediyor ve kendi partisinden baz\u0131lar\u0131 \u2013 \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Benjamin Netanyahu’dan bahsetmiyorum bile \u2013 i\u015fi bitirmek i\u00e7in sava\u015fa geri d\u00f6nmesini istiyor.<\/p>\n
Benzer bask\u0131lar Tahran’da da mevcut; \u00fclkenin en \u015fahin seslerinden baz\u0131lar\u0131 maksimalist hedeflerde \u0131srar ediyor ve \u0130ran’\u0131n boyunduruk alt\u0131na al\u0131namayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini savunuyor.<\/p>\n
Pakistan’\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti\u011fi diplomatik \u00e7aba son derece karma\u015f\u0131k.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki taraf\u0131 b\u00f6len konular derin: \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n gelecekteki y\u00f6netimi, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve varl\u0131klar\u0131n dondurulmas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Acil hedef \u2013 sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirecek ve ard\u0131ndan gelecek karma\u015f\u0131k diplomatik m\u00fczakereler i\u00e7in bir yol haritas\u0131 belirleyecek bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 \u2013 \u015fimdiye kadar elde edilemedi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio, ilerlemenin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki saatlerin veya g\u00fcnlerin g\u00f6sterece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Her iki taraftaki i\u00e7 bask\u0131lara ve K\u00f6rfez’deki ve \u00e7evresindeki gergin atmosfere ra\u011fmen, ne \u0130ran ne de ABD sava\u015fa geri d\u00f6nmekle ilgileniyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen, yedi haftadan uzun s\u00fcredir devam eden ate\u015fkes hala y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte.<\/p>\n
#ABD\u0130ranGerilimi #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #Ate\u015fkes #Diplomasi #Ortado\u011fu #N\u00fckleerProgram #DonaldTrump #\u0130ranDevrimMuhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 #PetrolTicaret #K\u00fcreselG\u00fcvenlik<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bir ate\u015fkes “iplik \u00fczerinde sallan\u0131yor”. Bir diplomatik s\u00fcre\u00e7 “ilerleme kaydediyor”. Bir ba\u015fkan “memnun de\u011fil”. Ve K\u00f6rfez \u00e7evresinde yank\u0131lanan patlamalar. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki mevcut, kafa kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ili\u015fkiler durumu hakk\u0131nda ne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeli \u2013 bar\u0131\u015fa m\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz yoksa sava\u015fa m\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyoruz? Beyaz Saray’dan gelen son a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re, her iki taraf\u0131n m\u00fczakerecileri, daha fazla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeye yer a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29076,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29075"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29075\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/29076"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}