B\u00f6lgedeki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla birlikte, \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir askeri m\u00fcdahalenin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda \u00f6nemli de\u011ferlendirmeler yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Alman Uluslararas\u0131 ve G\u00fcvenlik \u0130\u015fleri Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’nden \u0130ran g\u00fcvenlik konular\u0131 uzman\u0131 Hamidreza Azizi<\/strong>, New York Times’a yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, d\u00fc\u015fmanca eylemlerin yeniden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde \u0130ran’\u0131n “d\u00fc\u015fmanla etkili bir \u015fekilde y\u00fczle\u015fmek ve kar\u015f\u0131 taraf\u0131n hesaplar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek” amac\u0131yla g\u00fcnde onlarca, hatta y\u00fczlerce f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n Bu uyar\u0131lar, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump<\/strong>‘\u0131n \u0130ran ile n\u00fckleer silah elde etmesini engelleyecek bir anla\u015fmaya varma \u015fans\u0131n\u0131n “\u00e7ok iyi” oldu\u011funu belirtmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Ancak Trump, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir Truth Social payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri liderlerinin kendisinden \u0130ran’a sald\u0131rmaktan vazge\u00e7mesini talep etti\u011fini de dile getirmi\u015fti. Bu durum, ABD’nin b\u00f6lgedeki m\u00fcttefiklerinin dahi olas\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan endi\u015fe duydu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n Trump’\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenlemeyi planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmesi, \u0130ran’\u0131n kararl\u0131 duru\u015funun ve b\u00f6lgesel dinamiklerin ABD’nin planlar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Azizi, gelecekteki bir \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, \u015eubat 2026’da ba\u015flayan son sava\u015ftan farkl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Uzman, \u0130ran’\u0131n o d\u00f6nemde uzun s\u00fcreli bir sava\u015fa haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve f\u00fcze kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 haftalarca dayanabilmek i\u00e7in rasyonel bir \u015fekilde y\u00f6netti\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n Azizi’ye g\u00f6re, e\u011fer \u015fimdi bir sava\u015f patlak verirse, \u0130ran liderleri “k\u0131sa ama y\u00fcksek yo\u011funluklu” bir sava\u015f hedefleyecekler. Bu strateji, \u0130ran’\u0131n enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 koordineli a\u011f\u0131r sald\u0131r\u0131lardan korurken, ayn\u0131 zamanda d\u00fc\u015fmana h\u0131zl\u0131 ve etkili bir \u015fekilde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verme kapasitesini ortaya koyuyor. \u0130ran’\u0131n bu senaryoda K\u00f6rfez petrol sahalar\u0131n\u0131, rafinerilerini ve limanlar\u0131n\u0131 hedef alarak k\u00fcresel ekonomiye zarar verme ve ABD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturma yoluna gidebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Bu durum, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerini de ka\u00e7\u0131nmak istedikleri bir sava\u015f\u0131n i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekerek zor bir duruma sokabilir.<\/p>\n \u0130ran’\u0131n stratejik derinli\u011fi sadece karasal hedeflerle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil. Azizi, \u0130ran’\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, Bab el-Mandeb Bo\u011faz\u0131<\/strong>‘n\u0131 da kullanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilece\u011fini ifade etti. Bu durumun “Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri’ni tek yerine iki deniz cephesine odaklanmaya zorlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131” kaydetti. K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz’i Aden K\u00f6rfezi ve Hint Okyanusu’na ba\u011flayan Bab el-Mandeb Bo\u011faz\u0131, zaten \u00f6nemli bir hassasiyet noktas\u0131 olarak kabul ediliyor. \u0130slam rejiminin \u00f6zerk ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc m\u00fcttefiki Husiler<\/strong>, Yemen topraklar\u0131ndan Hamas’a destek amac\u0131yla bir dizi sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenlemi\u015fti. Yemen uzman\u0131 Inbal Nissim-Louvton<\/strong> daha \u00f6nce yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, Husilerin bo\u011faz\u0131 kapatma veya bozma korkusunun, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermeden absorbe etmelerine yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015fti. Bu, \u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel m\u00fcttefikleri arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla stratejik bask\u0131 uygulama yetene\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n Trump, Truth Social’daki Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda, “Bir \u015feyler \u00fczerinde anla\u015fma sa\u011flama \u015fans\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok iyi oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. E\u011fer bunu onlar\u0131 bombalamadan yapabilirsek \u00e7ok mutlu olurum” ifadelerini kulland\u0131. Olas\u0131 anla\u015fmaya ili\u015fkin olarak, “Bu \u00e7ok olumlu bir geli\u015fme, ancak neye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini g\u00f6rece\u011fiz” diye ekledi. Trump, daha \u00f6nce de ABD yetkililerinin bir anla\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc zamanlar oldu\u011funu, ancak bu seferin “biraz farkl\u0131” oldu\u011funu yineledi.<\/p>\n Payla\u015f\u0131mda ad\u0131 ge\u00e7en liderler aras\u0131nda Katar Emiri Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani<\/strong>, Suudi Arabistan Veliaht Prensi Muhammed bin Salman Al Saud<\/strong> ve BAE Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015eeyh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan<\/strong> bulunuyordu. Trump, “Yukar\u0131da ad\u0131 ge\u00e7en liderlere duydu\u011fum sayg\u0131ya dayanarak, Sava\u015f Bakan\u0131 Pete Hegseth<\/strong>, Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131 General Daniel Caine<\/strong> ve Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri Ordusu’na, yar\u0131nki planlanan \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 YAPMAYACA\u011eIMIZ talimat\u0131n\u0131 verdim” dedi.<\/p>\n Trump, “Ciddi m\u00fczakereler \u015fu anda devam ediyor ve onlar\u0131n (b\u00fcy\u00fck liderler ve m\u00fcttefikler olarak) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne g\u00f6re, Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ile birlikte Orta Do\u011fu’daki ve \u00f6tesindeki t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in \u00e7ok kabul edilebilir bir Anla\u015fma yap\u0131lacak” diye yazd\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca, “Bu Anla\u015fma, en \u00f6nemlisi, \u0130RAN \u0130\u00c7\u0130N N\u00dcKLEER S\u0130LAH YOK!” ifadesini ekledi. Bu, \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l ama\u00e7l\u0131 oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kararl\u0131 duru\u015funun bir teyidi olarak yorumlanabilir.<\/p>\n Ancak Trump, “kabul edilebilir bir Anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lamamas\u0131 durumunda, \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 tam, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya an\u0131nda ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r olmalar\u0131 talimat\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fini” de ekledi. Bu tehditkar dil, \u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 arenadaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc konumuna ra\u011fmen ABD’nin bask\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7medi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n James Genn, Shoshana Baker ve Danielle Greyman-Kennard bu rapora katk\u0131da bulunmu\u015ftur.<\/em><\/p>\n #\u0130ran #F\u00fczeKalkan\u0131 #B\u00f6lgeselG\u00fcvenlik #ABD\u0130ranGerilimi #K\u00f6rfez\u00dclkeleri #BabElMandeb #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #N\u00fckleerAnla\u015fma #Trump #\u0130ranStratejisi<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u0130ran Uzman\u0131ndan Net Uyar\u0131: Sald\u0131r\u0131 Durumunda Her G\u00fcn Y\u00fczlerce F\u00fcze Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Bulur B\u00f6lgedeki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla birlikte, \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir askeri m\u00fcdahalenin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda \u00f6nemli de\u011ferlendirmeler yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Alman Uluslararas\u0131 ve G\u00fcvenlik \u0130\u015fleri Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’nden \u0130ran g\u00fcvenlik konular\u0131 uzman\u0131 Hamidreza Azizi, New York Times’a yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, d\u00fc\u015fmanca eylemlerin yeniden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde \u0130ran’\u0131n “d\u00fc\u015fmanla etkili bir \u015fekilde […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26291,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26290","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26290","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26290"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26290\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/26291"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26290"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26290"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}ABD’nin \u00c7eli\u015fkili Tutumu ve B\u00f6lgesel Bask\u0131lar<\/span><\/h2>\n
“K\u0131sa Ama Y\u00fcksek Yo\u011funluklu” Bir Sava\u015f Stratejisi<\/span><\/h2>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz’\u00fcn \u00d6tesinde: Bab el-Mandeb Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n Stratejik \u00d6nemi<\/span><\/h2>\n
Trump’\u0131n Son Payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda \u0130ran \u0130li\u015fkileri<\/span><\/h2>\n