Goldman Sachs ba\u015f ekonomisti Jan Hatzius’a g\u00f6re, \u0130ran’daki sava\u015f d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ay\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken k\u00fcresel ekonomi “e\u011filiyor ama k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131yor”, ancak b\u00fcy\u00fcme riskleri tamamen ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Hatzius Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc m\u00fc\u015fterilerine g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi notta, “Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131yla yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerdeki en s\u0131k konular\u0131 yazsak, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu olumsuz olurdu” diye yazd\u0131. “\u00dcstelik hisse senetleri ucuz olmaktan \u00e7ok uzak. Peki neden bu kadar iyi performans g\u00f6sterdiler?”<\/p>\n
Hatzius, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n aylarca kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla piyasalar\u0131 neden hen\u00fcz raydan \u00e7\u0131karmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair \u00fc\u00e7 neden s\u0131ralad\u0131:<\/p>\n
Petrol, sava\u015fa girerken k\u00fcresel piyasan\u0131n al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k derecede y\u00fcksek envanterlerle desteklenmesi nedeniyle beklendi\u011fi kadar y\u00fckselmedi.<\/p>\n
Jet yak\u0131t\u0131 gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerdeki b\u00f6lgesel k\u0131tl\u0131klar, daha az de\u011ferli ve daha az kritik u\u00e7u\u015f rotalar\u0131nda azalt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f seferler gibi “nispeten ac\u0131s\u0131z” talep daralmalar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yapay zeka patlamas\u0131 ve destekleyici maliye politikas\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n daha yava\u015f ba\u015flamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen borsan\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
Ancak bu, piyasan\u0131n hi\u00e7bir riskle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmiyor, dedi Hatzius.<\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs’\u0131n 12 ayl\u0131k resesyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc hala sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin %5 \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor ve bankan\u0131n ekonomistleri, vergi iadesi nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fckenmesi, benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmeye devam etmesi ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131nda bir yava\u015flama \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda, Goldman Sachs ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re, ABD’de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7inde resesyon olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %30’dan %25’e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekteki man\u015fet GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, \u00f6zel yurt i\u00e7i sat\u0131\u015flar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve Nisan ay\u0131nda 115.000 yeni i\u015f yarat\u0131ld\u0131 ve ilk i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kazan\u00e7 sezonu da S&P 500 (^GSPC) ve Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) endekslerini art arda t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu; yapay zeka verimlilik patlamas\u0131n\u0131n getirdi\u011fi uzun vadeli kar beklentileri yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 iyimser tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Hatzius, yapay zeka patlamas\u0131n\u0131n \u015firketleri neredeyse kesinlikle daha verimli hale getirece\u011fini ancak verimlilikteki her art\u0131\u015f\u0131n “belirli bir GSY\u0130H art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in daha az yeni i\u015f anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini” s\u00f6yledi. Yapay zekan\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek elektronik fiyatlar\u0131 ve geni\u015fletilmi\u015f yaz\u0131l\u0131m \u00f6zellikleri gibi baz\u0131 ikincil etkileri, zaten yap\u0131\u015fkan olan enflasyon \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
Hatzius, bunun sonucunda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in “temel durumun olumlu ancak risklerin asimetrik olarak olumsuz oldu\u011fu”, daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve geni\u015fleyen ekonomik hasar gibi daha olumsuz sonu\u00e7lara do\u011fru e\u011filim g\u00f6steren karma\u015f\u0131k bir tablo ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
#K\u00fcreselEkonomi #GoldmanSachs #\u0130ranSava\u015f\u0131 #YapayZeka #Enflasyon #PetrolFiyatlar\u0131 #ResesyonRiski #PiyasaAnalizi #EkonomikG\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Goldman Sachs ba\u015f ekonomisti Jan Hatzius’a g\u00f6re, \u0130ran’daki sava\u015f d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ay\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken k\u00fcresel ekonomi “e\u011filiyor ama k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131yor”, ancak b\u00fcy\u00fcme riskleri tamamen ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Hatzius Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc m\u00fc\u015fterilerine g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi notta, “Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131yla yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerdeki en s\u0131k konular\u0131 yazsak, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu olumsuz olurdu” diye yazd\u0131. “\u00dcstelik hisse senetleri ucuz olmaktan \u00e7ok uzak. Peki neden bu kadar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24533,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24532","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24532","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24532"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24532\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/24533"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24532"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24532"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24532"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}