ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran’\u0131n Ortado\u011fu’daki sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirme \u00f6nerisine verdi\u011fi son yan\u0131t\u0131 reddetti ve stratejik \u00f6neme sahip H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131na neden oldu. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Liman\u0131’n\u0131n devam eden ablukas\u0131, ham petrol, do\u011fal gaz ve yak\u0131t i\u00e7in kritik bir k\u00fcresel tedarik yolunu etkili bir \u015fekilde kesintiye u\u011fratarak enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti ve enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Zhitong Finance’a g\u00f6re, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n \u0130ran’\u0131n son uzun vadeli bar\u0131\u015f \u00f6nerisini reddetmesinin ard\u0131ndan, uluslararas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi olan Brent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri ve Kuzey Amerika petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi olan WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckseldi. ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri Asya piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Son jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, ABD ve \u0130ran’\u0131n k\u00fcresel enerji sistemi i\u00e7in kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki fiili \u00e7ifte ablukas\u0131n\u0131 \u015f\u00fcphesiz uzatarak uluslararas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 daha da y\u00fckseltebilir. Ayr\u0131ca, momentum ticaret g\u00f6stergeleri, tarihsel olarak k\u0131sa vadeli keskin sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u015faret eden a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 seviyelere ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu durum, yapay zeka yat\u0131r\u0131m co\u015fkusunun k\u00f6r\u00fckledi\u011fi son k\u00fcresel borsa rallisini bir d\u00fczeltme y\u00f6r\u00fcngesine do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n
Brent Son G\u00fcn Finansal Vadeli \u0130\u015flemleri (JUL6) (BZmain.US) fiyatlar\u0131 agresif bir \u015fekilde %3,5 artarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolarl\u0131k kilit y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u015fi\u011fine ula\u015f\u0131rken, Ham Petrol Vadeli \u0130\u015flemleri (JUN6) (CLmain.US) bir ara 100 dolar seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. Haberlere g\u00f6re, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump, yeni yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir sosyal medya g\u00f6nderisinde, \u0130ran’\u0131n Ortado\u011fu’daki sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmeyi ama\u00e7layan uzun vadeli bar\u0131\u015f \u00f6nerisine verdi\u011fi yan\u0131t\u0131n ‘tamamen kabul edilemez’ oldu\u011funu belirtti. Bu arada, bir dizi t\u0131rmanan d\u00fc\u015fmanca eylemin ard\u0131ndan, her iki taraf da k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte zorlan\u0131yor ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’nda ‘bo\u011faz\u0131n askeri kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc sa\u011flarken do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalardan m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca ka\u00e7\u0131nma’ yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 z\u0131mnen benimsiyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eubat sonunda \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n patlak vermesinden bu yana, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 etkili bir \u015fekilde abluka alt\u0131nda tutularak, k\u00fcresel m\u00fc\u015fterilere ham petrol, do\u011fal gaz ve rafine yak\u0131t \u00fcr\u00fcnleri tedarik eden en kritik nakliye rotalar\u0131ndan biri kesildi. Bu kesinti, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rd\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar aras\u0131nda enflasyon endi\u015felerini \u015fiddetlendirdi. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki bu jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu arz kesintisinin insanl\u0131k tarihindeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015foku yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Citi, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki uzun vadeli bar\u0131\u015f m\u00fczakerelerinin zorlu kalmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcreli abluka ve kontrol alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 halinde, uluslararas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi olan Brent ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, son zamanlardaki 100 dolar civar\u0131ndaki belirgin geri \u00e7ekilmesinden daha da y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini, hatta yeni faz zirveleri belirleyebilece\u011fini belirten bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma raporu yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Citigroup stratejistleri, temel tahmin senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n hala H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki kesintilerin May\u0131s ay\u0131 sonuna kadar \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde hafifleyece\u011fini varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ancak, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir anla\u015fmaya varman\u0131n zorlu\u011funun, yak\u0131n vadede \u00f6nemli bir petrol fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydettiler. Wall Street devi, Brent ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 0-3 ay i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek fiyat tahminini varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolar olarak koruyor. Ayr\u0131ca, Brent ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn ikinci \u00e7eyrek ortalama fiyat\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolara, ard\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte 95 dolara ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte 80 dolara gerilemesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkes \u0130ll\u00fczyonundan Yeni Bir Arz \u015eoklar\u0131 Turuna! Trump’\u0131n ‘Tamamen Kabul Edilemez’ A\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 Petrol Piyasas\u0131n\u0131 Yeniden Ate\u015fledi<\/p>\n
28 \u015eubat’ta patlak veren jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, k\u00fcresel enerji tedarik piyasas\u0131n\u0131 ciddi \u015fekilde aksatt\u0131. K\u00fcresel petrol ve do\u011fal gaz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 ila %30’unu olu\u015fturan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan nakliye neredeyse tamamen durdu, bu da arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015fa neden oldu. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, uluslararas\u0131 ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi olan Brent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri, ilk \u00e7eyrekte %50’den fazla artarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti. Daha sonra, ara s\u0131ra bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri sinyalleri aras\u0131nda, fiyatlar bir ara varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131na geriledi. Ancak, son zamanlarda, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n her iki ordu taraf\u0131ndan hala son derece s\u0131k\u0131 kontrol ve abluka alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131 ve uzun vadeli bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n giderek azalmas\u0131yla, fiyatlar yeniden 100 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131daki grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, Trump’\u0131n \u0130ran’\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f \u00f6nerisini reddetmesinin ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 keskin bir \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi \u2013 ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131n yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 \u201ckabul edilemez\u201d olarak nitelendirdi.<\/p>\n
Hafta sonu, medya raporlar\u0131 \u0130ran’\u0131n y\u00fcksek oranda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyum stokunun bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir \u00fclkeye devretmeyi \u00f6nerdi\u011fini ancak en b\u00fcy\u00fck n\u00fckleer tesisini s\u00f6kmeyi reddetti\u011fini belirtti. Ancak k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra, \u0130ran’\u0131n yar\u0131 resmi haber ajans\u0131 Tasnim, s\u00f6z konusu medya raporlar\u0131n\u0131 yalanlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc, yo\u011fun bir drone sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, Katar yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki Basra K\u00f6rfezi’nde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kargo gemisini k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine ate\u015fe verdi. Bu, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda Nisan ba\u015f\u0131nda var\u0131lan ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan bu yana b\u00f6lgedeki en son \u00f6nemli nakliye sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131yd\u0131. Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri (BAE) ve Kuveyt de birka\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015fmanca drone sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 engellediklerini belirtti, ancak dronlar\u0131n hangi askeri g\u00fc\u00e7ten geldi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamad\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Saudi Aramco CEO’su Amin Nasser, Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 nakliyenin birka\u00e7 haftadan fazla s\u00fcrmesi halinde, petrol tedarik piyasas\u0131n\u0131n 2027’ye kadar normalle\u015fmeyebilece\u011fini belirtti. \u015eirket, arz kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 bat\u0131 k\u0131y\u0131 b\u00f6lgesindeki Yanbu Liman\u0131 \u00fczerinden yeniden y\u00f6nlendirmeyi ba\u015fard\u0131, ancak bu hacim, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan rutin ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011fa k\u0131yasla ihmal edilebilir d\u00fczeyde.<\/p>\n
Saudi Aramco CEO’su Amin Nasser, piyasan\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz nakliyesindeki kesintiler nedeniyle son iki ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 milyar varil petrol kaybetti\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131. Ge\u00e7i\u015f yeniden ba\u015flasa bile, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck envanterler, y\u0131llarca s\u00fcren yetersiz yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve lojisti\u011fi yeniden in\u015fa etme ihtiyac\u0131, petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmesini yava\u015flatacakt\u0131r. Aramco’nun uyar\u0131s\u0131, piyasay\u0131 esasen yeniden fiyatland\u0131r\u0131yor: ‘bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131’ ‘an\u0131nda arz\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131’ anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Abluka sadece k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre s\u00fcrse bile, piyasan\u0131n envanter bo\u015fluklar\u0131n\u0131, nakliye uyumsuzluklar\u0131n\u0131, sigorta maliyetlerini ve rafineri stoklamas\u0131n\u0131 ele almas\u0131 aylar s\u00fcrecektir; e\u011fer birka\u00e7 hafta daha uzarsa, arz-talep a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelecek y\u0131la kadar uzayabilir ve normalle\u015fmeyi 2027’ye kadar geciktirebilir.<\/p>\n
Citi’nin son ara\u015ft\u0131rma raporunda belirtildi\u011fi gibi, Wall Street stratejistleri, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden nakliyenin bu y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na kadar bozuk kalaca\u011f\u0131na giderek daha fazla inan\u0131yor. Goldman Sachs taraf\u0131ndan anket yap\u0131lan kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu, bu dar su yolundan ge\u00e7en nakliye hacimlerinin Haziran sonundan sonra da kesintiye u\u011framaya devam etmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
F\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 riski alt\u0131nda az say\u0131da sevkiyat H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndan ba\u015far\u0131yla ge\u00e7se de \u2013 \u00f6rne\u011fin BAE ve Suudi Arabistan’\u0131n birka\u00e7 tankeri sessizce \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 gibi \u2013 toplam ak\u0131\u015f sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin sadece k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Katar da b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz (LNG) rezervleri ta\u015f\u0131yan birka\u00e7 gemiyi g\u00f6ndermeyi ba\u015fard\u0131; bu, jeopolitik gerilimlerin \u015eubat sonunda ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana bo\u011fazdan yap\u0131lan ilk LNG sevkiyatlar\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu, Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc CBS’in ’60 Dakika’ program\u0131na verdi\u011fi r\u00f6portajda, sava\u015f\u0131n \u201cbitmedi\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer yeteneklerini tamamen s\u00f6kmek ve y\u00fcksek oranda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyum stokunu ortadan kald\u0131rmak i\u00e7in daha fazla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Trump’\u0131n son tehditkar a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, bu hafta Asya finans piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ticaret hacmini tetikledi. Temmuz vadeli Brent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde ilk be\u015f dakika i\u00e7inde 4.000’den fazla kontrat i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma i\u00e7in, son Asya piyasas\u0131 i\u015flem g\u00fcnlerinin ilk dakikalar\u0131ndaki ortalama i\u015flem hacmi 1.000 kontrattan azd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u201cTACO\u201d s\u00f6n\u00fcyor, \u201cNACHO\u201d sahneye mi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor?<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131 Wall Street stratejistlerinin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne g\u00f6re, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi ‘k\u0131sa vadeli jeopolitik \u015fok’tan ‘k\u00fcresel enerji sistemi onar\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc sorununa’ d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki risk priminin yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n sadece ‘ate\u015fkes man\u015fetleri’ \u00fczerinden i\u015flem yapamayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor; art\u0131k envanter t\u00fckenmesi, nakliye sigortas\u0131, alternatif rota kapasitesi ve yeniden stoklama d\u00f6ng\u00fclerine odaklanmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Brent ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar civar\u0131na d\u00f6nmesi, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015febilece\u011fini kabul etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu durum, Federal Rezerv’in faiz indirim alan\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlamaya devam ederken, b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji hisselerinin, petrol hizmetlerinin, nakliye sigortas\u0131n\u0131n ve ABD kaya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00f6receli \u00e7ekicili\u011fini art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, havac\u0131l\u0131k, kimyasallar, t\u00fcketici sekt\u00f6rleri ve baz\u0131 k\u00e2rs\u0131z, faiz oran\u0131na duyarl\u0131, y\u00fcksek de\u011ferli b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yar\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lsa bile, k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131 ‘tek t\u0131kla yeniden ba\u015flatma’ de\u011fildir. Abluka devam ederse, enerji \u015foku fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan 2026-2027 y\u0131llar\u0131na yay\u0131lan bir makroekonomik enflasyon ve tedarik zinciri yeniden fiyatland\u0131rma temas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fecektir.<\/p>\n
Trump’\u0131n Nisan 2025’te k\u00fcresel bir ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatmas\u0131ndan bu yana, t\u00fcccarlar ‘TACO’ stratejisini (Trump Her Zaman Geri Ad\u0131m Atar) yayg\u0131n olarak benimsedi. Trump ne zaman yeni, daha agresif tarife tehditleri yay\u0131mlasa veya piyasa \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015flerine neden olan ba\u015fka \u00f6nemli tehditlerde bulunsa, k\u00fcresel hisse senedi ve tahvil piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, onun nihayetinde geri ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131na veya uygulanan politikalar\u0131n s\u00f6zl\u00fc tehditlerinden \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha zay\u0131f olaca\u011f\u0131na bahse girerler. Daha sonra, uygun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerde agresif bir \u015fekilde dip avc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaparak, yak\u0131n gelecekte \u00f6nemli bir piyasa toparlanmas\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmay\u0131 se\u00e7erler.<\/p>\n
Ancak, borsadaki en klasik momentum ticaret stratejisi \u2013 kazananlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak ve kaybedenleri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde satmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok say\u0131da teknik g\u00f6stergeye veya kurumlar taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6zelle\u015ftirilmi\u015f tescilli nicel modellere g\u00fcvenmek \u2013 tarihsel olarak k\u0131sa vadeli \u015fiddetli sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 defalarca i\u015faret eden a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bir seviyeye ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu, yapay zeka odakl\u0131 k\u00fcresel hisse senedi piyasas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminin ve ana trendinin hen\u00fcz ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131l\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Ancak, k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fczeyde, piyasa yak\u0131nda ‘kar revizyonu rallisi’nden ‘momentum ticaretinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nmas\u0131yla tetiklenen bir d\u00fczeltme a\u015famas\u0131na’ ge\u00e7ebilir. Giderek artan say\u0131da t\u00fcccar, art\u0131k ‘NACHO’ ticaret temas\u0131na bahse girmeye e\u011filimli.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki krizin h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme i\u015faret etmemesiyle birlikte, Wall Street t\u00fcccarlar\u0131 ‘TACO’ ticaret stratejisinden (ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde daha fazla olumlu ilerleme veya Trump’\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 t\u0131rmand\u0131rma konusundaki al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f isteksizli\u011fine bahse girme) ‘NACHO’ ticaret stratejisine (bo\u011faz\u0131n uzun vadeli ablukas\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011funu varsayma \u2013 Not A Chance Hormuz Opens) ge\u00e7iyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Brent ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Nisan sonunda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 126 dolarl\u0131k sava\u015f zaman\u0131 zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekilse de, 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Citi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 d\u00fczenli bir \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131lsa bile, k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa ve orta vadede son derece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi \u015eubat sonundaki ta\u015f\u0131ma seviyelerine d\u00f6nmeden \u00f6nce \u00f6nemli bir bo\u015fluk kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Bu d\u00f6nemde, Ortado\u011fu \u00fclkelerinden k\u00fcresel panik al\u0131mlar\u0131 veya envanter korkular\u0131 nedeniyle stoklama, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Ortado\u011fu’daki toplam petrol \u00fcretimi, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azald\u0131 ve bu \u00fcretim kesintisi ile petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndaki mant\u0131k art\u0131k sadece \u201cH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden nakliye kesintileri\u201d de\u011fil, \u201c\u00fcretim kesintileri + kesintiye u\u011fram\u0131\u015f ihracat nakliye kapasitesi + f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan altyap\u0131 hasar\u0131\u201d \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kombinasyonudur. Bu fakt\u00f6rler, yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Yardeni Research’\u00fcn kurucusu Ed Yardeni gibi k\u0131demli Wall Street stratejistlerinin, k\u00fcresel ekonominin zaten y\u00fcksek finansman maliyetleri ve jeopolitik \u015foklarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu bir ortamda, enerji hisselerinin d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel i\u015flemlerden portf\u00f6ylerde stratejik olarak fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 pozisyonlara ge\u00e7i\u015fini neden vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Momentum odakl\u0131 t\u00fcccarlar, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131nda bir ate\u015fkes ipucu bulmakta zorlan\u0131rken, k\u00fcresel piyasa momentum \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan jeopolitik risk moduna geri mi d\u00f6n\u00fcyor?<\/p>\n
Tarihsel veri istatistikleri, giderek a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hale gelen momentum ticaretinin, ABD hisse senetleri ve hatta k\u00fcresel borsalardaki yapay zeka yat\u0131r\u0131m patlamas\u0131 odakl\u0131 bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ‘a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nma\/kalabal\u0131k\/y\u00fcksek k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k’\u0131n ge\u00e7 co\u015fku a\u015famas\u0131na girdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak, bu durum, bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz sonundan ziyade, daha \u00e7ok a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u00fczeltme veya keskin piyasa rotasyonu risklerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir a\u015famay\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6zellikle, enflasyon endi\u015feleri, giderek a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hale gelen momentum ticareti ve y\u00fcksek hisse senedi piyasas\u0131 de\u011ferlemelerinin tipik kombinasyonu, piyasan\u0131n temel geni\u015fleme beklentilerini a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyatland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir \u2013 temel veriler veya makroekonomik ko\u015fullar beklentilerden \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sapt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (kar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri, faiz oran\u0131 beklentilerinde \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklikler veya getiri e\u011frisiyle ilgili artan finansman maliyetleri gibi), bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131 a\u015famal\u0131 d\u00fczeltmelere daha yatk\u0131n olur.<\/p>\n
Trump’\u0131n son bar\u0131\u015f \u00f6nerisini reddetmesinin ard\u0131ndan, \u0131s\u0131nan piyasa momentumuna yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Asya piyasalar\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ciddi bir ger\u00e7eklik kontrol\u00fcyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilirler. Trump, \u0130ran’\u0131n ABD ile on haftal\u0131k \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirme konusundaki son yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n ‘tamamen kabul edilemez’ oldu\u011funu belirtti. Enflasyon ve hatta ‘stagflasyon’ hakk\u0131ndaki piyasa endi\u015feleri h\u0131zla t\u0131rman\u0131rken, hem Brent ham petrol hem de WTI ham petrol Asya piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde y\u00fckseldi, ABD dolar\u0131 ise ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/p>\n
Bank of New Zealand k\u0131demli stratejisti Jason Wong \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: ‘Trump’\u0131n \u0130ran’\u0131n son bar\u0131\u015f plan\u0131n\u0131 reddetmesi, finans piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 bu haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ‘riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f’ ticaret moduna itebilir ve ge\u00e7en hafta g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz baz\u0131 fiyat hareketlerini tersine \u00e7evirebilir.’ ‘Bu e\u011filim erken i\u015flemlerde devam edebilir.’<\/p>\n
Trump, \u0130ran’\u0131n gemilerin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndan d\u00fczenli bir \u015fekilde ge\u00e7i\u015fine izin vermesini \u00f6nerirken, Washington’\u0131n gelecek ay \u0130ran limanlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ancak, bu \u00f6neri \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan tam olarak kabul edilmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor; her iki taraf da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’nda seyretmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan gemilere hala uyar\u0131 ate\u015fi a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel borsalar ge\u00e7en hafta y\u00fckseldi, S&P 500 Endeksi ve Nasdaq 100 Endeksi yeni rekorlar k\u0131rmaya devam etti. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvil getirisi y\u00fckseldi ve kripto para birimleri de artt\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD istihdam raporu, bir dizi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015firket kazanc\u0131yla birle\u015ferek, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle enerji bask\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisinin diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair piyasa spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD borsas\u0131n\u0131n kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verileri ve yapay zeka hesaplama g\u00fcc\u00fc etraf\u0131nda d\u00f6nen bir ticaret \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131, S&P 500 Endeksi ve Nasdaq 100 Endeksi’ni t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; S&P 500 Endeksi art arda alt\u0131 hafta boyunca y\u00fckseldi. NVIDIA, AMD, Intel ve Micron gibi k\u00fcresel yapay zeka hesaplama g\u00fcc\u00fc tedarik zincirinin liderlerini kapsayan ve \u00e7ip hisseleri i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel bir g\u00f6sterge ve ‘yapay zeka hesaplama g\u00fcc\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131m barometresi’ olarak kabul edilen Philadelphia Yar\u0131 \u0130letken Endeksi de art arda alt\u0131 hafta boyunca y\u00fckselerek Nisan ay\u0131ndaki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden yakla\u015f\u0131k %250 artt\u0131. Fiyat-sat\u0131\u015f oran\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, Philadelphia Yar\u0131 \u0130letken Endeksi’nin de\u011feri rekor seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Barclays Private Bank & Wealth Management Ba\u015f Piyasa Stratejisti Julien Lafargue \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: ‘Kazan\u00e7 sezonu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sona erdi\u011fine g\u00f6re, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015f\u00fcphesiz H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’nda ve bu kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol tankerlerinin nakliye trafi\u011finde \u00f6nemli bir iyile\u015fme olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerinde kalacak.’ Kurumlar taraf\u0131ndan derlenen verilere g\u00f6re, S&P 500 endeks bile\u015fenlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %82’si ilk \u00e7eyrekte kar beklentilerini a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Momentum g\u00f6stergesinin rallisi, tarihsel olarak k\u0131sa vadeli keskin sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bir\u00e7ok kez i\u015faret eden a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131. Goldman Sachs’\u0131n ticaret b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc bu hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda, ana arac\u0131l\u0131k verilerine dayanarak, en y\u00fcksek momentumlu hisse senetlerinin de\u011ferlemelerinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 derecede gerildi\u011fini ve piyasa konumland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n son y\u0131llar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyeleri aras\u0131nda oldu\u011funu yazd\u0131. Wall Street kurumlar\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda momentum ticareti, sadece birka\u00e7 teknik g\u00f6stergeye dayanmaz; bunun yerine, g\u00f6receli g\u00fc\u00e7, son 6-12 aydaki getiriler (en son bir ayl\u0131k tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f etkisi hari\u00e7), volatilite ayarlamalar\u0131, sekt\u00f6r tarafs\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131, risk modelleri, kalabal\u0131kla\u015fma, fon ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve hacim sinyalleri gibi metrikleri i\u00e7eren \u00f6zelle\u015ftirilmi\u015f nicel modeller kullanarak s\u00f6zde momentum ticaret stratejilerini veya momentum fakt\u00f6rlerini y\u00f6nlendirir.<\/p>\n
Lombard Odier Asset Management K\u0131demli Stratejisti Homin Lee \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti: ‘\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta gemilerin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 ge\u00e7me giri\u015fimleri ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmaya ba\u015flarsa, bo\u011fazdan deniz ge\u00e7i\u015finin en az\u0131ndan k\u0131smen restore edilip edilmedi\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir test g\u00f6revi g\u00f6recektir.’ ‘Bo\u011fazla ilgili en son endi\u015fe verici ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n, ba\u015fka bir b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya do\u011fru bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fil, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sonras\u0131 d\u00fczenlemeler \u00fczerine z\u0131mni m\u00fczakereleri temsil etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131z.’<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak yeni t\u00fcketici fiyat verileri, ABD enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn bir tehdit olmaya devam etti\u011fini do\u011frulayabilir. Kurumlar taraf\u0131ndan anket yap\u0131lan ekonomistler, Nisan ay\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi’nde (T\u00dcFE) ayl\u0131k %0,6’l\u0131k \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n medyan tahminini yap\u0131yorlar. Bu, Mart ay\u0131nda 2022’den bu yana kaydedilen en b\u00fcy\u00fck ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geliyor. ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu’ndan T\u00dcFE raporunun Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ancak, Federal Rezerv’in, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisinin nas\u0131l geli\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6zlemlemek i\u00e7in g\u00f6sterge faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 uzun bir s\u00fcre de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Para piyasas\u0131 fiyatland\u0131rmas\u0131, Fed’in bu y\u0131l boyunca oranlar\u0131 sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bir medya kurulu\u015fu Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck sabit gelir yat\u0131r\u0131m devi Pimco’nun Ba\u015f Yat\u0131r\u0131m Sorumlusu Dan Ivascyn’in bir r\u00f6portajda, \u0130ran’\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkili enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, enflasyonu merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %2 hedefine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan Federal Rezerv politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in yeni zorluklar yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fini bildirdi. Ivascyn \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti: ‘ABD bu senaryodan daha uzakta, ancak bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ko\u015fullar g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Avrupa, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ve hatta belki Japonya’da daha fazla parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma g\u00f6rmeniz muhtemeldir. B\u00f6yle bir durumun ABD’de de meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tamamen g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmem.’<\/p>\n
Edit\u00f6r\/Joe<\/p>\n
\u00c7eviri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc taraf yaz\u0131l\u0131m taraf\u0131ndan sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131daki i\u00e7erik yaln\u0131zca bilgilendirme veya e\u011fitim ama\u00e7l\u0131d\u0131r ve Futu ile ilgili herhangi bir yat\u0131r\u0131m tavsiyesi niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131maz. T\u00fcm bu i\u00e7eriklerin do\u011frulu\u011funu, kesinli\u011fini ve \u00f6zg\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fsak da bunu garanti edemeyiz.<\/p>\n
#Ortado\u011fuBar\u0131\u015f\u0131 #PetrolFiyatlar\u0131 #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #K\u00fcreselPiyasa #Enflasyon #YapayZeka #JeopolitikRisk #Trump #EnerjiKrizi #NACHOStratejisi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran’\u0131n Ortado\u011fu’daki sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirme \u00f6nerisine verdi\u011fi son yan\u0131t\u0131 reddetti ve stratejik \u00f6neme sahip H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131na neden oldu. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Liman\u0131’n\u0131n devam eden ablukas\u0131, ham petrol, do\u011fal gaz ve yak\u0131t i\u00e7in kritik bir k\u00fcresel tedarik yolunu etkili bir \u015fekilde kesintiye u\u011fratarak enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti ve enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Zhitong Finance’a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24377,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24376","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24376"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24376\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/24377"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24376"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24376"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}