{"id":23221,"date":"2026-05-10T13:22:13","date_gmt":"2026-05-10T09:52:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/?p=23221"},"modified":"2026-05-10T13:22:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T09:52:13","slug":"bolgesel-gerilimler-ve-bati-politikalari-kuresel-gubre-piyasasini-sarsiyor-iran-korfezindeki-gelismeler-fiyatlari-ucurdu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/?p=23221&lang=tr","title":{"rendered":"B\u00f6lgesel Gerilimler ve Bat\u0131 Politikalar\u0131 K\u00fcresel G\u00fcbre Piyasas\u0131n\u0131 Sars\u0131yor: \u0130ran K\u00f6rfezi’ndeki Geli\u015fmeler Fiyatlar\u0131 U\u00e7urdu"},"content":{"rendered":"

B\u00f6lgesel Gerilimler ve Bat\u0131 Politikalar\u0131 K\u00fcresel G\u00fcbre Piyasas\u0131n\u0131 Sars\u0131yor: \u0130ran K\u00f6rfezi’ndeki Geli\u015fmeler Fiyatlar\u0131 U\u00e7urdu<\/h1>\n

URBANA, Ill. \u2014 \u0130ran K\u00f6rfezi’nde ya\u015fanan son gerilimler ve d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahaleler nedeniyle g\u00fcbre sevkiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan aksakl\u0131klar, fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00f6rt y\u0131l \u00f6nceki ba\u015fka bir sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu durum, k\u00fcresel tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc derinden etkileyecek endi\u015feleri beraberinde getiriyor.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel Tedarik Zincirindeki Hassasiyet<\/h2>\n

Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri g\u00fcbre end\u00fcstrisi, talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in hem yerel \u00fcretimi hem de ithalat\u0131 kullanmaktad\u0131r. Potasyumun yakla\u015f\u0131k %97’si, azotun %18’i ve fosfat\u0131n %12’si ithal edilmektedir. Bu, ABD’nin k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerine ne kadar ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran K\u00f6rfezi’ndeki istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa maruz kalan \u00fclkeler, k\u00fcresel \u00fcre ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %49’unu ve amonyak ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %30’unu olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. \u0130ran, Katar, Suudi Arabistan ve M\u0131s\u0131r<\/strong> gibi \u00fclkeler, d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda \u00f6nemli g\u00fcbre ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yer almaktad\u0131r. K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinde \u00fcretilen b\u00fcy\u00fck hacimli amonyak, \u00fcre, fosfat, k\u00fck\u00fcrt ve petrol, deniz trafi\u011finin zaman zaman k\u0131s\u0131tland\u0131\u011f\u0131 stratejik H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden sevk edilmektedir. Bu durum, b\u00f6lgedeki g\u00fcvenlik endi\u015felerinin ve d\u0131\u015f tehditlerin k\u00fcresel ticareti nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011finin somut bir g\u00f6stergesidir.<\/p>\n

Tarih Tekerr\u00fcr Ediyor: Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131’n\u0131n Etkileri<\/h2>\n

K\u00fcresel g\u00fcbre ticaretinin bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 en son 2022’de Rusya’n\u0131n Ukrayna’ya y\u00f6nelik operasyonundan sonra tan\u0131k olunmu\u015ftu. Bu olay, \u015eubat’tan Nisan’a kadar olan d\u00f6nemde fiyatlar\u0131 %50’den fazla art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Devam eden bu sava\u015ftan \u00f6nce de g\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131, 2020’nin sonlar\u0131ndan itibaren \u00e7e\u015fitli fakt\u00f6rler nedeniyle y\u00fckseli\u015fteydi. COVID k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan, k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve mahsul fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla 2021’in sonlar\u0131nda g\u00fcbre talebi yeniden y\u00fckseldi. Bu d\u00f6nemde arz taraf\u0131nda ise, g\u00fcbre \u00fcretiminde ana hammadde ve enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 olan do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar ile baz\u0131 arz kapasitesi azalmalar\u0131 da fiyatlar \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n

Ukrayna’daki sava\u015f, Bat\u0131’n\u0131n Rusya ve Belarus’a uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni veya geni\u015fletilmi\u015f ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, bu \u00fclkelerden g\u00fcbre ihracat\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fine dair belirsizlikler ve Karadeniz ticaret yollar\u0131ndaki aksakl\u0131klar nedeniyle fiyatlar\u0131 dramatik bir \u015fekilde y\u00fckseltti. 2020’de Rusya, k\u00fcresel \u00fcre ticaretinin %14’\u00fcn\u00fc ve fosfat ticaretinin %11’ini olu\u015ftururken, Rusya ve Belarus birlikte k\u00fcresel potas ticaretinin %41’ini kar\u015f\u0131lamaktayd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Mevcut Durum ve Fiyat Art\u0131\u015flar\u0131<\/h2>\n

Illinois \u00dcniversitesi’nden tar\u0131m y\u00f6netimi profes\u00f6r\u00fc Nick Paulson, \u0130ran K\u00f6rfezi’ndeki mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 ve bunun sonucunda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan fiyatlar\u0131 bir farmdoc videosunda de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131 2025’in ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri zaten art\u0131yordu. Ancak \u0130ran’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 ve Ortado\u011fu’dan gelen mal ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ilgili etkiler, 27 \u015eubat’ta \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana \u00e7ok daha keskin art\u0131\u015flara neden oldu.<\/p>\n

USDA Tar\u0131m Pazarlama Hizmetleri’nin Nisan ortas\u0131 Illinois \u00fcretim maliyeti raporunu kullanan Paulson, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc dalgalanmalar\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n

Paulson, “Illinois’deki azotlu g\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131, 2023’\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131ndan ortalar\u0131na kadar g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131, ancak 2022’de ula\u015f\u0131lan zirvelerin alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor” dedi.<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Illinois’de susuz amonyak ortalama fiyat\u0131 17 Nisan itibar\u0131yla ton ba\u015f\u0131na 1.123 dolar\u0131n biraz \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, \u015eubat sonundaki fiyat seviyelerinin %30’dan fazla ve 2025’in ba\u015f\u0131nda Illinois’deki susuz amonyak fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n %56 \u00fczerinde bir art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/li>\n
  • Illinois’de ortalama \u00fcre fiyatlar\u0131 17 Nisan itibar\u0131yla ton ba\u015f\u0131na 902 dolar\u0131n biraz \u00fczerine ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana %55 ve Ocak 2025’ten bu yana %68’lik bir art\u0131\u015f demektir.<\/li>\n
  • %28’lik s\u0131v\u0131 azot \u00e7\u00f6zeltilerinin ortalama fiyat\u0131 Nisan ortas\u0131 itibar\u0131yla ton ba\u015f\u0131na 523 dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Bu, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana %20’den fazla ve 2025’in ba\u015flar\u0131na g\u00f6re %60 daha y\u00fcksek bir art\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Fosfatl\u0131 g\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131 da y\u00fckseli\u015fte.<\/p>\n

      \n
    • Paulson, “Illinois’de DAP’\u0131n ortalama fiyat\u0131 ton ba\u015f\u0131na 866 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, \u015eubat ay\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelerden yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 ve Ocak 2025’e g\u00f6re %19’dan fazla daha y\u00fcksek” dedi.<\/li>\n
    • “MAP’\u0131n ortalama fiyat\u0131 ton ba\u015f\u0131na 894 dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki seviyelerden %4 ve 2025’in ba\u015flar\u0131na g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %17 daha y\u00fcksek.”<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Azotlu \u00fcr\u00fcnlere benzer \u015fekilde, fosfatl\u0131 g\u00fcbreler de 2023’ten bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f ortalama fiyat seviyelerine ula\u015ft\u0131, ancak 2022’de ula\u015f\u0131lan zirvelerin alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

      Illinois’de potas\u0131n ortalama fiyat\u0131 Nisan ortas\u0131 itibar\u0131yla ton ba\u015f\u0131na 505 dolar olup, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana %3 artt\u0131, ancak 2025’in ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana %10’dan fazla y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

      Potas fiyatlar\u0131, 2023 ortas\u0131ndan 2024 ortas\u0131na kadar olan seviyelere geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc, ancak 2022’de ula\u015f\u0131lan zirve seviyelerinin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

      Paulson, “\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar, 2026 mahsul\u00fc i\u00e7in toplam g\u00fcbre maliyetlerinde nispeten daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck art\u0131\u015flara yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r, zira g\u00fcbrelerin bir k\u0131sm\u0131 fiyatlar mevcut zirvelerine ula\u015fmadan \u00f6nce sat\u0131n al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ve uygulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r” dedi.<\/p>\n

      “\u00d6zellikle \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n devam etmesi ve fiyatlar\u0131n sonbahara do\u011fru y\u00fckselmeye devam etmesi halinde, dikkatler sonunda 2027 mahsul y\u0131l\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkiye \u00e7evrilecektir.”<\/p>\n

      Yak\u0131t Maliyetleri de Y\u00fckseli\u015fte<\/h2>\n

      Illinois’de ortalama \u00e7iftlik dizel fiyat\u0131 17 Nisan itibar\u0131yla galon ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 4,60 dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu, \u015eubat sonundaki fiyatlardan %45’ten fazla ve 2025’in ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 daha y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n

      Paulson, “G\u00fcbrelerin aksine, dizel yak\u0131t maliyetleri 2022’deki zirvelerden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 2024 ortas\u0131ndan 2025’e kadar galon ba\u015f\u0131na 3 dolar civar\u0131nda veya alt\u0131nda ortalamalara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut fiyatlar 2022’deki zirve fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmakla birlikte, o y\u0131ldan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f seviyelere geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc” dedi.<\/p>\n

      “2026’da daha y\u00fcksek yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim maliyetleri \u00fczerindeki do\u011frudan etkisine ek olarak, daha uzun s\u00fcreli y\u00fcksek enerji ve yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2027’deki girdiler ve genel \u00fcretim maliyetleri \u00fczerindeki etkisi konusunda da endi\u015feler ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.”<\/p>\n

      #K\u00fcreselG\u00fcbreFiyatlar\u0131 #\u0130ranK\u00f6rfezi #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #UkraynaSava\u015f\u0131 #Tar\u0131mMaliyetleri #EnerjiFiyatlar\u0131 #G\u00fcbreTedarikZinciri #EkonomikYapt\u0131r\u0131mlar #B\u00f6lgeselGerilimler #G\u0131daG\u00fcvenli\u011fi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      B\u00f6lgesel Gerilimler ve Bat\u0131 Politikalar\u0131 K\u00fcresel G\u00fcbre Piyasas\u0131n\u0131 Sars\u0131yor: \u0130ran K\u00f6rfezi’ndeki Geli\u015fmeler Fiyatlar\u0131 U\u00e7urdu URBANA, Ill. \u2014 \u0130ran K\u00f6rfezi’nde ya\u015fanan son gerilimler ve d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahaleler nedeniyle g\u00fcbre sevkiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan aksakl\u0131klar, fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00f6rt y\u0131l \u00f6nceki ba\u015fka bir sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu durum, k\u00fcresel tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc derinden etkileyecek endi\u015feleri beraberinde getiriyor. K\u00fcresel Tedarik […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":23222,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23221"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23221\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/23222"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}