{"id":19708,"date":"2026-05-07T00:50:34","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T21:20:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/?p=19708"},"modified":"2026-05-07T00:50:34","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T21:20:34","slug":"ortadogu-savasi-hindistan-ekonomik-buyumesini-raydan-cikarma-tehdidi-olusturuyor-borsa-yatirimcilari-endiselenmeli-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/?p=19708&lang=tr","title":{"rendered":"Ortado\u011fu Sava\u015f\u0131 Hindistan Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fcmesini Raydan \u00c7\u0131karma Tehdidi Olu\u015fturuyor: Borsa Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Endi\u015felenmeli mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ortado\u011fu’daki sava\u015f, Hindistan ekonomisinin yak\u0131n vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc belirsiz hale getirerek, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesini raydan \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131, enflasyonu y\u00fckseltece\u011fi ve \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkileyerek borsa getirilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fi endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 iki aydan uzun s\u00fcredir varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrediyor; bu durum, Hindistan’\u0131n cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, enflasyon ve GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkilerine dair endi\u015feleri k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Her iki taraf\u0131n diplomatik \u00e7abalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen beklenen ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u00e7\u0131kmaza girmi\u015f durumda. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmaya nihai bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulunmas\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ham petrol ve LPG tedarikinin sorunsuz bir \u015fekilde devam etmesini sa\u011flayabilir ve fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n

Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan olmaya devam edecektir. Ortado\u011fu’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc ne kadar gecikirse, Hindistan ekonomisinin g\u00f6rece\u011fi zarar da o kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Piramal Group Ba\u015f Ekonomisti Debopam Chaudhuri, “Hindistan’\u0131n enerji sepetinin baz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki arz k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131, fiyatlardaki keskin art\u0131\u015fla birle\u015ferek bu mali y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ekonomik faaliyetler i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli olumsuzluklar yaratt\u0131. \u00dclkenin geni\u015f ekonomik taban\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00f6viz rezervleri ve \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmi\u015f ham petrol tedarik stratejisi bu etkiyi yumu\u015fatmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olsa da, bu tampon s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z de\u011fildir,” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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Chaudhuri ayr\u0131ca, “H\u00fck\u00fcmet verileri, LPG t\u00fcketiminde (y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda) art arda iki ayl\u0131k bir daralman\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Nisan 2026’da havac\u0131l\u0131k t\u00fcrbin yak\u0131t\u0131 talebinde yumu\u015fama belirtilerini g\u00f6steriyor; her ikisi de faaliyette potansiyel bir so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ediyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n s\u00fcrekli abluka alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 gibi uzun s\u00fcreli bir kesinti, bu e\u011filimleri art\u0131rabilir ve y\u00fcksek fiyatlarla birlikte bu y\u0131lki GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden 25-35 baz puan t\u0131ra\u015flayabilir,” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Ancak Chaudhuri, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n zaman\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ve K\u00f6rfez nakliye rotalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7eyrek ortas\u0131na kadar yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltmeyi tetikleyebilece\u011fine ve Hindistan’\u0131n ekonomik ivmesinde daha geni\u015f bir yava\u015flama endi\u015felerini gidermeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilece\u011fine inan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fcme Beklentileri G\u00f6lgede Kal\u0131yor<\/a><\/h2>\n

Hindistan ekonomisi 2022’den bu yana y\u0131ll\u0131k %7’nin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Ancak mevcut mali y\u0131lda, ekonomi \u00e7o\u011funlukla k\u00fcresel fakt\u00f6rler nedeniyle zorluklarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n

Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131, Nisan ay\u0131 politika toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Hindistan’\u0131n GSY\u0130H’sinin 2027 mali y\u0131l\u0131nda %6,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Merkez bankas\u0131, 2027 mali y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) bazl\u0131 enflasyonu %4,6 olarak tahmin etti\u011finden, enflasyon %2-6’l\u0131k tolerans band\u0131nda kalabilir. Ancak uzmanlar, Hindistan ekonomisinin mevcut mali y\u0131lda %6-6,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6rebilece\u011fine inan\u0131yor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre mevcut seviyelerde kal\u0131rsa bu tahmin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilebilir.<\/p>\n

Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler raporuna g\u00f6re, Hindistan ekonomisinin 2027 mali y\u0131l\u0131nda %6,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. K\u00fcresel arac\u0131 kurum UBS, Hindistan GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini 2027 mali y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in %6,2’ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Standard Chartered Bank ise, ortalama varil ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 90 dolar olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayarak Hindistan ekonomisi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %7,1’den %6,4’e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Endi\u015felenmeli mi?<\/a><\/h2>\n

Hindistan’\u0131n bu y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin darbe almas\u0131 beklense de, \u00fclke hala d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomileri aras\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Hindistan, b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flamas\u0131 ya\u015fayan tek \u00fclke olmayacak; d\u00fcnyadaki t\u00fcm b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerin Ortado\u011fu geriliminin ac\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hissetmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 Hindistan Ba\u015f Ekonomisti Aurelien Kruse’ye g\u00f6re, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makroekonomik temellerin deste\u011fiyle Hindistan’\u0131n 2027 mali y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomileri aras\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. Ancak ekonomideki toparlanma kademeli olacakt\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca, y\u00fcksek ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ikinci ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc dereceden etkileri, bu y\u0131l borsa getirilerini m\u00fctevaz\u0131 seviyelerde tutabilir.<\/p>\n

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Ventura Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vinit Bolinjkar, Hindistan borsas\u0131n\u0131n 2027 mali y\u0131l\u0131nda sadece m\u00fctevaz\u0131 getiriler sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n bask\u0131n tema olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Bolinjkar, “De\u011ferlemeler, tarihi normlara ve geli\u015fmekte olan piyasa emsallerine g\u00f6re zaten daha zengin, bu nedenle petroldeki herhangi bir ek art\u0131\u015f veya zay\u0131f bir rupi, \u00f6zellikle faize duyarl\u0131 ve ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 segmentlerde keskin d\u00fczeltmeleri tetikleyebilir,” dedi.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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SAMCO Securities Piyasa Perspektifleri ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Apurva Sheth, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki 10 dolarl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 13-14 milyar dolar etkiledi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti. Hindistan, sava\u015f \u00e7\u0131kmadan \u00f6nce ham petrol\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 65 dolardan sat\u0131n al\u0131yordu. Ham petrol\u00fcn 100 dolar civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131yla, ek olarak 50-60 milyar dolar daha \u00f6demek zorunda kalacak.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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Sheth, bunun 2008’deki son b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol fiyat\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kadar zararl\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fine inan\u0131yor. Ancak sorun her zaman, \u00e7o\u011fu piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hesaplamalar\u0131na dahil edemedi\u011fi ikinci ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc dereceden etkilerden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Sheth, “Ortado\u011fu’daki durum d\u00fczelene kadar ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 son derece de\u011fi\u015fken ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez kalacakt\u0131r. Bu durum, ikinci ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc dereceden etkilerle birlikte, piyasalar\u0131 mali y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutacakt\u0131r. Nifty’nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay boyunca 26.500 ile 22.500 aras\u0131nda seyretmesini bekliyoruz,” dedi.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Piyasa ile ilgili t\u00fcm haberleri buradan okuyun. Yasal Uyar\u0131: Bu haber sadece e\u011fitim ama\u00e7l\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130fade edilen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ve tavsiyeler, Mint’in de\u011fil, bireysel analistlerin veya arac\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleridir. Piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131 h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011finden ve ko\u015fullar farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterebilece\u011finden, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara herhangi bir yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 vermeden \u00f6nce sertifikal\u0131 uzmanlara dan\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 tavsiye edilir.<\/em><\/p>\n

#HindistanEkonomisi #Ortado\u011fuSava\u015f\u0131 #PetrolFiyatlar\u0131 #K\u00fcreselEkonomi #BorsaYat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 #EnflasyonEndi\u015fesi #GSY\u0130HB\u00fcy\u00fcmesi #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #PiyasaAnalizi #Yat\u0131r\u0131mTavsiyesi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ortado\u011fu’daki sava\u015f, Hindistan ekonomisinin yak\u0131n vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc belirsiz hale getirerek, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesini raydan \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131, enflasyonu y\u00fckseltece\u011fi ve \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkileyerek borsa getirilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fi endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 iki aydan uzun s\u00fcredir varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrediyor; bu durum, Hindistan’\u0131n cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, enflasyon ve GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkilerine […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19709,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19708","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19708"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19708\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/19709"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}