\u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretme s\u00fcresi, ge\u00e7en yazdan bu yana de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Bu durum, Tahran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek oranda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyum stokunun yok edilmesinin gerekebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Konuya yak\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 kayna\u011fa g\u00f6re, ABD istihbarat de\u011ferlendirmeleri, \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duyaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrenin ge\u00e7en yazdan bu yana de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Analistler, o d\u00f6nemde ABD-\u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu s\u00fcreci bir y\u0131la kadar erteledi\u011fini tahmin etmi\u015flerdi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin n\u00fckleer bomba geli\u015ftirmesini durdurmak amac\u0131yla ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 iki ayl\u0131k sava\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bile Tahran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmeler genel olarak de\u011fi\u015fmeden kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
28 \u015eubat’ta ba\u015flayan son ABD ve \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 konvansiyonel askeri hedeflere odaklanm\u0131\u015f olsa da, \u0130srail bir dizi \u00f6nemli n\u00fckleer tesisi vurdu.<\/p>\n
De\u011fi\u015fmeyen zaman \u00e7izelgesi, Tahran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde engellemek i\u00e7in \u0130ran’\u0131n kalan y\u00fcksek oranda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyum (HEU) stokunun yok edilmesini veya kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ve \u0130ran’\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla 7 Nisan’da ate\u015fkes ilan etmesinden bu yana sava\u015f duraklad\u0131. Her iki taraf da derinlemesine b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken gerilim y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor ve \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki trafi\u011fi bo\u011farak d\u00fcnya petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20’sini engelledi ve k\u00fcresel bir enerji krizi ba\u015flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Savunma Bakan\u0131 Pete Hegseth, ABD’nin Tahran ile devam eden m\u00fczakereler yoluyla \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah elde etmemesini sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefledi\u011fini kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD istihbarat te\u015fkilatlar\u0131, Haziran ay\u0131ndaki 12 g\u00fcnl\u00fck sava\u015ftan \u00f6nce, \u0130ran’\u0131n muhtemelen bir silah i\u00e7in yeterli bomba s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 uranyum \u00fcretebilece\u011fi ve yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 ila alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde bir bomba yapabilece\u011fi sonucuna varm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. ABD istihbarat\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmak i\u00e7in isminin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131 istemeyen iki kaynak bu bilgiyi payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haziran ay\u0131nda ABD’nin Natanz, Fordow ve \u0130sfahan n\u00fckleer komplekslerini vuran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, ABD istihbarat tahminleri bu s\u00fcreyi yakla\u015f\u0131k dokuz ay ila bir y\u0131la kadar erteledi. Bu bilgiyi, iki kaynak ve de\u011ferlendirmelere a\u015fina bir ki\u015fi aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sald\u0131r\u0131lar, o d\u00f6nemde faaliyette oldu\u011fu bilinen \u00fc\u00e7 zenginle\u015ftirme tesisini yok etti veya ciddi \u015fekilde hasar verdi. Ancak BM n\u00fckleer g\u00f6zlemcisi, %60 oran\u0131nda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k 440 kilogram uranyumun nerede oldu\u011funu do\u011frulayamad\u0131. Kurum, yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u0130sfahan N\u00fckleer Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi’ndeki bir yeralt\u0131 t\u00fcnel kompleksinde depoland\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yor, ancak denetimler ask\u0131ya al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri bunu teyit edemedi.<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 Atom Enerjisi Ajans\u0131 (IAEA), toplam HEU stokunun daha fazla zenginle\u015ftirilirse 10 bomba i\u00e7in yeterli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
Beyaz Saray s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc Olivia Wales, Haziran operasyonu ve \u015eubat ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayan son sava\u015fa at\u0131fta bulunarak, “Gece Yar\u0131s\u0131 \u00c7ekici Operasyonu \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer tesislerini yok ederken, Destans\u0131 \u00d6fke Operasyonu bu ba\u015far\u0131y\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda bir koruyucu kalkan olarak kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 savunma sanayi \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc de yok ederek peki\u015ftirdi,” dedi. “Ba\u015fkan Trump, \u0130ran’\u0131n asla n\u00fckleer silaha sahip olamayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda uzun zamand\u0131r netti ve bl\u00f6f yapmaz.”<\/p>\n
Ulusal \u0130stihbarat Direkt\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Ofisi yorum talebine yan\u0131t vermedi.<\/p>\n
Tahran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 durdurmak, ABD’nin temel hedeflerinden biri. Trump da dahil olmak \u00fczere ABD’li yetkililer, \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n temel bir hedefi olarak defalarca dile getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, 2 Mart’ta X\/Twitter’da, “\u0130ran’\u0131n asla n\u00fckleer silah elde etmesine izin verilemez. Bu operasyonun amac\u0131 budur,” diye yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6yle bir silah\u0131 \u00fcretmesinin ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fine dair de\u011fi\u015fmeyen tahmin, k\u0131smen son ABD ve \u0130srail askeri kampanyas\u0131n\u0131n odak noktas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail n\u00fckleerle ilgili hedefleri, Mart sonunda bir uranyum i\u015fleme tesisi de dahil olmak \u00fczere vurmu\u015f olsa da, ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 konvansiyonel askeri yeteneklere, \u0130ran liderli\u011fine ve askeri-sanayi \u00fcss\u00fcne yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131 analistlere g\u00f6re, de\u011fi\u015fmeyen tahminler, Haziran ay\u0131ndaki askeri eylemlerin ard\u0131ndan kolayca ve g\u00fcvenli bir \u015fekilde yok edilebilecek b\u00fcy\u00fck n\u00fckleer hedeflerin eksikli\u011finden de kaynaklanabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelere liderlik eden eski k\u0131demli ABD istihbarat analisti Eric Brewer, son ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n n\u00fckleerle ilgili hedeflere \u00f6ncelik vermemesi nedeniyle de\u011ferlendirmelerin de\u011fi\u015fmemesinin \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
N\u00fckleer Tehdit Giri\u015fimi silah kontrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015funun n\u00fckleer materyaller \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma program\u0131 ba\u015fkan yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Brewer, “Bildi\u011fimiz kadar\u0131yla \u0130ran hala t\u00fcm n\u00fckleer materyallerine sahip,” dedi. “Bu materyal muhtemelen ABD m\u00fchimmat\u0131n\u0131n n\u00fcfuz edemeyece\u011fi derin yeralt\u0131 tesislerinde bulunuyor.”<\/p>\n
Son haftalarda, ABD’li yetkililer, \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde engelleyecek tehlikeli operasyonlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcler. Bu se\u00e7enekler aras\u0131nda, \u0130sfahan sahas\u0131ndaki t\u00fcnel kompleksinde depoland\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131lan HEU’yu ele ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in kara bask\u0131nlar\u0131 da yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, n\u00fckleer silah aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011funu defalarca reddetti. ABD istihbarat te\u015fkilatlar\u0131 ve IAEA, Tahran’\u0131n 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda sava\u015f ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 geli\u015ftirme \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 durdurdu\u011funu belirtiyor, ancak baz\u0131 uzmanlar ve \u0130srail, program\u0131n kilit k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 gizlice korudu\u011funu iddia ediyor.<\/p>\n
Uzmanlar, \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer kapasitesini kesin olarak de\u011ferlendirmenin, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen istihbarat servisleri i\u00e7in bile zor oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Birka\u00e7 ABD istihbarat te\u015fkilat\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak inceledi ve kaynaklar, \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretme kapasitesi konusunda geni\u015f bir fikir birli\u011finden bahsetse de, ayk\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeler de ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabiliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer emellerinin, istihbarat tahminlerinin g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden daha fazla gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n
ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio da dahil olmak \u00fczere baz\u0131 yetkililer, ABD’nin \u0130ran hava savunma sistemlerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u0130ran’\u0131n gelecekte silahlanmaya y\u00f6nelmesi durumunda n\u00fckleer tesislerini savunma yetene\u011fini azaltarak n\u00fckleer tehdidi azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundu.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail’in \u0130ran’\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen n\u00fckleer bilim adamlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik suikastlar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisi var.<\/p>\n
Eski BM n\u00fckleer denet\u00e7isi ve Bilim ve Uluslararas\u0131 G\u00fcvenlik Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’n\u00fc y\u00f6neten David Albright, cinayetlerin Tahran’\u0131n ama\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi i\u015flev g\u00f6recek bir bomba yapma yetene\u011fine \u00f6nemli belirsizlikler katt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
“Herkes bilginin bombalanamayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda hemfikir, ancak bilgi birikimi kesinlikle yok edilebilir,” dedi.<\/p>\n
#\u0130ranN\u00fckleerProgram\u0131 #ABD\u0130srailSald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 #N\u00fckleerSilah #UranyumZenginle\u015ftirme #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #N\u00fckleerTehdit #Uluslararas\u0131AtomEnerjisiAjans\u0131 #DonaldTrump #Ortado\u011fuGerilimi #\u0130ranSava\u015f\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretme s\u00fcresi, ge\u00e7en yazdan bu yana de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Bu durum, Tahran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek oranda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyum stokunun yok edilmesinin gerekebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Konuya yak\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 kayna\u011fa g\u00f6re, ABD istihbarat de\u011ferlendirmeleri, \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duyaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrenin ge\u00e7en yazdan bu yana de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Analistler, o d\u00f6nemde ABD-\u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18434,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18433","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18433"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18433\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18434"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18433"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18433"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18433"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}