WASHINGTON, 4 May\u0131s (Reuters) – Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, enflasyonun halihaz\u0131rda y\u00fckseli\u015fte oldu\u011funu ve Orta Do\u011fu’daki sava\u015f\u0131n 2027’ye kadar s\u00fcrmesi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 125 dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 halinde k\u00fcresel ekonominin “\u00e7ok daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir sonu\u00e7la” kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131.<\/p>\n
IMF Genel Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Kristalina Georgieva, sava\u015f\u0131n devam etmesinin, k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 verenin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 varsayan “referans senaryosunun” (bu senaryo, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede y\u00fczde 3,1’e hafif bir yava\u015flama ve fiyatlarda y\u00fczde 4,4’e hafif bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu) art\u0131k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Georgieva, “Bu senaryo, ge\u00e7en her g\u00fcnle birlikte dikiz aynas\u0131nda daha da geride kal\u0131yor,” dedi.<\/p>\n
Sava\u015f\u0131n devam etmesi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar civar\u0131nda veya \u00fczerinde olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmini ve artan enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n, IMF’nin “olumsuz senaryosunun” halihaz\u0131rda y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinin sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak sava\u015f\u0131n devam etmesi halinde bunun de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fini Milken Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’n\u00fcn ev sahipli\u011fi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir konferansta dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
“\u015eimdi, e\u011fer bu durum 2027’ye kadar devam eder ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 125 dolara ula\u015f\u0131rsa, \u00e7ok daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir sonu\u00e7 beklemeliyiz,” dedi. “O zaman enflasyonun t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz ve ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak enflasyon beklentileri sabitli\u011fini yitirmeye ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r.”<\/p>\n
IMF, ge\u00e7en ay Orta Do\u011fu’daki sava\u015fla ilgili b\u00fcy\u00fck belirsizlikler aras\u0131nda 2026 ve 2027’deki k\u00fcresel GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcme yolu i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 senaryo yay\u0131nlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131: ana “referans tahmini”, orta d\u00fczeyde bir “olumsuz senaryo” ve \u00e7ok daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir “\u015fiddetli senaryo”.<\/p>\n
Olumsuz senaryo, 2026’da k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 2,5’e yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 ve man\u015fet enflasyonun y\u00fczde 5,4 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. \u015eiddetli senaryo ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin sadece y\u00fczde 2 ve man\u015fet enflasyonun y\u00fczde 5,8 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyordu.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 panelde konu\u015fan Chevron Y\u00f6netim Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve CEO’su Mike Wirth, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesinde k\u00fcresel ham petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 20’sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 nedeniyle d\u00fcnya genelinde fiziksel petrol arz\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f g\u00f6sterece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Wirth, ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran ile olan sava\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle bo\u011faz kapal\u0131 kalmaya devam ettik\u00e7e, talebin arz\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak \u00fczere ayarlanmas\u0131yla ekonomilerin \u00f6nce Asya’da olmak \u00fczere daralmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Georgieva, IMF’nin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tedarik zincirleri \u00fczerindeki yava\u015f ilerleyen etkisini dikkatle takip etti\u011fini, g\u00fcbrenin halihaz\u0131rda y\u00fczde 30 ila y\u00fczde 40 daha pahal\u0131 hale geldi\u011fini ve bunun g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 3 ila y\u00fczde 6 oran\u0131nda art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rler de etkilenebilir.<\/p>\n
“Vurgulamak istedi\u011fim \u015fey, bunun ger\u00e7ekten ciddi oldu\u011fu,” diyen Georgieva, bir\u00e7ok politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n hala krizin birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde sona erecekmi\u015f gibi davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve t\u00fcketiciler ile i\u015fletmeler \u00fczerindeki etkiyi azaltmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nlemler ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun da petrol talebini y\u00fcksek tuttu\u011funu belirterek endi\u015felerini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
“Ate\u015fe benzin d\u00f6kmeyin,” dedi. “Bu odadaki herkes biliyor ki, arz\u0131n\u0131z daral\u0131rsa, talebiniz de onu takip etmek zorundad\u0131r.”<\/p>\n
#IMFUyar\u0131s\u0131 #OrtaDo\u011fuSava\u015f\u0131 #K\u00fcreselEkonomi #PetrolFiyatlar\u0131 #Enflasyon #EkonomikKriz #TedarikZinciri #G\u0131daFiyatlar\u0131 #KristalinaGeorgieva #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
WASHINGTON, 4 May\u0131s (Reuters) – Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, enflasyonun halihaz\u0131rda y\u00fckseli\u015fte oldu\u011funu ve Orta Do\u011fu’daki sava\u015f\u0131n 2027’ye kadar s\u00fcrmesi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 125 dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 halinde k\u00fcresel ekonominin “\u00e7ok daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir sonu\u00e7la” kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131. IMF Genel Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Kristalina Georgieva, sava\u015f\u0131n devam etmesinin, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17992","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17992"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17992\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17992"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17992"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17992"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}