Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerdeki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. M\u00fczakereler boyunca her iki taraf\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, her bir taraf\u0131n elinde tuttu\u011funa inand\u0131\u011f\u0131 kartlardan kaynaklanan, a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 neredeyse imkans\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bo\u015fluklara i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130ran’\u0131n uzla\u015fmaz tutumunu bir kez daha yans\u0131tan son 14 maddelik \u00f6nerisi \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yeni bir \u015fiddet turu neredeyse ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran i\u00e7in zaman farkl\u0131 i\u015fliyor. Tahran, bo\u011fazlar\u0131 kapatma y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki s\u00fcrpriz hamlesinin d\u00fcnyay\u0131 sarst\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri’ni \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yor. Pakistan’daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran, Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ve \u0130srail’in elde etti\u011fi taktiksel ba\u015far\u0131lara ra\u011fmen, ABD’nin stratejik bir ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecek \u00f6nemli kartlara sahip oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yor. Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta bir pazarl\u0131k kozu olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, n\u00fckleer mesele kadar \u00f6nemli stratejik bir g\u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7arpan\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Kapanman\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, ABD m\u00fcttefiki K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin ekonomilerine ve \u0130ran’\u0131n kendisine verilen anl\u0131k zararla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil. Bunlar, \u00f6zellikle Avrupa ve Asya olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcresel ekonomiye yay\u0131l\u0131yor; bu b\u00f6lgeler haftalar i\u00e7inde ciddi bir havac\u0131l\u0131k yak\u0131t\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilir, bu da havac\u0131l\u0131k, hava kargosu, lojistik ve turizm \u00fczerinde dramatik etkiler yaratabilir. Do\u011fal gaz sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn de b\u00fcy\u00fck zarar g\u00f6rmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’\u0131 cezaland\u0131rmak ve ekonomisini \u00e7\u00f6kertmek amac\u0131yla uygulanan ABD deniz ablukas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, bo\u011fazlar neredeyse tamamen kapal\u0131 durumda ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck trafik sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %5’i kadar. \u0130ran’\u0131n elinde bir ba\u015fka kart daha var: ABD’nin kendi topraklar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir kara sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 durumunda Bab el-Mandeb’i kapatmak.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n ayakta kalma g\u00fcc\u00fc, uzun ve aktif kara s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131ndan, Rusya ve \u00c7in taraf\u0131ndan desteklenen aktif bir g\u00f6lge filodan, deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 deldi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lan d\u00fczinelerce tankerden, Pakistan taraf\u0131ndan tahsis edilen kara yollar\u0131ndan ve petrol\u00fc trenle \u00c7in’e ta\u015f\u0131ma planlar\u0131ndan geliyor. Ayn\u0131 derecede \u00f6nemli olan ise diktat\u00f6rl\u00fcklere \u00f6zg\u00fc bir ayr\u0131cal\u0131k: k\u00f6t\u00fc ekonomik durumla ilgili her t\u00fcrl\u00fc i\u00e7 ele\u015ftiriyi \u015fiddetle bast\u0131rmak.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ayr\u0131ca Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri’ndeki siyasi takvimden, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump \u00fczerindeki sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki yo\u011fun bask\u0131dan, 1973 Sava\u015f Yetkileri Karar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki i\u00e7 tart\u0131\u015fmalardan ve y\u00f6netimin savunma b\u00fct\u00e7esini 1,45 trilyon dolar art\u0131rma talebinden de haberdar.<\/p>\n
Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ise ekonomik \u015fokun sonunda \u0130ran’\u0131 dize getirece\u011fine inan\u0131yor. Washington, \u0130ran’\u0131n petrol sahalar\u0131na geri d\u00f6n\u00fclmez zarar verebilecek petrol depolama sorununa, g\u00fcnl\u00fck 500 milyon dolarl\u0131k ekonomik kayba, \u00e7elik ve petrokimya end\u00fcstrilerine verilen ciddi zarara, f\u0131rlayan enflasyon ve i\u015fsizli\u011fe ve 250 milyar dolar olarak tahmin edilen sava\u015f zarar\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Trump’\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne g\u00f6re, t\u00fcm bunlar kendisini daha \u00f6nce yapmas\u0131 gereken \u015feyi yapmaya zorlamadan, yani hedefleri ve zaman\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir kara i\u015fgali olmaks\u0131z\u0131n, arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 teslimiyet anla\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6ylece, Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri zaman\u0131n kendi lehine oldu\u011funa inan\u0131rken, \u0130ran tam tersine inan\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yak\u0131nda test edilecek bir ba\u015fka teori ise, \u0130ran liderli\u011fi i\u00e7indeki bir b\u00f6l\u00fcnmenin siyasi bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 engelleyip engellemedi\u011fi. Washington’da Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkian, Abbas Ara\u011f\u00e7i ve Muhammed Bak\u0131r Kalibaf \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 kamp\u0131n \u00fcyeleri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Onlar\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ise M\u00fccteba Hamenei ve Ahmed Vahidi ile ili\u015fkilendirilen sertlik yanl\u0131s\u0131 ‘d\u00fcn\u00fcn adamlar\u0131’ bulunuyor. Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri, sertlik yanl\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n, \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer mesele ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz konusunda geri ad\u0131m atmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren bir anla\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Trump’\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130ran meydan okumaya devam ederse, orta bir yol se\u00e7ece\u011fi varsay\u0131labilir: enerji tesislerini yok etme tehditlerini uygulamamak, ancak deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak, sertlik yanl\u0131s\u0131 liderlere y\u00f6nelik hedefli suikastlar d\u00fczenlemek ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz’\u00fcn kapanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan \u0130ran’\u0131n ‘sivrisinek’ filosunu yok etmek. Bu konsept olduk\u00e7a \u015f\u00fcpheli. \u0130ran liderli\u011findeki kamuya a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00f6l\u00fcnme, ABD taraf\u0131nda kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve belirsizlik yaratmak ve birka\u00e7 hafta daha kazanmak amac\u0131yla m\u00fczakere taktiklerinin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Her hal\u00fckarda, ger\u00e7ek bir b\u00f6l\u00fcnme olsa bile, n\u00fckleer mesele ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz konusunda Trump ile bir teslimiyet anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalayan el h\u0131zla kesilecektir.<\/p>\n
Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ve \u0130srail i\u00e7in zaman daral\u0131yor. \u0130ran, askeri olarak y\u0131pranm\u0131\u015f olsa da, askeri ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 diplomatik bir ba\u015far\u0131ya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrebilir. Trump, \u00f6zg\u00fcr d\u00fcnyan\u0131n lideri olarak, uzun zaman \u00f6nce yapmas\u0131 gerekeni tamamlamal\u0131: Hark Adas\u0131’n\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irmek ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 zorla a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kara operasyonu. Bu ba\u015far\u0131yla tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130ran \u0130slamabad’a s\u00fcr\u00fcnerek gelecek ve g\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fc uranyumu bizzat Trump’a teslim edecektir.<\/p>\n
Dr. Haim Golovenzits, Orta Do\u011fu uzman\u0131 ve yorumcusudur.<\/p>\n
#\u0130ran #ABD #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #N\u00fckleerAnla\u015fma #Diplomasi #Ekonomi #Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar #DonaldTrump #Ortado\u011fu #Jeopolitik<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerdeki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. M\u00fczakereler boyunca her iki taraf\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, her bir taraf\u0131n elinde tuttu\u011funa inand\u0131\u011f\u0131 kartlardan kaynaklanan, a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 neredeyse imkans\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bo\u015fluklara i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130ran’\u0131n uzla\u015fmaz tutumunu bir kez daha yans\u0131tan son 14 maddelik \u00f6nerisi \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yeni bir \u015fiddet turu neredeyse ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u0130ran i\u00e7in zaman farkl\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17278,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17277","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17277"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17277\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/17278"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17277"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17277"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17277"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}