The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing daily updates to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The updates focus on US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran and the Axis of Resistance\u2019s response to the strikes. The updates cover events from the past 24-hour period.
\nNOTE: ISW-CTP will continue posting morning social media threads on an as-needed basis starting April 28, 2026, for the duration of the ceasefire. We will continue providing long-form analysis on the state of the Iran War in our daily Iran Update Special Reports.
\nUS President Donald Trump stated that he is \u201cnot satisfied\u201d with Iran\u2019s latest proposal. Trump\u2019s dissatisfaction with Iran\u2019s latest proposal reflects continued Iranian inflexibility on key issues, such as the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz.
\nIran is exploiting the current ceasefire to try to reconstitute its missile and drone capabilities ahead of a potential resumption of conflict. Western media reported that Iran has made attempts to regain access to weapons and missile launchers that it hid underground or were buried under debris from US and Israeli airstrikes. Iran would likely use these launchers to restart its attack campaign against US interests, Israel, and other regional countries in the event of a resumption of conflict.
\nIranian media and officials are attempting to deflect responsibility for Iran\u2019s dire economic conditions by attributing these conditions to US military and economic pressure. The US naval blockade and sanctions are certainly applying economic pressure on Iran, but the regime\u2019s historical mismanagement of the economy, corruption, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)\u2019s dominance over economic institutions have played a major role in deteriorating the Iranian economy.
\nToplines
\nUS President Donald Trump stated that he is \u201cnot satisfied\u201d with Iran\u2019s latest proposal.[1] Iranian media reported on May 1 that Iran submitted a new proposal to the United States through Pakistani mediators on April 30.[2] An unspecified regional source told Axios on May 1 that Iran delivered its response to the United States\u2019 amendments to Iran\u2019s previous proposal.[3] The source stated that US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff had sent amendments to Iran on April 27 that called on Iran to reinsert nuclear issues into the draft proposal and avoid moving enriched uranium from bombed facilities or resuming activity at those sites during negotiations.[4] Iran\u2019s previous proposal had sought to postpone US-Iran negotiations about nuclear issues to a later date.[5] Trump\u2019s dissatisfaction with Iran\u2019s latest proposal reflects continued Iranian inflexibility on key issues, such as the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. The Wall Street Journal reported on May 1 that Iran\u2019s latest proposal calls for discussing \u201cTehran\u2019s conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz at the same time as US guarantees to end its attacks and unwind its blockade of Iranian ports.\u201d[6] The Wall Street Journal noted that Iran had previously made the removal of the US blockade a precondition for talks.[7] A Wall Street Journal reporter separately stated that Iran\u2019s proposal \u201cstill puts nuclear [issues] in later stages of talks\u201d and \u201crules out missile negotiations.\u201d[8] Iranian officials have continued to reiterate that the nuclear file is \u201cclosed\u201d and not subject to negotiations.[9] First Deputy Parliament Speaker Ali Nikzad stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its previous state and framed both the strait and nuclear advancements as Iranian \u201crights.\u201d[10] Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei\u2019s Telegram channel separately framed Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz as a core pillar of Iran\u2019s regional strategy, which suggests that the regime has not softened its position on the Strait of Hormuz.[11]
\nIran is exploiting the current ceasefire to try to reconstitute its missile and drone capabilities ahead of a potential resumption of conflict. An unspecified US official and two people familiar with the matter told NBC News on May 1 that Iran is trying to recover weapons that it hid underground or were buried under debris from US and Israeli airstrikes.[12] CNN previously reported on April 14 that satellite imagery showed that Iran was clearing debris at missile base entrances to regain access to missile launchers.[13] Iran would likely use these launchers to restart its attack campaign against US interests, Israel, and other regional countries in the event of a resumption of conflict.
\nTwo unspecified senior Iranian sources separately told Reuters on May 1 that Iran has activated air defenses and plans to conduct a \u201cwide\u201d response if attacked.[14] The officials stated that Iran assesses that the United States may conduct \u201cshort, intensive\u201d strikes followed by Israeli action.[15] Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media reported on April 30 that Iranian air defenses activated across multiple areas of Tehran Province to counter small drones and reconnaissance drones.[16] US and Israeli combined strikes have significantly degraded Iran\u2019s air defense capabilities during the war.[17]
\nIranian media and officials are attempting to deflect responsibility for Iran\u2019s dire economic conditions by attributing these conditions to US military and economic pressure. An Iranian media outlet criticized what it called a coordinated psychological campaign by anti\u2011regime media to portray Iran as facing socio\u2011economic collapse, political deadlock, and the threat of renewed protests as part of a broader US information operation against Iran.[18] The outlet\u2019s criticism followed a report from anti-regime media that the Supreme National Security Council recently met to discuss the potential for protests triggered by Iran\u2019s poor economic conditions.[19] This report came as Iran\u2019s currency plunged to a record low of roughly 1.8 million rials to one US dollar on April 29.[20] Iranian officials continue to blame the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and additional US sanctions for Iran\u2019s poor economic conditions. The blockade and US sanctions are certainly applying economic pressure on Iran, but the regime\u2019s historical mismanagement of the economy, corruption, and the IRGC\u2019s dominance over economic institutions have played a major role in deteriorating the Iranian economy. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and President Masoud Pezeshkian have publicly argued in recent days that US actions are constricting Iran\u2019s economy.[21] Mojtaba argued on April 30 that Iran\u2019s \u201cmanagement\u201d of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, presumably including the extraction of tolls from vessels that transit through the strait, is necessary to bolster the Iranian economy and enhance regional stability.[22] The US Treasury Department warned on May 1 that it could sanction vessels that pay tolls to Iran to transit through the strait.[23] Iranian leadership under IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi appears to be dismissing concerns raised by \u201cpragmatist\u201d regime officials about the state of the Iranian economy.[24] Vahidi appears to view maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz and retaining Iran\u2019s nuclear program as necessary for Iran\u2019s long-term interests, even at the cost of foregoing short\u2011term economic relief through an agreement with the United States.
\nMaritime Development
\nUS Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on May 1 that US forces have directed 45 vessels to turn around or return to port since the start of the US blockade on Iranian ports.[25]
\nUS and Israeli Air Campaign
\nNothing significant to report.
\nIranian Internal Dynamics
\nThe US Treasury Department designated Iranian entities involved in sanctions evasion on May 1 as part of the broader US economic pressure campaign against Iran.[26] The US Treasury Department designated three Iranian banking networks and their associated front companies for their involvement in Iranian sanctions evasion.[27] The US Treasury Department noted that these entities conduct tens of billions of US dollars\u2019 worth of trade annually within Iran\u2019s \u201cshadow banking\u201d network.[28] These designations follow the US Treasury Department\u2019s designation of 35 entities and individuals involved in Iran\u2019s shadow banking network on April 28.[29] The United States has also targeted Iran\u2019s cryptocurrency sector, which Iran also uses to evade US sanctions. The US Treasury Department froze $344 million (USD) in cryptocurrency linked to Iran on April 29.[30] A US official told CNN that the Central Bank of Iran uses digital assets to obfuscate its involvement in cross-border transactions.[31] Reuters reported on May 1 that Iran\u2019s largest cryptocurrency exchange company, Nobitex, has processed between tens and hundreds of millions of dollars in transactions linked to the Central Bank of Iran and the IRGC.[32]
\nIsraeli Campaign Against Hezbollah and Hezbollah Response
\nHezbollah has continued to target Israeli forces and military assets using drones, including first-person view (FPV) drones.[33] Hezbollah claimed that it used drones in eight of its twelve attacks targeting Israeli forces since ISW-CTP \u2018s last data cutoff on April 30.[34] Hezbollah claimed that it used FPV drones in four of its drone attacks, all of which targeted Israeli forces and vehicles in southern Lebanon.[35] An Israeli journalist reported that a Hezbollah FPV drone impacted near Misgav Am, northern Israel, on May 1, injuring two individuals.[36] Hezbollah has increasingly employed FPV drones in its attacks against Israeli targets since April 22 (see graphic below).[37] The Wall Street Journal reported on April 30 that Hezbollah began to employ FPV drones in attacks against Israeli targets as early as June 2024 but stopped using these drones after the start of the Fall 2024 conflict.[38] An Israeli reservist operating in southern Lebanon told the Wall Street Journal on April 30 that Hezbollah flies FPV drones near Israeli forces at least 10 times per day.[39] A senior Hezbollah official told the New York Times on April 30 that FPV drones have made Israeli forces \u201ceasy targets.\u201d[40] Hezbollah\u2019s Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc stated on May 1 that Hezbollah is conducting attacks to prevent the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from establishing a security zone in southern Lebanon.[41] The bloc added that Hezbollah seeks to create a \u201cnew equation\u201d in Lebanon that prevents the IDF from conducting operations \u201cwithout a painful retaliatory response\u201d to increase Hezbollah\u2019s deterrence against Israel.[42]
\nThe IDF has continued to take steps to counter and mitigate the threat of Hezbollah FPV drones. Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon told the Wall Street Journal on April 30 that Israeli forces are \u201cimprovising solutions\u201d to combat Hezbollah FPV drones, including covering military equipment and outposts with nets to trap the drones.[43] Israeli media reported on May 1 that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) is assisting Israeli ground forces in southern Lebanon by deploying mobile radars to detect FPV drones.[44] The IAF has shot down at least 27 FPV drones as of May 1 using Israel\u2019s short-range Iron Dome air defense system, according to Israeli media.[45] Israeli media also reported on May 1 that the IDF is experimenting with \u201cvarious industrial systems\u201d to intercept FPV drones.[46] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently stated that he ordered the formation of a \u201cspecial project\u201d to counter the FPV drone threat but noted that \u201cit will take time\u201d to counter this threat.[47] The Israeli Defense Ministry similarly called for proposals to identify ways to combat the threat of fiber-optic FPV drones.[48] Hezbollah has previously posted footage of Hezbollah fighters operating fiber-optic FPV drones, which are immune to jamming.[49] An Israeli military official told the New York Times on April 30 that Hezbollah\u2019s fiber-optic drones have an operational range of 15 to 20 kilometers.[50]
\nThe IDF announced that it conducted airstrikes targeting at least 40 Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon overnight between April 30 and May 1.[51] This is the highest number of IDF-confirmed airstrikes in Lebanon in a 24-hour period since the ceasefire went into effect on April 16. The IDF reported that it struck Hezbollah command headquarters, sites used by Hezbollah to plan and stage attacks against Israeli forces, and other military infrastructure in southern Lebanon.[52] The IDF warned that it will continue to target any threats to Israeli forces and civilians. [53]
\nOther Axis of Resistance Response
\nUnited Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that seven unidentified armed individuals in a skiff approached a bulk carrier 92 nautical miles southwest of al Mukalla, Yemen, on May 1.[54] No actor has claimed responsibility for this incident at the time of this writing.
\n#IranUpdate #USIranRelations #StraitOfHormuz #NuclearProgram #MiddleEastConflict #Hezbollah #DroneWarfare #EconomicSanctions #IranCeasefire #RegionalSecurity<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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