{"id":13231,"date":"2026-04-30T07:19:35","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T03:49:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/?p=13231"},"modified":"2026-04-30T07:19:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T03:49:35","slug":"dunya-bankasi-orta-dogudaki-savas-2022den-bu-yana-en-buyuk-enerji-fiyat-artisini-tetikleyecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/?p=13231&lang=tr","title":{"rendered":"D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131: Orta Do\u011fu’daki Sava\u015f, 2022’den Bu Yana En B\u00fcy\u00fck Enerji Fiyat Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Tetikleyecek"},"content":{"rendered":"
D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131: Orta Do\u011fu’daki Sava\u015f, 2022’den Bu Yana En B\u00fcy\u00fck Enerji Fiyat Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Tetikleyecek<\/title><\/p>\n<article>\n<h1>D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131: Orta Do\u011fu’daki Sava\u015f, 2022’den Bu Yana En B\u00fcy\u00fck Enerji Fiyat Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Tetikleyecek<\/h1>\n<p>K\u00fcresel krizin merkez \u00fcss\u00fc, tarihsel olarak d\u00fcnya deniz yoluyla ham petrol ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 35’ini kar\u015f\u0131layan kritik bir deniz ge\u00e7idi olan <strong>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131<\/strong>‘nda yer almaktad\u0131r. K\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 24 artarak Rusya’n\u0131n 2022’deki Ukrayna i\u015fgalinden bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 Grubu’nun son <a href=\"#emtia-piyasalari-gorunumu\" title=\"Emtia Piyasalar\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc\">Emtia Piyasalar\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/a>‘ne g\u00f6re, devam eden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n 2026’da genel emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 16’l\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu art\u0131\u015f, temel end\u00fcstriyel metallerdeki rekor y\u00fcksek fiyatlar ve k\u00fcresel petrol ile g\u00fcbre tedarik zincirlerindeki ciddi aksakl\u0131klar taraf\u0131ndan tetiklenerek, daha geni\u015f emtia piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong>enflasyonist bir ortam<\/strong> yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu’daki enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ve deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n, k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131nda ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 milyon varillik bir azalmaya yol a\u00e7arak, kay\u0131tlardaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck <strong>petrol arz \u015fokunu<\/strong> tetikledi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n<p>Temel tahminler, bu ciddi aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n May\u0131s ay\u0131nda sona erece\u011fini ve deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 2026 sonuna kadar kademeli olarak sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6nmesini sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsay\u0131yor. Bu senaryoya g\u00f6re, Brent ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn bu y\u0131l varil ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama 86 ABD dolar\u0131 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu, 2025’teki 69 ABD dolar\u0131ndan keskin bir art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<h2><a id=\"petrol-fiyatlari-ve-gubre\">Petrol Fiyatlar\u0131 ve G\u0131da G\u00fcvenli\u011fi Tehdidi<\/a><\/h2>\n<p>D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 raporunun \u00f6zel bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde, jeopolitik riskin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 da ortaya kondu. Jeopolitik bir arz \u015fokunun tetikledi\u011fi y\u00fczde 10’luk bir petrol fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131, tipik olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131l sonra do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 7, g\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 5’in \u00fczerinde art\u0131r\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, \u00fcre fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 60’l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisiyle 2026’da genel g\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 31 artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler D\u00fcnya G\u0131da Program\u0131, g\u00fcbre eri\u015filebilirli\u011findeki bu ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn gelecekteki mahsul verimlerini tehdit etti\u011fini ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzamas\u0131 halinde bu y\u0131l 45 milyona kadar daha fazla insan\u0131 <strong>akut g\u0131da g\u00fcvensizli\u011fine<\/strong> itebilece\u011fi konusunda uyar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<h2><a id=\"endustriyel-tedarik-zincirleri\">End\u00fcstriyel Tedarik Zincirleri ve De\u011ferli Metaller<\/a><\/h2>\n<p>End\u00fcstriyel tedarik zincirleri de benzer maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Al\u00fcminyum, bak\u0131r ve kalay gibi baz metallerin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, veri merkezleri, elektrikli ara\u00e7lar ve yenilenebilir enerji \u015febekelerinden gelen yap\u0131sal talebin k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 arzla \u00e7arp\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu arada, jeopolitik belirsizli\u011fin g\u00fcvenli liman yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesiyle de\u011ferli metallerin 2026’da ortalama y\u00fczde 42 artmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<h2><a id=\"bae-opec-cikis\">BAE OPEC’ten Ayr\u0131l\u0131yor: B\u00f6lgesel \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n G\u00f6lgesinde Yeni Bir D\u00f6nem<\/a><\/h2>\n<p>K\u00f6rfez’deki lojistik fel\u00e7, b\u00f6lgenin \u00f6nde gelen \u00fcreticileri aras\u0131ndaki jeopolitik ittifaklar\u0131n par\u00e7alanmas\u0131yla daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fiyor. Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri (BAE), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc (28 Nisan) yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamayla, yakla\u015f\u0131k altm\u0131\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fcyeli\u011fini sona erdirerek 1 May\u0131s’ta OPEC ve OPEC+’dan resmen ayr\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu.<\/p>\n<p>BAE’nin g\u00fcnl\u00fck 4 milyon varili a\u015fan \u00fcretim kapasitesine sahip olmas\u0131na ve OPEC kotalar\u0131n\u0131n kendisini 3 milyon varille s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen rahats\u0131zl\u0131k duymas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n piyasa \u00fczerindeki etkisi b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131yor. ABD Enerji Bilgi \u0130daresi, K\u00f6rfez \u00fcreticilerinin Nisan ay\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 9,1 milyon varil petrol\u00fc, sadece H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndan g\u00fcvenli bir \u015fekilde sevkiyat yapamad\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fcretimden \u00e7ekti\u011fini tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 Grubu Ba\u015f Ekonomisti Indermit Gill, <strong>“Sava\u015f, k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi k\u00fcm\u00fclatif dalgalar halinde vuruyor: \u00f6nce daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131, ard\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 ve son olarak, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltecek ve borcu daha da pahal\u0131 hale getirecek daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon yoluyla”<\/strong> dedi.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, kritik petrol ve gaz tesislerinin daha fazla zarar g\u00f6rmesi halinde temel tahminlerin h\u0131zla k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015febilece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131. \u0130hracat hacimlerinin yava\u015f toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir senaryoda, Brent petrol bu y\u0131l varil ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama 115 ABD dolar\u0131 olabilir ve geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerdeki enflasyonu y\u00fczde 5,8’e \u00e7\u0131karabilir \u2013 bu seviye, son on y\u0131lda sadece 2022’de a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. K\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 zaten inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ederken, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri <strong>s\u0131k\u0131 mali disiplini<\/strong> s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7a\u011f\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<\/article>\n<footer>\n<p>#EnerjiKrizi #OrtaDo\u011fuSava\u015f\u0131 #PetrolFiyatlar\u0131 #D\u00fcnyaBankas\u0131 #Enflasyon #G\u0131daG\u00fcvenli\u011fi #H\u00fcrm\u00fczBo\u011faz\u0131 #OPEC #BAE #K\u00fcreselEkonomi<\/p>\n<\/footer>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131: Orta Do\u011fu’daki Sava\u015f, 2022’den Bu Yana En B\u00fcy\u00fck Enerji Fiyat Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Tetikleyecek D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131: Orta Do\u011fu’daki Sava\u015f, 2022’den Bu Yana En B\u00fcy\u00fck Enerji Fiyat Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Tetikleyecek K\u00fcresel krizin merkez \u00fcss\u00fc, tarihsel olarak d\u00fcnya deniz yoluyla ham petrol ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 35’ini kar\u015f\u0131layan kritik bir deniz ge\u00e7idi olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131‘nda yer almaktad\u0131r. K\u00fcresel enerji […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":13232,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13231","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13231\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13232"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}