{"id":12263,"date":"2026-04-29T05:30:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T02:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/?p=12263"},"modified":"2026-04-29T05:30:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T02:00:11","slug":"rusyanin-zor-durumdaki-komur-sektorune-orta-dogu-krizi-bile-care-olamadi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/?p=12263&lang=tr","title":{"rendered":"Rusya’n\u0131n Zor Durumdaki K\u00f6m\u00fcr Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne Orta Do\u011fu Krizi Bile \u00c7are Olamad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rusya’n\u0131n Zor Durumdaki K\u00f6m\u00fcr Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne Orta Do\u011fu Krizi Bile \u00c7are Olamad\u0131<\/h1>\n

ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131yla tetiklenen k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, Rusya’n\u0131n k\u00f6m\u00fcr end\u00fcstrisindeki derinle\u015fen krizi hafifletmek i\u00e7in yetersiz kald\u0131. Analistler ve yetkililer, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn bir y\u0131l daha a\u011f\u0131r kay\u0131plarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Washington ve Tahran’\u0131n diplomasi ile yenilenen tehditler aras\u0131nda gidip geldi\u011fi son haftalarda, g\u00f6sterge Brent ham petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti. Bu fiyat, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar s\u0131ras\u0131ndaki zirvelerden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterse de, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 dolarl\u0131k seviyelerin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir g\u00fczergah olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki ate\u015fkese “s\u00fcresiz” uzataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte fiilen kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Yakla\u015f\u0131k 150.000 ki\u015fiye istihdam sa\u011flayan Rusya’n\u0131n k\u00f6m\u00fcr sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, 2023’ten sonra k\u00fcresel k\u00f6m\u00fcr fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sabitlenmesi, rekabetin yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 ve Bat\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli ihracat pazarlar\u0131na eri\u015fimi k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131 nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. K\u00f6m\u00fcr \u015firketleri, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda toplamda 408 milyar ruble (5,47 milyar dolar) zarar bildirdi ve firmalar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %67’si zararla faaliyet g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u00f6zellikle Sibirya’n\u0131n k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcreten Kemerovo b\u00f6lgesini sert vurdu ve kamu hizmetlerine y\u0131llarca yap\u0131lan yetersiz yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan daha geni\u015f bir sosyo-ekonomik krizi derinle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n

Orta Do\u011fu Krizi ve K\u00f6m\u00fcr Talebi<\/h2>\n

\u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta, artan petrol ve gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle Asya’da Rus k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcne olan talebi art\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenebilirdi. Ancak Rus end\u00fcstri y\u00f6neticileri ve yetkilileri, Orta Do\u011fu krizinin sekt\u00f6r\u00fc toparlanma yoluna sokmak i\u00e7in yetersiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

Enerji ve Temiz Hava Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi (CREA) hesaplamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re, Rusya’n\u0131n Mart ay\u0131nda enerji ihracat\u0131ndan elde etti\u011fi yakla\u015f\u0131k 24 milyar dolarl\u0131k gelirin (iki y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi), sadece %5,5’i k\u00f6m\u00fcrden geldi. Mart ay\u0131nda k\u00f6m\u00fcr ihracat gelirleri ayl\u0131k bazda %22 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterse de, gelirlerin %94 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 petrol\u00fcn \u00e7ok gerisinde kald\u0131. Analistler, bu art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n sekt\u00f6rdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirmek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok m\u00fctevaz\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

Enerji Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Dmitry Islamov, Orta Do\u011fu krizinin k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcreticileri \u00fczerinde “kayda de\u011fer bir etkisi” olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve herhangi bir “sistematik” fiyat de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin 2026 sonu veya 2027’den \u00f6nce pek olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Enerji krizinin ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ay sonra, 24 Mart’ta konu\u015fan Islamov, bu y\u0131l sanayi kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n 575 milyar rubleye (7,71 milyar dolar) kadar geni\u015fleyebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n

Moskova merkezli dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k \u015firketi NEFT Research’\u00fcn orta\u011f\u0131 Alexander Kotov da benzer bir tahmin yaparak, sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in 500 milyar ila 550 milyar ruble (6,70 milyar ila 7,37 milyar dolar) aras\u0131nda kay\u0131plar \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Kotov, Orta Do\u011fu’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan elde edilen k\u0131sa vadeli kazan\u0131mlara ra\u011fmen, Rusya’n\u0131n 2026’daki k\u00f6m\u00fcr ihracat\u0131n\u0131n 2025 seviyelerine g\u00f6re %5 ila %8 d\u00fc\u015ferek 195 milyon ila 200 milyon metrik ton aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin beklendi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n

K\u00f6m\u00fcr Piyasas\u0131ndaki Rekabet ve Fiyatlar<\/h2>\n

Bunun bir nedeni, k\u00f6m\u00fcr piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n petrol ve gaz piyasalar\u0131na g\u00f6re daha az k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 olmas\u0131; daha bol arz ve daha az \u00fclkenin sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in rekabet etmesidir. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, \u00fclkenin enerji \u00fcretiminde kullan\u0131lan ana ihracat kalitesi olan Rus termal k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi, ancak petrol ve gaza g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha az keskin bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

Fiyat Endeksleri Merkezi’ne g\u00f6re, Rusya’n\u0131n Uzak Do\u011fu limanlar\u0131ndan, yani Asya pazarlar\u0131na ana ge\u00e7i\u015f kap\u0131s\u0131ndan sevk edilen k\u00f6m\u00fcr fiyatlar\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ton ba\u015f\u0131na 79 dolardan 20 Mart itibar\u0131yla ton ba\u015f\u0131na 97 dolara \u00e7\u0131karak yakla\u015f\u0131k %23 artt\u0131. NEFT Research, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finden d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar Rus k\u00f6m\u00fcr ihracat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n var\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ton ba\u015f\u0131na 69,60 ila 82,30 dolar aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ediyor \u2014 bu rakamlar, Rus k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn ton ba\u015f\u0131na 150 dolardan fazla sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022 zirvesinin hala \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yapmak gerekirse, Rusya’n\u0131n Urallar ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn fiyat\u0131 \u015eubat ay\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama 56,60 dolardan Mart ay\u0131nda 94,50 dolara y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k %73’l\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Bu fark, Rus k\u00f6m\u00fcr ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00fclkenin petrol ve gaz \u00fcreticilerine k\u0131yasla, \u00f6zellikle Asya’da daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir rekabetle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funu yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u00fcketicilerinden baz\u0131lar\u0131 \u2014 \u00c7in, Hindistan ve Endonezya \u2014 ayn\u0131 zamanda en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcreticileri aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor ve hepsi Rusya’n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde s\u0131ralan\u0131yor. \u00c7in, yerel \u00fcreticileri desteklemek amac\u0131yla 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda Rus k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcne ithalat vergilerini yeniden uygulamaya koyarken, Hindistan da Rus sevkiyatlar\u0131na tarife uyguluyor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, Avustralya ve Endonezya’daki \u00fcreticiler, Hindistan ve \u00c7in’e sat\u0131\u015f yaparken daha k\u0131sa nakliye rotalar\u0131 ve daha az ticaret engeli avantaj\u0131ndan yararlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Artan Maliyetler ve D\u00fc\u015fen Karl\u0131l\u0131k<\/h2>\n

Artan lojistik maliyetleri de bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu krizi, nakliye talebini ve deniz yak\u0131t\u0131 maliyetlerini art\u0131rd\u0131, bir\u00e7ok durumda y\u00fcksek k\u00f6m\u00fcr fiyatlar\u0131ndan elde edilen kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 sildi. Fiyat Endeksleri Merkezi’ne g\u00f6re, Rusya’n\u0131n Uzak Do\u011fu’sundan navlun oranlar\u0131 \u015eubat sonu ile Mart sonu aras\u0131nda, var\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak %21 ila %44 aras\u0131nda artt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Baz\u0131 durumlarda, ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar de\u011fi\u015fken navlun maliyetleri nedeniyle sevkiyatlar\u0131 fiyatland\u0131rman\u0131n zorla\u015fmas\u0131 ve k\u00e2rs\u0131z hale gelmesi nedeniyle \u00c7inli al\u0131c\u0131lara tekliflerini geri \u00e7ekti. NEFT Research, \u015eubat ay\u0131nda Uzak Do\u011fu limanlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden Kuzbass k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc sevk eden ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n ton ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 6.424 ruble (86,08 dolar) ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak nakliye ve di\u011fer maliyetlerden sonra ton ba\u015f\u0131na yaln\u0131zca 1.888 ruble (25,30 dolar) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n

Mart ay\u0131nda k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7te bir oran\u0131nda iyile\u015fse de, Kommersant taraf\u0131ndan al\u0131nt\u0131lanan analistler, yaln\u0131zca baz\u0131 do\u011fu ihracat rotalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrekli olarak k\u00e2rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtti \u2014 \u00f6zellikle enerji ithalat\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan G\u00fcney Kore’ye yap\u0131lan sevkiyatlar. Kotov, \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fcretici i\u00e7in k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim maliyetlerini kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in hala \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Finam dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan Alexei Kalachev, y\u00fcksek fiyatlar ve zay\u0131f rublenin bu y\u0131l sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn “krize kay\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131” yava\u015flatabilece\u011fini, ancak “onu krizden \u00e7\u0131karmaya” yetmeyece\u011fini belirtti. Moskova merkezli analist Kirill Rodionov, Telegram’da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, ihracat gelirlerindeki ge\u00e7ici bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n baz\u0131 \u00fcreticilerin vadesi ge\u00e7mi\u015f vergileri ve sigorta primlerini \u00f6demesine olanak sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini, ancak sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak zarar etmeye devam edece\u011fini yazd\u0131. Rodionov ayr\u0131ca, Rusya’n\u0131n k\u00f6m\u00fcr madencili\u011fi merkezi olan Kemerovo b\u00f6lgesindeki k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcretiminin 2026’n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde %7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 46,6 milyon metrik tona geriledi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n

Gelecek G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Temiz Enerjiye Ge\u00e7i\u015f<\/h2>\n

Hem Rus hem de Bat\u0131l\u0131 analistler, mevcut krizin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u00f6m\u00fcr toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesinin olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun yerine Asya’n\u0131n alternatif enerji kaynaklar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fini h\u0131zland\u0131rabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

Ember taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, yenilenebilir enerji 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda 1919’dan bu yana ilk kez d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck elektrik \u00fcretim kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. G\u00fcne\u015f, r\u00fczgar ve hidroelektrik dahil yenilenebilir kaynaklar, k\u00fcresel \u00fcretimin %33,8’ini olu\u015ftururken, k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn pay\u0131 %33 oldu. Hala k\u00f6m\u00fcre b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan \u00c7in ve Hindistan, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00f6m\u00fcrle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan elektrik \u00fcretiminin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndayd\u0131 \u2014 s\u0131ras\u0131yla %1,6 ve %3 oran\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

NEFT Research’e g\u00f6re, \u00c7in ve Hindistan yerel arz\u0131 ve daha fazla k\u00f6m\u00fcrde kendi kendine yeterlili\u011fi \u00f6nceliklendirirken, Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore yenilenebilir ve n\u00fckleer enerjiye ge\u00e7i\u015flerini h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Rus ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc belirsizli\u011fini koruyor. Bu durum, Vietnam ve Filipinler gibi G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya \u00fclkelerini talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ana kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak b\u0131rak\u0131yor, ancak dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k \u015firketi bunun daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerden d\u00fc\u015fen ithalat\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in yeterli olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

Asya odakl\u0131 enerji analisti Julius Cesar Trajano, “K\u00f6m\u00fcr \u015fimdilik kolayca bulunabilen bir tampon olabilir, ancak \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 daha temiz enerjiye ge\u00e7i\u015fi ray\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131karmayacak,” dedi. “Uzun vadede, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 b\u00f6lgenin daha \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmi\u015f bir enerji kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fini tersine \u00e7evirmek yerine peki\u015ftirecektir. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma, h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin neden daha az fosil yak\u0131t istedi\u011finin ger\u00e7ek nedenini vurguluyor: Emisyonlar\u0131 azaltmak de\u011fil, de\u011fi\u015fken bir enerji piyasas\u0131na maruz kalmay\u0131 azaltmak.”<\/p>\n

Hindistan n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde geni\u015fletirken, \u00c7in 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar fosil d\u0131\u015f\u0131 yak\u0131t enerjisi kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karma planlar\u0131n\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak 36 reakt\u00f6r in\u015fa ediyor \u2014 bu, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131n\u0131n toplam\u0131ndan daha fazla. G\u00fcney Kore de n\u00fckleer enerji \u00fcretimini art\u0131r\u0131yor ve Vietnam’daki projeler i\u00e7in finansman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda. Japonya ise 2011 Fuku\u015fima felaketinden sonra n\u00fckleer santralleri kapatan politikalar\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviriyor.<\/p>\n

#RusyaK\u00f6m\u00fcrSekt\u00f6r\u00fc #EnerjiKrizi #OrtaDo\u011fu\u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 #K\u00fcreselEnerji #K\u00f6m\u00fcrPiyasas\u0131 #YenilenebilirEnerji #EkonomikKay\u0131plar #AsyaPazar\u0131 #Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar #FosilYak\u0131tlar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rusya’n\u0131n Zor Durumdaki K\u00f6m\u00fcr Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne Orta Do\u011fu Krizi Bile \u00c7are Olamad\u0131 ABD-\u0130srail’in \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131yla tetiklenen k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, Rusya’n\u0131n k\u00f6m\u00fcr end\u00fcstrisindeki derinle\u015fen krizi hafifletmek i\u00e7in yetersiz kald\u0131. Analistler ve yetkililer, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn bir y\u0131l daha a\u011f\u0131r kay\u0131plarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor. Washington ve Tahran’\u0131n diplomasi ile yenilenen tehditler aras\u0131nda gidip geldi\u011fi son haftalarda, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12264,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12263","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12263"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12263\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12264"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12263"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12263"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12263"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}