Ortado\u011fu’da s\u00fcregelen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, Bat\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ve Siyonist rejimin \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’ne kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve kazan\u0131lmas\u0131 imkans\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir m\u00fccadeleye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Washington ve Kud\u00fcs’teki \u00e7evreler, \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer kapasitesini ortadan kald\u0131rmak, b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131rmak ve hatta siyasi bir de\u011fi\u015fim dayatmak gibi iddial\u0131 hedeflerden bahsetse de, sahadaki ger\u00e7ekler bu hayalleri bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tahran’\u0131n bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zaferin tan\u0131m\u0131 ise \u00e7ok daha derindir: beka ve direni\u015f<\/strong>. Bu asimetri, t\u00fcm \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n seyrini belirliyor. Ba\u015far\u0131 i\u00e7in daha az \u015feye ihtiya\u00e7 duyan taraf\u0131n avantajl\u0131 oldu\u011fu bu t\u00fcr sava\u015flarda, \u0130ran’\u0131n konumu tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131z bir \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck sergiliyor. Zira \u0130ran, varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyi ve d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131n hedeflerine ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemeyi yeterli g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n Askeri dengesizlik inkar edilemez bir ger\u00e7ek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, ABD ve \u0130srail’in “ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc hassasiyet ve eri\u015fim” iddialar\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131n stratejik derinli\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda anlams\u0131z kal\u0131yor. Altyap\u0131y\u0131, liderli\u011fi ve stratejik varl\u0131klar\u0131 hedef alan sald\u0131r\u0131lar, taktiksel ba\u015far\u0131lar gibi sunulsa da, bunlar hi\u00e7bir zaman siyasi bir sonuca d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi. \u0130ran devleti par\u00e7alanmad\u0131, y\u00f6netim sistemi sa\u011flam kald\u0131 ve askeri, b\u00f6lgesel, ideolojik a\u011flar\u0131 i\u015flevini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. N\u00fckleer uzmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere en hassas yetenekleri bile diren\u00e7li oldu\u011funu kan\u0131tlad\u0131.<\/p>\n Bat\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin en b\u00fcy\u00fck yan\u0131lg\u0131s\u0131, Tahran’\u0131n Washington ile ayn\u0131 oyunu oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsaymalar\u0131d\u0131r. Oysa \u0130ran, ABD veya \u0130srail’i do\u011frudan yenmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor. Aksine, onlar\u0131 alt etmeye, hedeflerini karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rmaya ve ilerlemenin maliyetini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez hale getirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu mant\u0131k, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n nas\u0131l geli\u015fti\u011finde a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Sava\u015f alan\u0131, do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7erek deniz yollar\u0131na, enerji piyasalar\u0131na ve b\u00f6lgesel ittifaklara yay\u0131l\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki kesintiler tesad\u00fcfi de\u011fil; k\u00fcresel sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olan stratejik bask\u0131 noktalar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n \u0130ran’\u0131n stratejisi, hakimiyet kurmaktan ziyade d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekmek ve y\u0131pratmakt\u0131r<\/em>. D\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi \u00e7ok maliyetli ve sonu\u00e7land\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7ok karma\u015f\u0131k bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya \u00e7ekebildi\u011fi s\u00fcrece, sava\u015f alan\u0131nda \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011fe ihtiyac\u0131 yoktur.<\/p>\n Sava\u015flar durma noktas\u0131na geldi\u011finde t\u0131rmanma i\u00e7g\u00fcd\u00fcs\u00fc devreye girer: daha fazla bombalama, enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve hatta “sahaya asker indirme”. Ancak \u0130ran pasif bir hedef de\u011fildir. B\u00f6lge genelinde, Suudi Arabistan, Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri, Katar, Kuveyt, Bahreyn, Umman’\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u00dcrd\u00fcn ve Irak’taki hedeflere kar\u015f\u0131 misilleme yapma iste\u011fini zaten g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. \u0130ran’\u0131n enerji sistemlerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar, bu devletlere kar\u015f\u0131 misillemeyi davet ederek \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 geni\u015fletecektir.<\/p>\n Dahas\u0131, ABD’nin \u00f6nemli f\u00fcze stoklar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %45 ila %50’sini, Tomahawk f\u00fcze envanterinin ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %30’unu zaten kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Bu ac\u0131 ger\u00e7ek, t\u0131rmanman\u0131n art\u0131k sadece isteklilikle de\u011fil, kapasiteyle de ilgili oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Daha geni\u015f bir sava\u015fta, ABD’nin ne kadar ileri gidebilece\u011fi de\u011fil, ne kadar\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorusu g\u00fcndeme gelecektir. Sonu\u00e7lar sava\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ecektir; \u0130ran’\u0131n yan\u0131t\u0131, kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerin g\u00fc\u00e7, yak\u0131t ve su sistemlerine y\u00f6nelik s\u00fcrekli sald\u0131r\u0131lar olacak, bu da b\u00f6lgenin baz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yaz aylar\u0131nda artan s\u0131cakl\u0131klarla ya\u015fanmaz hale getirecektir. B\u00fcy\u00fck say\u0131da insan yerinden edilme riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n En \u00f6nemlisi, t\u0131rmanma, as\u0131l meseleyi g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131rmaktad\u0131r: sorun, g\u00fc\u00e7 eksikli\u011fi de\u011fil, g\u00fcc\u00fcn ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir \u015fekilde ula\u015fabilece\u011fi siyasi bir hedefin olmamas\u0131d\u0131r. ABD ve \u0130srail’in nihai hedeflerinde tam olarak uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemesi de bu sorunu derinle\u015ftirmektedir. \u0130srail’in duru\u015fu, \u0130ran sisteminin derin, muhtemelen geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclemez bir \u015fekilde zay\u0131flat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, hatta do\u011frudan rejim \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc hedefleyen maksimalist sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 takip etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, ABD ise zorlama, \u00e7evreleme ve m\u00fczakere aras\u0131nda gidip gelmektedir.<\/p>\n Bunlar sadece vurgu farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 de\u011fil, strateji farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131d\u0131r. Ortak bir zafer tan\u0131m\u0131 olmadan y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen sava\u015flar nadiren zaferle sonu\u00e7lan\u0131r. Bunun yerine, stratejik yak\u0131nla\u015fma olmaks\u0131z\u0131n s\u00fcrekli askeri faaliyet \u00fcretirler; s\u00fcrekli hareket, ancak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme do\u011fru \u00e7ok az ilerleme.<\/p>\n Bu art\u0131k kesin bir sonuca do\u011fru ilerleyen bir sava\u015f de\u011fil. Grevlerin ard\u0131ndan duraklamalar, \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ancak \u00f6nleyecek kadar s\u00fcren ate\u015fkesler ve ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nleyecek kadar ilerleyen m\u00fczakerelerle bir d\u00fczene oturan bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma. Bu ate\u015fkesler kendi hikayelerini anlat\u0131yor. Tekrarlanan uzatmalar\u0131 ilerlemeyi de\u011fil, k\u0131s\u0131tlamay\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Zaman, bu anlamda tarafs\u0131z de\u011fil. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma ne kadar uzarsa, k\u00fcresel ekonominin en hassas bask\u0131 noktalar\u0131yla o kadar kesi\u015fiyor. Enerji piyasalar\u0131 gergin, tedarik yollar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda ve rezervler daral\u0131yor. \u0130stikrarl\u0131 yak\u0131t ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 end\u00fcstriler \u2013 havac\u0131l\u0131k, nakliye, imalat \u2013 giderek daha fazla maruz kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta b\u00f6lgesel bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma olarak ba\u015flayan \u015fey, sistemik bir riske d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir aksakl\u0131k bile d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya do\u011fru yay\u0131larak fiyatlar\u0131, tedarik zincirlerini ve siyasi istikrar\u0131 etkileyebilir. \u00c7\u0131kmaz ne kadar uzun s\u00fcrerse, k\u00fcm\u00fclatif gerilim o kadar artar ve daha geni\u015f bir ekonomik \u015foka o kadar yakla\u015f\u0131r\u0131z.<\/p>\n Salt askeri terimlerle, cevap a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r: ABD ve \u0130srail ezici bir \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011fe sahiptir. Ancak sava\u015flar sadece yetenekle de\u011fil, hedeflerin, maliyetlerin ve zaman\u0131n nas\u0131l etkile\u015fime girdi\u011fiyle belirlenir. Bu denklemde, \u0130ran’\u0131n konumu g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr. Ba\u015far\u0131 i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir e\u015fik belirlemi\u015f, uzun s\u00fcreli bask\u0131ya daha y\u00fcksek bir tolerans g\u00f6stermi\u015f ve sava\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde maliyetler dayatma yetene\u011fini kan\u0131tlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. En \u00f6nemlisi, kazanmak zorunda de\u011fildir. Sadece d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131n ama\u00e7lar\u0131na ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemesi yeterlidir. \u015eimdiye kadar tam olarak bunu yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n Bu da bizi orijinal soruya geri getiriyor: ABD ve \u0130srail bu sava\u015f\u0131 kazanabilir mi? E\u011fer kazanmak, \u0130ran’\u0131 boyun e\u011fmeye zorlamak veya stratejik duru\u015funu temelden yeniden \u015fekillendirmek anlam\u0131na geliyorsa, cevaptan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak giderek zorla\u015f\u0131yor: kazanamazlar<\/strong>. Yapabilecekleri tek \u015fey devam etmektir. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 y\u00f6netmek, yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almak ve s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendirmek. Ama bu zafer de\u011fildir. Bu, sadece bir dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k s\u0131nav\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ger\u00e7ek tehlike yenilgi de\u011fil, sadece biraz daha bask\u0131, biraz daha t\u0131rmanma veya biraz daha zaman\u0131n farkl\u0131 bir sonu\u00e7 \u00fcretece\u011fi inanc\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesidir. E\u011fer bu inan\u00e7 yanl\u0131\u015fsa, o zaman bu kazan\u0131lmak \u00fczere olan bir sava\u015f de\u011fildir. Bu, hi\u00e7 kazan\u0131lamayacak bir sava\u015ft\u0131r. Bir “sonsuz sava\u015f”.<\/p>\n #\u0130ranDireni\u015fi #Ortado\u011fu\u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 #Direni\u015fEkseni #SiyonistRejim\u00c7\u0131kmaz\u0131 #ABD\u0130ranSava\u015f\u0131 #BekaStratejisi #K\u00fcreselEkonomi #Kazan\u0131lmazSava\u015f #\u0130slamCumhuriyeti #B\u00f6lgeselG\u00fc\u00e7<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ortado\u011fu’da Kazan\u0131lmas\u0131 M\u00fcmk\u00fcn Olmayan Bir Sava\u015f\u0131n G\u00f6lgesinde: Direni\u015fin Zaferi Yak\u0131n Ortado\u011fu’da s\u00fcregelen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, Bat\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ve Siyonist rejimin \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’ne kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve kazan\u0131lmas\u0131 imkans\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir m\u00fccadeleye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Washington ve Kud\u00fcs’teki \u00e7evreler, \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer kapasitesini ortadan kald\u0131rmak, b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131rmak ve hatta siyasi bir de\u011fi\u015fim dayatmak gibi iddial\u0131 hedeflerden bahsetse de, sahadaki ger\u00e7ekler […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11603,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11602","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11602","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11602"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11602\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11603"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11602"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11602"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11602"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Yanl\u0131\u015f Hesaplar ve Direni\u015fin Stratejisi<\/h2>\n
T\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n S\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 ve ABD’nin Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h2>\n
Hedefsiz Bir Sava\u015f: ABD ve \u0130srail’in \u00c7eli\u015fkileri<\/h2>\n
\u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fczl\u00fck ve Direni\u015fin G\u00fcc\u00fc<\/h2>\n
Avantaj Kimde?<\/h2>\n