E\u011fer ‘g\u00fcc\u00fc elinde bulunduran hakl\u0131d\u0131r’ diyen n\u00fckleer silahl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin hukuksuz sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kontrols\u00fcz bir \u015fekilde yay\u0131l\u0131rsa, orta d\u00fczeydeki \u00fclkelerin ba\u015fka ne se\u00e7ene\u011fi kal\u0131r?<\/p>\n
At\u0131lan her bomba, ele ge\u00e7irilen her gemi ve kan dondurucu yok etme tehdidiyle Donald Trump, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck pazarl\u0131k\u201d bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 reddetme ve bunun yerine gelecekteki \u00f6z savunma i\u00e7in n\u00fckleer silah edinme te\u015fvikini art\u0131r\u0131yor. 28 \u015eubat’taki sava\u015f ilan\u0131n\u0131 hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken Trump, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u2013 ve \u00f6ncelikli olarak n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131n \u2013 \u201cyak\u0131n bir tehdit\u201d olu\u015fturdu\u011funu iddia etti. Ancak \u0130ran n\u00fckleer silahlara sahip de\u011fil. ABD ve \u0130srail ise sahip.<\/p>\n
ABD istihbarat \u015fefleri ve BM m\u00fcfetti\u015fleri, rejimin teknik yeteneklerini geli\u015ftirirken ve siyasi se\u00e7enekleri a\u00e7\u0131k tutarken, en az 2003’te gizli bir plan\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131ndan bu yana n\u00fckleer silah in\u015fa etti\u011fine veya etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair sa\u011flam bir kan\u0131t olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda hemfikir. Ancak Trump’\u0131n bir y\u0131l i\u00e7indeki ikinci provokasyonsuz sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 ve \u0130ran medeniyetini \u201cta\u015f devrine\u201d geri bombalama yemini sonras\u0131nda, bu durumun de\u011fi\u015fmesi \u00e7ok muhtemel.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda \u0130ran’\u0131 y\u00f6neten a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 muhafazakar Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 generallerine atfedilen, n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n gelecekteki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 cayd\u0131rman\u0131n tek kesin yolu oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmak giderek zorla\u015f\u0131yor. ABD ve \u0130srail, diplomatik m\u00fczakerelerin ortas\u0131nda iki kez uyar\u0131 yapmadan sald\u0131rd\u0131. Bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 yap\u0131lsa bile, \u0130ranl\u0131lar her zaman intikam pe\u015finde olan Trump ve Binyamin Netanyahu’ya g\u00fcvenilemeyece\u011fini biliyor. ABD-\u0130srail ekseni, sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u0131llarca s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n
Trump’\u0131n \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 \u201cyok etmeye\u201d odaklanmas\u0131, herhangi bir yanl\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nlendirilmi\u015f ABD Tomahawk seyir f\u00fczesi kadar hedeften sapm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130srail ka\u00e7 bilim insan\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcrse \u00f6ld\u00fcrs\u00fcn, yerli n\u00fckleer bilgi birikimi kolayca bombalanarak yok edilemez. Ve her hal\u00fckarda, Tahran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131 kendi i\u00e7inde in\u015fa etmek i\u00e7in gereken kapasite ve becerileri yeniden olu\u015fturmas\u0131 \u015fart de\u011fil. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan haz\u0131r olarak sat\u0131n alabilir.<\/p>\n
Uzun s\u00fcredir m\u00fcttefik olan Kuzey Kore en muhtemel kaynak olacakt\u0131r; Vladimir Putin’in Rusya’s\u0131ndan (zaten n\u00fckleer enerji projelerinde i\u015fbirli\u011fi yap\u0131yor) gelecek yard\u0131m da tamamen g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez. Pyongyang’\u0131n diktat\u00f6r\u00fc Kim Jong-un, \u015fimdiye kadar sava\u015ftan uzak durdu. Ancak Putin’e Ukrayna’da yard\u0131m etmek i\u00e7in gizlice asker g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi gibi, Tahran’\u0131 silahland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in de gizlice devreye girebilir. N\u00fckleer yay\u0131lma konusunda Kim’in ge\u00e7mi\u015fi var.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, bask\u0131c\u0131 n\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7lerin elinde a\u011f\u0131r ac\u0131lar \u00e7ekmi\u015f, n\u00fckleer silahs\u0131z \u00fclkelerin artan say\u0131s\u0131na kat\u0131ld\u0131. 1994’te Ukrayna, n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n\u0131, Rusya’n\u0131n 2014’te ilk kez sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011fersiz oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan Bat\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fcvenceleri kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda teslim etti. N\u00fckleer cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmayan Irak rejimi, 2003’te ABD i\u015fgaline boyun e\u011fdi. Trump, Ocak ay\u0131nda Venezuela n\u00fckleer silahlara sahip olsayd\u0131 ona sald\u0131r\u0131r m\u0131yd\u0131?<\/p>\n
E\u011fer tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f n\u00fckleer silah devletleri, 1968 N\u00fckleer Silahlar\u0131n Yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00d6nleme Anla\u015fmas\u0131 (NPT) y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini yerine getirerek n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131p nihayetinde ortadan kald\u0131rsalard\u0131, di\u011ferleri n\u00fckleer bir kalkan ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 daha az hissederdi. Ancak s\u00f6zlerini s\u00fcrekli \u00e7i\u011fniyorlar. ABD ve Rusya, NPT’nin \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in tasarland\u0131\u011f\u0131 suiistimaller olan bask\u0131n konumlar\u0131n\u0131 giderek k\u00f6t\u00fcye kullan\u0131yor. \u0130srail (\u0130ran’\u0131n aksine) anla\u015fmay\u0131 hi\u00e7bir zaman imzalamad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Trump’\u0131n endi\u015fe verici derecede mant\u0131ks\u0131z, d\u00fcrt\u00fcsel ve tehditkar davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na belirsizlik ve g\u00fcvensizlik yarat\u0131yor. Ancak militarizmi ayn\u0131 zamanda k\u00fcresel n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 da k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor. ABD, cephaneli\u011fini modernize etmek i\u00e7in milyarlar harc\u0131yor. Rusya, Kuzey Kore, Fransa ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k da benzer \u015fekilde hareket ederken, \u00c7in g\u00fc\u00e7lerini h\u0131zla ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geni\u015fletiyor. Ancak Trump, bir dizi so\u011fuk sava\u015f silah kontrol anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yenilemeyi reddetti.<\/p>\n
Barack Obama’n\u0131n Avrupa destekli 2015 \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 mahvetti; bu aptalca karar do\u011frudan bug\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Sava\u015f\u0131n ilk g\u00fcn\u00fcnde, \u0130ran’\u0131n dini lideri Ayetullah Ali Hamaney hedef al\u0131nd\u0131 ve \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. \u0130ran bombas\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015ftirilmesini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a yasaklayan ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 fetvas\u0131 muhtemelen onunla birlikte \u00f6ld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran konusunda Trump ve Netanyahu iki temel yanl\u0131\u015f anlama alt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Nihayetinde bir t\u00fcr so\u011fuk bar\u0131\u015f kurulsa bile, \u0130ranl\u0131lar Minab okul katliam\u0131 gibi vah\u015fetleri, \u00fclkelerine yap\u0131lan kas\u0131tl\u0131 y\u0131k\u0131m\u0131 ve Washington’\u0131n diplomatik ihanetlerini ne affedecek ne de unutacak \u2013 mevcut rejim iktidarda kalsa da kalmasa da. \u201c\u0130ran tehdidi\u201d devam edecek. \u0130kincisi, Tahran’\u0131n askeri \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011fe ra\u011fmen ABD ve \u0130srail’in kontrol edemedi\u011fi se\u00e7enekleri hala var.<\/p>\n
Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara maruz kalm\u0131\u015f, d\u0131\u015flanm\u0131\u015f Kuzey Kore, Tahran i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir \u015fablon sunuyor. Pyongyang rejimi, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta Pakistan’dan elde etti\u011fi gizli piyasa teknolojisini kullanarak kendi atom silahlar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirdi. Kim hanedan\u0131 daha sonra Be\u015far Esad’\u0131n Suriye’sine n\u00fckleerle ilgili transferler yapt\u0131. \u015eu anda \u0130ran ve Rusya’ya balistik f\u00fczeler sat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu noktada bir spek\u00fclasyon, ancak Kim’in \u0130ran’a eksiksiz n\u00fckleer sava\u015f ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 sa\u011flamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kim s\u00f6yleyebilir? Ya da bu \u00e7ok riskliyse, Uluslararas\u0131 Stratejik Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’nden n\u00fckleer yay\u0131lma uzman\u0131 ve eski k\u0131demli ABD diplomat\u0131 Mark Fitzpatrick’in \u00f6nerdi\u011fi gibi, petrol kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyum, sava\u015f ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tasar\u0131mlar\u0131 ve uzmanl\u0131k sa\u011flayabilir. Kim bunu yaparsa, kim bilecek ve kim onu durdurabilecek?<\/p>\n
Kim, Trump’\u0131n utan\u00e7 verici ilk d\u00f6nem cazibe sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana giderek daha cesur hale geldi. Trump’\u0131n gelecek ay Pekin’i ziyaret etti\u011finde yeniden temas kurulaca\u011f\u0131na dair Beyaz Saray sinyallerini g\u00f6rmezden gelen Kuzey Kore lideri, g\u00f6steri\u015fli bir \u015fekilde yeni f\u00fczeler deniyor, G\u00fcney Kore ve Japonya’y\u0131 alaya al\u0131yor ve \u00c7in, Rusya ve Belarus ile daha yak\u0131n ba\u011flar\u0131 vurguluyor. Mart ay\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada, ABD’nin \u0130ran’daki sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Kuzey Kore’nin n\u00fckleer bir cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 geli\u015ftirmekte hakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu \u201ckan\u0131tlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi. Tahran bu mesaj\u0131 kesinlikle duymu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
E\u011fer Kim yan\u0131l\u0131yorsa, Trump neden Kuzey Kore’ye \u0130ran’dan bu kadar farkl\u0131 davran\u0131yor? Sonu\u00e7ta, her iki \u00fclke de kom\u015fular\u0131n\u0131 tehdit ediyor ve Bat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 ittifaklar\u0131 benimsiyor, her ikisi de vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layan otoriter rejimler ve Kuzey Kore’nin n\u00fckleer tehdidi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ger\u00e7ek. \u00c7ifte standard\u0131n nedeni a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Trump bile n\u00fckleer silahl\u0131 bir devlete sald\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yeterince aptal de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Trump ve Putin’in sava\u015f\u00e7\u0131 davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah bulundurmay\u0131 savunan arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131 me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel n\u00fckleer yay\u0131lmay\u0131 \u00f6nleme \u00e7abalar\u0131 i\u00e7in potansiyel olarak felaket niteli\u011finde. E\u011fer \u0130ran kendini savunmak i\u00e7in n\u00fckleer silah edinmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rsa, Suudi Arabistan, M\u0131s\u0131r ve T\u00fcrkiye de onu takip edecek mi? Ve bu sadece Orta Do\u011fu’da. Ukrayna gibi, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 da di\u011fer n\u00fckleer silah devletleri i\u00e7in, n\u00fckleer silahs\u0131z \u00fclkelere sald\u0131rmaya karar verirlerse, bir k\u0131l\u0131f ve emsal te\u015fkil ediyor. \u00c7in de Tayvan’da benzer bir yol izleyebilir mi? \u0130ran’\u0131n kaderi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Taipei n\u00fckleer silah edinmek i\u00e7in acele etmeli mi? Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore de mi?<\/p>\n
Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc New York’ta a\u00e7\u0131lacak be\u015f y\u0131lda bir yap\u0131lan NPT g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irme konferans\u0131 \u00fczerinde bir kasvet havas\u0131n\u0131n dola\u015fmas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 zorluklar aras\u0131nda her yerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen n\u00fckleer silah modernizasyonu ve geni\u015fletme programlar\u0131; silah kontrol diplomasisinin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc; yeniden ba\u015flayan n\u00fckleer testler; ve Silah Kontrol Derne\u011fi’nin \u201cartan n\u00fckleer tehlikeler\u201d ve yay\u0131lma riskleri olarak adland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumlar yer al\u0131yor. Avam Kamaras\u0131 K\u00fct\u00fcphanesi’nin bu ayki ara\u015ft\u0131rma brifingi, \u201c’k\u00fcresel s\u0131f\u0131r’ veya n\u00fckleer silahs\u0131z bir d\u00fcnya fikrinin istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d uyard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu, \u00e7ocuklar\u0131 korkutmak i\u00e7in uydurulmu\u015f bir hikaye de\u011fil. Ger\u00e7ek. Ukrayna’y\u0131 i\u015fgal etti\u011finden beri Rusya, n\u00fckleer silah kullanma tehdidinde defalarca bulundu. Neyse ki \u015fimdiye kadar kullanmad\u0131. Son haftalarda, Trump \u0130ran’da \u00e7abalarken, ABD’nin de n\u00fckleer silahlara ba\u015fvurabilece\u011fine dair, daha sonra yalanlanan bir dizi rapor ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7 \u015fak\u0131rt\u0131s\u0131 olsun ya da olmas\u0131n, bu t\u00fcr tehditler fazlas\u0131yla tan\u0131d\u0131k hale geliyor. Mevcut batakl\u0131ktan adil ve makul bir m\u00fczakere yolu bulunabilirse, \u0130ran ve benzer \u015fekilde savunmas\u0131z orta d\u00fczey \u00fclkeler n\u00fckleer silahlardan vazge\u00e7meye devam etmeye ikna edilebilir. Ancak bask\u0131c\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcc\u00fc elinde bulunduran hakl\u0131d\u0131r\u201d diyen n\u00fckleer silahl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin hukuksuz sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kontrols\u00fcz bir \u015fekilde yay\u0131l\u0131rsa, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 garantili imhan\u0131n eski so\u011fuk sava\u015f kabusu bug\u00fcn\u00fcn uyan\u0131k ger\u00e7e\u011fi haline gelecektir.<\/p>\n
#\u0130ran #N\u00fckleerSilahlar #ABD #\u0130srail #N\u00fckleerYay\u0131lma #KuzeyKore #Uluslararas\u0131\u0130li\u015fkiler #Sava\u015fTehdidi #Cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k #NPT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
E\u011fer ‘g\u00fcc\u00fc elinde bulunduran hakl\u0131d\u0131r’ diyen n\u00fckleer silahl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin hukuksuz sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kontrols\u00fcz bir \u015fekilde yay\u0131l\u0131rsa, orta d\u00fczeydeki \u00fclkelerin ba\u015fka ne se\u00e7ene\u011fi kal\u0131r? At\u0131lan her bomba, ele ge\u00e7irilen her gemi ve kan dondurucu yok etme tehdidiyle Donald Trump, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck pazarl\u0131k\u201d bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 reddetme ve bunun yerine gelecekteki \u00f6z savunma i\u00e7in n\u00fckleer silah edinme te\u015fvikini art\u0131r\u0131yor. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10036,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-orta-dogu-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10035","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10035"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10035\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10036"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10035"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10035"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fajr.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10035"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}