Escalation in the Middle East: Trump Announces New Talks, Issues Fresh Threats, as Hormuz Strait Descends into Chaos
On February 28, the USA and Israel launched attacks on Iran. Tehran responded with counter-attacks that not only hit Israel. The war has now spread to the entire region, with no end to the conflict in sight. The developments in the ticker.
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“That wasn’t nice, was it?” Trump Speaks Out
According to US President Donald Trump, a delegation from Washington is once again traveling to the Pakistani capital Islamabad for negotiations in the conflict with Iran. His representatives will be there tomorrow evening, Trump wrote on the Truth Social platform without giving details of the time zone.
The 79-year-old went on to write about yesterday’s attacks in the Strait of Hormuz: “That wasn’t nice, was it?” the New Yorker joked. Iran is losing 500 million dollars a day as a result of the US blockade. The USA, on the other hand, is selling more oil and gas than ever.
“Compliments to the Revolutionary Guards, who always want to play ‘the tough guy’,” it says sarcastically. If Tehran did not make a deal, the USA would “knock out every single power plant and bridge”. “No more Mr. Nice Guy”, Trump writes: that’s enough fun!
Donald Trump has told ABC News journalist Joanthan Karl that Iran has committed “serious violations” of the ceasefire, but the 79-year-old still believes peace is possible: “It will happen. One way or another. The nice way or the hard way. It will happen. You can quote me on that.”
Intelligence Estimates on Iran’s Arsenal
US intelligence and military officials estimate that Iran still has about 40 percent of its pre-war arsenal of long-range attack drones and 60 percent of its ballistic and cruise missiles, the New York Times reports.
Since the two-week ceasefire began on April 8, more than 100 systems buried in caves and bunkers by U.S. and Israeli attacks have been recovered.
In addition, some American estimates suggest that Iran may have recovered up to 70 percent of its pre-war stockpile of missiles that were also buried by the attacks on its bunkers and depots.
Panic in the Strait of Hormuz: Ships Under Fire
Yesterday, Iranian speedboats fired on two Indian ships trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Now part of the radio traffic between the oil tanker Sanmar Herald and the coastal station has become public.
“You gave me clearance for passage,” the stressed voice of the Indian sailor can be heard. He repeats: “You gave me clearance for passage, now you’re shooting! Let me turn back!”
Here’s an audio recording of the Indian oil tanker Sanmar Herald pleading with Iranian military forces to stop shooting at it in the Strait of Hormuz this morning.
The Institute for the Study of War classifies: “The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) attacked several merchant ships and stopped traffic in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18, likely to gain leverage against the United States and to consolidate IRGC control over Iranian negotiating policy as part of an internally motivated maneuver.”
According to Centcom, the US Navy had blocked 23 ships attempting to leave the Persian Gulf as of yesterday (Saturday).
Israel Divides Southern Lebanon Amid Ceasefire Concerns
According to a media report, the Israeli army has divided southern Lebanon, which it continues to control, into three zones in which it is active following the ceasefire. The so-called red line designates the first row of villages directly on the Israeli-Lebanese border, reported the Israeli newspaper “Jediot Achronot”.
Most of the buildings there had already been destroyed, there were no longer any fighters from the Lebanese Hezbollah militia in the area and Israeli ground troops had taken up permanent positions in some places.
The “yellow line” – based on the model of the Gaza Strip, half of which continues to be occupied by Israel even after a ceasefire – runs six to ten kilometers from the border, the newspaper reported. This zone, in which dozens of villages are located, is intended to prevent shelling from places in northern Israel, mainly by rockets.
Israeli ground troops are still deployed in this zone and there are still isolated battles in the area of the Hezbollah stronghold of Bint Dzhubail, for example.
The third line extends to the Litani River, about 30 kilometers from the border. In this area, the army wants to enforce its control primarily through “firepower and observation posts”.
When announcing the ten-day ceasefire, Israeli Prime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the Israeli army should remain in a “reinforced security zone” in southern Lebanon. This extends from the Mediterranean to the Syrian border and is around ten kilometers wide. This would serve to protect the villages in northern Israel from Hezbollah attacks.
There is concern in Lebanon about a permanent occupation of the south. Israel had already established a so-called “security zone” in the south of Lebanon after the first Lebanon war in 1982. It was not until 2000 that the last Israeli soldiers withdrew from the area after continuous losses. The 1982 invasion and the subsequent occupation, which also aimed to prevent shelling of northern Israel, contributed significantly to the emergence of Hezbollah.
Protests in Israel Over Lebanon Ceasefire
In protest against the ceasefire in the conflict with the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, residents of Israel’s largest city on the northern border have gone on strike: In Kiriat Shmona, the city administration and the education system remained closed today, as reported by the Israeli Kan channel.
Protests were also planned in Jerusalem by representatives of the city, which was also repeatedly shelled by Hezbollah during the recent war. The Israeli working week begins on Sunday.
Like other residents of Israel’s north, representatives of Kiriat Shmona are calling for the complete disarmament of Hezbollah and better rocket protection in the border town. This applies in particular to schools and kindergartens.
Since the beginning of the Gaza war two and a half years ago, in which Hezbollah also became involved, many of the approximately 24,000 inhabitants have left the particularly affected town of Kiriat Shmona.
Critics accuse Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of allowing US President Donald Trump to impose a ceasefire in Lebanon. Netanyahu had repeatedly promised a decisive victory over Hezbollah.
“This is not a complete victory – this is a turning away from the residents of the north!” said the mayor of Kiriat Shmona, Avichai Stern, in a statement. He spoke of a “dangerous ceasefire” that would jeopardize the security of the residents of Israel’s north.
Shortly after the start of the Iran war at the end of February, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah and Israel’s military had again engaged in fighting. The ceasefire came into force on the night of April 17. The Lebanese government and its army are not themselves a party to the conflict.
Global Tourism Hit by Iran War
Switzerland, Austria and Great Britain are complaining about fewer tourists due to the war in Iran and its consequences. Guests from Asia canceled in March, partly because flights via hubs in the Middle East such as Dubai were canceled, reports André Aschwanden, spokesperson for Switzerland Tourism.
New bookings also decreased. “This is all the more unfavorable as it would actually be high season for travel to Europe and Switzerland in the Gulf States, but also in India and Southeast Asia,” he told the dpa news agency.
In Zurich, the effects are noticeable, as Thomas Wüthrich, Director of Zurich Tourism, tells dpa. “Feedback from restaurants, retailers and other tourist attractions shows that the absence of international guests was already noticeable in March.” The problem is a general uncertainty about international travel.
Bookings for the summer and fall have slowed considerably as a result. In Lucerne, around two thirds are reporting “a decline in bookings”, says Jessica Ternes from the Swiss Hotel Association in Central Switzerland. “Businesses with a high proportion of group travelers from Asia and guests from the Gulf States are particularly affected.”
Great Britain is otherwise a magnet for guests from the Middle East. Almost a third of the generous tourists from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates who travel to Europe come to the UK, reports the tourism organization Visitbritain.
Since the start of the war, flight bookings from the Middle East have halved, while bookings from India have fallen by a third. By July, bookings were well below the previous year’s level. Tourists are still waiting to see how the situation develops.
Austria is also feeling the effects of the war. Destinations such as Salzburg, Tyrol and, in some cases, Vienna have been particularly affected by a sharp decline from the Middle East, says the spokesperson for the Austrian Hotel Association.
Some upscale hotels in Vienna had 20 percent fewer guests. A lack of guests not only means empty beds, but also less turnover, and not just for the hotel industry: Arab guests in Austria spend around three times as much money per day as tourists on average.
Italy sees and expects hardly any significant declines. Most guests there traditionally come from Europe as well as North and South America. According to the travel industry umbrella organization Exceltur, there are no worries about the war in Spain.
Spain could benefit if the Iran war remains short, otherwise the negative consequences would probably outweigh the positive ones, Exceltur believes: as a particularly safe country, it could attract more tourists. At the same time, however, the association warns that rising hotel and flight prices and strained household budgets may result in less travel.
IRGC Threatens All Ships in Strait of Hormuz
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have threatened to attack all ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is immensely important for world trade. “Any attempt to approach the Strait of Hormuz will be considered cooperation with the enemy,” the Revolutionary Guards warned in a statement on their website “Sepah News” on Saturday. Any ship approaching the strait would be “targeted”.
The Revolutionary Guards warned all ships “of any kind” not to leave their anchorages in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. These are the two sea areas connected by the Strait of Hormuz.
Following the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have fired on at least one ship and also threatened the TUI cruise ship “Mein Schiff 4”. According to the British Maritime Safety and Security Office (UKMTO) on Saturday, the captain of a tanker reported an attack by two Revolutionary Guard patrol boats around 37 kilometers northeast of Oman.
The security company Vanguard Tech stated that the Revolutionary Guards had threatened the cruise ship “Mein Schiff 4”, which was traveling without passengers, while it was crossing the Strait of Hormuz on the Oman side. According to the captain, the Revolutionary Guards had declared: “We are carrying out an operation, we will shoot and destroy you.” An impact was reported near the ship, but no damage was reported.
The cruise company TUI Cruises stated that the Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 had “successfully passed” the Strait of Hormuz. “The focus is now on the speedy onward journey of the ships towards the Mediterranean.” A company spokeswoman declined to comment to the AFP news agency on the threat to Mein Schiff 4 from the Revolutionary Guards.
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