The United States and Iran appeared no closer on Saturday to resolving their ongoing conflict, following renewed exchanges of fire in the Gulf despite a fragile ceasefire. Concurrently, a US intelligence analysis suggested that Tehran possesses the resilience to withstand a naval blockade for several months.
Recent days have witnessed the most significant escalation of fighting in and around the Strait of Hormuz since a ceasefire was initiated a month prior. The United Arab Emirates reported coming under renewed attack on Friday.
Washington has been awaiting Tehran’s response to a US proposal aimed at formally ending the war, which would precede discussions on more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear program. Speaking in Rome on Friday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated the US anticipated a response that very day. However, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson stated that Tehran was still deliberating its reply.
Sporadic clashes persisted on Friday between Iranian forces and US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency. The Tasnim news agency later quoted an Iranian military source who described the situation as having calmed but cautioned that further confrontations remained possible.
The US military confirmed it had struck two Iran-linked vessels attempting to enter an Iranian port. A US fighter jet reportedly targeted their smokestacks, compelling them to retreat.
Since the war commenced on February 28th with US-Israeli airstrikes across Iran, Tehran has largely restricted non-Iranian shipping through the strait. Prior to the conflict, the narrow waterway served as a crucial passage for one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
Last month, the US imposed a blockade on Iranian vessels. Nevertheless, a CIA assessment, according to a US official familiar with the matter, indicated that Iran would not experience severe economic pressure from a US blockade of its ports for approximately another four months. This assessment has raised questions regarding President Donald Trump’s leverage over Tehran in a conflict that has garnered little popularity among voters and US allies. A senior intelligence official, however, dismissed the “claims” about the CIA analysis, which was initially reported by the Washington Post, as false.
Clashes were not confined to the waterway. The UAE reported that its air defenses intercepted two ballistic missiles and three drones originating from Iran on Friday, resulting in three individuals sustaining moderate injuries.
Iran has consistently targeted the UAE and other Gulf states hosting US military bases. In what the UAE termed a major escalation, Iran intensified its attacks this week in response to Trump’s announcement of “Project Freedom,” an initiative to escort ships in the strait, which he subsequently paused after 48 hours.
On Thursday, Trump asserted that the ceasefire, declared on April 7th, remained in effect despite the recent flare-ups, while Iran accused the US of violating it.
“Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the US opts for a reckless military adventure,” stated Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi on Friday. Iran’s Mehr news agency reported one crew member killed, ten wounded, and six missing following a US Navy attack on an Iranian commercial ship late Thursday.
The US has garnered minimal international support in this conflict. Following a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Rubio questioned why Italy and other allies were not backing Washington’s efforts to reopen the strait, warning of a dangerous precedent should Tehran be permitted to control an international waterway.
While pursuing diplomatic avenues, the US has also intensified sanctions to exert pressure on Iran. Days before Trump’s visit to China to meet President Xi Jinping, the US Treasury announced sanctions on Friday against ten individuals and companies, including several based in China and Hong Kong. These sanctions were imposed for their alleged involvement in aiding Iran’s military efforts to procure weapons and raw materials utilized in the production of Tehran’s Shahed drones.
The Treasury further stated its readiness to take action against any foreign company supporting illicit Iranian commerce and warned of potential secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions, including those connected to China’s independent oil refineries.
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