Global oil supplies have been disrupted for weeks due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. However, oil prices recently plunged as hopes for a peace deal between the US and Iran emerged, potentially ending the two-month-long conflict. Crude oil fell below $100, reaching $89 on Wednesday, with markets reacting positively to the news of a potential agreement.
Despite these diplomatic overtures, Donald Trump reiterated threats to resume hostilities if Iran does not agree to a deal. On his Truth Social platform, the former president stated that if Iran agrees to the terms, ‘the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be open to all, including Iran.’ He ominously warned that ‘if they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.’ These comments followed reports that the US and Iran were nearing an agreement contingent on both sides lifting their blockades around the Strait.
Amidst these developments, the US military fired multiple rounds at an unladen Iranian-flagged tanker, M/T Hasna, on Wednesday, disabling it as it attempted to breach the blockade near an Iranian port. Centcom confirmed issuing warnings before disabling the vessel’s rudder. In other regional news, an airstrike hit Beirut’s southern suburbs, the first in weeks. The human impact of the conflict was highlighted by a Ukrainian sailor trapped in the Strait of Hormuz, recounting the terror of rockets flying overhead. The US Department of Homeland Security also identified the US-Israeli war with Iran as a potential motive for the suspect accused of attempting to assassinate President Donald Trump last month.
Internationally, Israel continued its attacks on Lebanon despite US-Iran ceasefire talks. A senior Iranian parliament member dismissed a reported US proposal as a ‘wishlist,’ asserting that Americans ‘will not gain anything in a war they are losing that they have not gained in face-to-face negotiations.’ China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, called for a ‘comprehensive ceasefire’ during a meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Beijing. Iran’s spokesperson, Esmaeil Baqaei, emphasized that negotiations require ‘good faith’ and should not be ‘deception’ or ‘extortion.’ Meanwhile, an Israeli source indicated that Israel was unaware of Trump’s closeness to a peace deal and was preparing for an escalation. France affirmed its ability to secure the Hormuz Strait and expressed a desire for the Strait’s security to be separate from US-Iran talks, deploying its Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier group for potential navigation freedom missions.
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