Oil prices experienced a further decline following President Trump’s indication of a potential peace deal to conclude the conflict with Iran. Brent crude futures dropped over 6 percent to approximately $103 a barrel, while US oil prices fell nearly 7 percent to $95 a barrel, extending losses from the previous session.
Traders are closely monitoring the situation in the Strait of Hormuz after Trump announced a pause in his “Project Freedom” initiative, which aimed to assist ships navigating the crucial waterway. Reports suggest that Iran and the US are nearing a one-page memorandum to end the conflict. Citing US officials and other sources, Axios reported that the proposed deal includes Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the US lifting sanctions and unfreezing billions in Iranian funds, and both sides removing transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. The US reportedly expects Iran’s response within 48 hours, though neither side has officially commented.
Meanwhile, a diplomatic rift between US President Donald Trump and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz over the Iran conflict has intensified, evolving into a broader debate about transatlantic ties as Berlin seeks to enhance its military standing in Europe. Merz had previously criticized Washington’s failure to secure a deal with Tehran and accused Trump of lacking strategy. This tension escalated further with Trump’s announcement of redeploying 5,000 US troops from Germany, including a Stryker brigade from Bavaria.
A Pakistani source involved in peace efforts confirmed to Reuters that the US and Iran are close to finalizing a one-page memo to end the war, echoing the Axios report.
In Iran, judicial authorities have seized assets belonging to what they describe as “40 traitors to the homeland” in Hamadan province, according to Fars news agency. These assets, reportedly from “influential individuals in the enemy collaborators network,” are slated for use in reconstructing war-damaged areas, prioritizing public services like hospitals and schools.
Reza Amiri Moghadam reacted to Trump’s announcement regarding the pause in Hormuz operations on X, sharing Trump’s Truth Social post with a Farsi caption translating to “He who tries what has already been tried will be filled with regret,” and an English equivalent: “Once Beaten, Twice Shy.” Trump stated the decision to pause was made at the request of Pakistan, which is mediating the US-Iran talks.
Natasha Turak, a Middle East journalist, noted that Gulf nations had reservations about Trump’s “Project Freedom,” fearing further militarization could trigger escalation, as seen in recent skirmishes and attacks in the strait and on the UAE. She suggested that Gulf leaders are concerned Tehran might perceive this de-escalation as a sign that its actions are yielding results, given Trump’s eagerness to exit the conflict. Turak emphasized the Strait’s economic importance to Gulf states, who desire its reopening without permanent US militarization or Iran controlling the waterway.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif praised Trump’s decision to halt the Hormuz operation, calling it “courageous leadership” that will advance regional peace and stability. Pakistan has actively mediated the US-Iran negotiations, with recent talks held in Islamabad. Sharif reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to dialogue and diplomacy for peaceful conflict resolution.
The ongoing situation in the Strait of Hormuz is significantly impacting Gulf economies. Goldman Sachs estimates GCC states are losing approximately $700 million daily due to disrupted oil movement. Prolonged disruption would have global economic repercussions and damage the GCC’s reputation as a secure energy hub. Gulf nations are keen to see the strait reopened swiftly to normalize economic activity.
Separately, the report notes that the world’s focus on the Iran conflict has overshadowed Israel’s actions in Gaza. Despite a “ceasefire,” Israeli forces have reportedly expanded military control beyond the “Yellow Line” in Gaza since 2025, raising concerns about permanent occupation or renewed incursions.
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