The findings are based on the number of certificates of origin issued by Chambers of Commerce. These are a key customs document required for exporting UK goods, including to Arab League countries. Issued at the start of the export journey, they serve as a reliable proxy for trade flows.
Total UK certificates of origin issued by Chambers to exporters saw a 10 percent drop, with numbers falling from 39,457 in March 2025 to 35,533 this year. Certificates for Arab markets experienced a more significant decline of 20 percent, from 15,437 in March 2025 to 12,360 in March 2026. In contrast, certificates for non-Arab markets declined by just 4 percent, from 24,751 in March 2025 to 23,785 in March 2026.
According to the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), a sharp fall in certificates indicates that goods are either being delayed, rerouted, or not shipped at all. This divergence suggests that the issue is not a general slowdown in demand, but rather a region-specific shock consistent with the escalation of conflict and disruption across key trade corridors.
Companies classified as Arab League countries for certificates of origin include Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
Steven Lynch, director of international trade at the British Chambers of Commerce, stated: “For months, businesses have been telling us that the world is getting harder to trade in, and the data is now catching up with that reality. Routes are less reliable, costs are rising, and geopolitical risk is something firms are having to manage day-to-day. Our documentation data shows a clear and immediate shock to UK trade flows linked directly to disruption across the Middle East. The fact that exports tied to Arab markets are falling far faster than elsewhere tells us this is a targeted, region-specific impact, not a broad-based downturn.”
He added: “Firms are reporting increased delays, rerouting via longer and more expensive pathways, enduring rising insurance premiums and facing stretched lead times. For SMEs in particular, this squeezes cashflow and confidence at a time when exporting is already challenging. There are early signs some trade may be delayed rather than permanently lost, but the operating environment has fundamentally changed. Trade must be treated as national infrastructure, exposed directly to geopolitical events, and resilience is now essential, not optional.”
Jonathan Crosbie, international documentation manager at Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce, commented: “The data reflects what we are seeing on a local level. Demand for export paperwork to the Middle East experienced a sizeable decline in March, and companies have advised us that uncertain market conditions as well as increased shipping prices are both having an effect on their current export requirements.”
Greater Birmingham businesses are encouraged to participate in a survey to share how events in the Middle East are affecting their operations. Businesses are also advised to consult with Jonathan Crosbie and the international documentation team for clarification and information on certificates of origin.
The BCC, in partnership with the Foreign Office, has established a Diplomatic Advisory Hub to provide UK firms with the latest intelligence and advice on overseas trade. Thousands of businesses have attended its webinars on the Middle East conflict to support their operations. Additionally, the BCC has published a new report on global supply chains, outlining various options to protect the UK’s trade flows during times of crisis.
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