Iran’s Proposal and US Rejection

Iran’s latest proposal suggests postponing discussions on its nuclear program until the war concludes and disputes over shipping in the Persian Gulf are resolved. This approach is unlikely to appease the United States, which insists that nuclear issues must be addressed from the outset. A US official, speaking anonymously and briefed on President Trump’s Monday meeting with his advisers, confirmed Trump’s unhappiness with Iran’s proposal for this specific reason.

White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales reiterated that the US “will not negotiate through the press” and has “been clear about our red lines” as the Trump administration seeks to end the war against Iran, which began in February alongside Israel.

Historical Context and Failed Diplomacy

A previous agreement in 2015, involving Iran and several other countries including the US, significantly curtailed Iran’s nuclear program, which Tehran has consistently maintained is for peaceful, civilian purposes. However, that deal collapsed when Trump unilaterally withdrew from it during his first term in office.

Hopes for reviving peace efforts have waned since the US president canceled a planned visit last weekend by his special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Islamabad, Pakistan. During that weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made two trips to the Pakistani capital. Araghchi also visited Oman and, on Monday, traveled to Russia, where he met President Vladimir Putin and received support from a long-standing ally.

Economic Impact and Blockade

With the warring sides still seemingly far apart, oil prices resumed their upward trajectory, extending gains in early Asia trade on Tuesday. Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, noted, “For oil traders, it’s not the rhetoric that matters any more, but the actual physical flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and right now, that flow remains constrained.”

Ship-tracking data revealed that at least six tankers loaded with Iranian oil have been forced back to Iran in recent days due to the US blockade, highlighting the war’s significant impact on maritime traffic. Iran’s foreign ministry condemned US seizures of Iran-linked tankers as “outright legalization of piracy and armed robbery on the high seas” in a social media post.

Before the war, between 125 and 140 ships typically traversed the strait daily. However, Kpler ship-tracking data and satellite analysis from SynMax indicate that only seven ships did so in the past day, none of which were carrying oil destined for the global market.

Domestic Pressure and Iranian Stance

Facing declining approval ratings, Trump is under domestic pressure to end a war for which he has provided the US public with shifting rationales. Araghchi informed reporters in Russia that Trump had requested negotiations because the US has not achieved any of its objectives.

Senior Iranian officials, speaking anonymously to Reuters, detailed that the proposal carried by Araghchi to Islamabad envisioned talks in stages, with the nuclear issue initially set aside. The first step would involve ending the US-Israeli war on Iran and providing guarantees against its resumption. Subsequently, negotiators would address the US Navy’s blockade of Iran’s sea trade and the future of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran aims to reopen under its control. Only then would discussions proceed to other matters, including the long-standing dispute over Iran’s nuclear program, with Iran still seeking some form of US acknowledgment of its right to enrich uranium.