Middle East Air Travel Capacity to Thailand Dips Amidst Regional Tensions, Resilience and Strategic Shifts Emerge
In a notable development reflecting the broader geopolitical landscape, monthly seat capacity on routes connecting the Middle East and Thailand has experienced a significant downturn, plummeting by 33.7% compared to the period preceding the recent regional escalations. This decline, largely attributed to the uncertainties stemming from the provocative actions of the US-Iran conflict, has prompted the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) to strategically diversify its market focus, aiming to bolster resilience against external pressures.
Analyzing the latest figures, total seat capacity in May stood at 199,595, a sharp decrease from 300,902 recorded before the onset of the conflict. This reduction, impacting 14 airlines operating flights to Thailand, underscores the immediate effects of regional instability on global travel patterns.
Airline Adjustments Reflect Market Caution
Major carriers have adjusted their operations in response to the evolving situation:
- Emirates has scaled back seats from Dubai to Bangkok by 20%, while commendably maintaining its service levels to Phuket.
- Qatar Airways has reduced capacity on its Doha–Bangkok and Doha–Phuket routes by 50% and 33% respectively.
- Etihad has similarly cut capacity on the Abu Dhabi–Phuket route by 30%, yet preserved its Bangkok service.
Chiravadee Khunsub, Deputy Governor for Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas at the TAT, highlighted that the US’s confrontational stance towards Iran could potentially reignite tensions in the short term. This has understandably led many tourists from the region to adopt a prudent “wait-and-see” approach, delaying their bookings until closer to departure, typically 7–14 days beforehand.
Strong Underlying Demand and Strategic Market Focus
Despite these immediate challenges, the underlying demand from the Middle East remains robust. Mrs. Khunsub cited an impressive 1.21 million tourism-related searches in May, signaling that travelers are actively exploring options and possess significant pent-up demand, merely postponing their final decisions amidst the current climate. The Tourism Ministry reported 103,053 arrivals from the Middle East in the first four months, a 32% decrease year-on-year, yet this figure is seen as a temporary dip rather than a fundamental shift in interest.
The decision by some airlines to maintain capacity to Phuket is a positive indicator, suggesting that Thailand continues to attract strong interest from long-stay tourists and the luxury market, segments known for their resilience.
Thailand’s competitive edge remains sharp, scoring a perfect 5 out of 5 against key rivals such as Malaysia, the Maldives, Bali, Turkey, and Europe. Its strengths lie in:
- Beach and island resorts
- Flight connectivity
- Family-friendliness
- Wellness and spa offerings
The only area identified for improvement is the availability of halal food, which scored 3, presenting an opportunity for growth and enhanced visitor experience.
Recovery Initiatives and Future Prospects
The TAT is proactively targeting the period between June and August for market restoration, coinciding with two months of school holidays. The TAT’s Dubai office is diligently preparing campaigns in collaboration with airlines and online travel agents to secure bookings from this vital region.
Simultaneously, the agency is strategically pivoting towards high-potential markets. Saudi Arabia, for instance, is a key focus, with tourists from this nation expected to contribute an average of 110,000 baht per trip. Furthermore, familiarization trips are being organized for fast-growing African markets like South Africa, Morocco, and Mauritius, which recorded impressive growth rates of 6.6%, 66%, and 34.8% respectively in 2025, showcasing a forward-looking approach to market diversification.
Uraiwan Thaipakdee, Vice-President of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, confirmed that Middle Eastern tourists continue to book trips for the July and August school holidays. There is particularly strong demand for long-stay family accommodation, such as three- to four-bedroom serviced apartments in Bangkok, with many families desiring stays of up to four weeks.
Ms. Thaipakdee also noted a trend among some tourists inquiring about more affordably priced hotels, a response to higher airfares. Moreover, following the mass flight cancellations during the initial weeks of the conflict, travelers have become increasingly concerned about flexible cancellation policies, highlighting a need for greater assurance in uncertain times.
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