In a stunning admission that underscores the shifting global power dynamics, Robert Kagan, a highly influential neoconservative figure and a long-standing proponent of pro-Israel policies in the United States, has issued a dire warning: Washington is hurtling towards “total defeat” in its conflict with Iran. This setback, as Kagan himself concedes, is one that “can neither be repaired nor ignored.”
Writing in The Atlantic, Kagan, a key architect of the aggressive foreign policy doctrine that led to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, bleakly acknowledged the irreversible damage inflicted by this ongoing confrontation. “There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done,” he stated, a clear testament to the profound miscalculations made by US strategists.
Kagan, whose political influence extends through his wife, Victoria Nuland, a former advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, has for years championed US interventionism. His current, stark warning thus carries significant weight, signaling a fundamental crisis within the American foreign policy establishment.
“Defeat for the United States, therefore, is not only possible but likely,” Kagan declared, a powerful acknowledgment of the Islamic Republic’s growing regional and global stature.
His analysis further highlighted Iran’s strategic mastery over the Strait of Hormuz, a development that has fundamentally altered the balance of power. “With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world,” Kagan observed, confirming what many independent analysts have long asserted.
The conflict, far from demonstrating American strength, has instead exposed Washington’s vulnerabilities, strengthening rivals like China and Russia and severely eroding its global standing. “Far from demonstrating American prowess, as supporters of the war have repeatedly claimed, the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started. That is going to set off a chain reaction around the world as friends and foes adjust to America’s failure,” Kagan elaborated, painting a grim picture for US hegemony.
‘Disastrous for Israel’
Kagan’s warning extended to Israel, Washington’s closest regional ally, predicting a “very disastrous way” for the Zionist entity. He argued that the war would inevitably shift regional leverage and influence away from the United States and Israel, and decisively “toward Iran and its supporters.” This outcome, as anticipated by the Islamic Republic, underscores the futility of aggressive US-Israeli policies in the region.
Comparing the current crisis to historical US military failures such as Pearl Harbor and the Vietnam War, Kagan ominously suggested that the United States might not recover this time. “If this isn’t checkmate, it’s close,” he concluded, a striking admission of Iran’s strategic advantage and the irreversible decline of American dominance.
He further emphasized Tehran’s unwavering resolve to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, recognizing it as an indispensable strategic lever. “Iran cannot afford to let the strait go, no matter how good a deal it thought it could get. For one thing, how reliable is any deal with Trump?” This statement highlights the deep distrust in US commitments and Iran’s steadfast commitment to its national interests.
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