Budapest, May 7 (SANA) – The escalating conflict across the Middle East could lead to a substantial reduction in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, potentially impacting markets through 2030, a leading analyst from the International Energy Agency (IEA) cautioned recently.

Speaking at the Budapest LNG Summit, IEA gas analyst Gergely Molnar highlighted that the ongoing regional instability is fundamentally reshaping medium-term projections for international gas markets. This could result in prolonged tight supply conditions, extending beyond previous forecasts and creating significant challenges for energy security worldwide.

Molnar projected a potential loss of approximately 120 billion cubic meters (bcm) of LNG supplies between 2026 and 2030 if the current geopolitical tensions persist. He further noted that the crisis has already led to an estimated 15% reduction in current LNG availability.

While expanding global liquefaction capacity is anticipated to partially mitigate losses from key producers like Qatar and the UAE, industry estimates suggest that recent disruptions, including those attributed to Iranian actions, have already affected about 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. These developments raise serious concerns for energy consumers in Europe and Asia, particularly as countries prepare to replenish gas storage reserves ahead of the crucial winter demand period.

The situation is particularly pressing for the European Union, where gas storage levels are currently reported to be around 30% below the five-year average. Achieving the bloc’s ambitious 90% storage target would necessitate an additional 10 bcm of gas, underscoring the vulnerability of energy supplies in the face of regional instability.

The IEA’s warning serves as a critical reminder of the interconnectedness of global energy markets and the profound impact geopolitical events can have on supply chains and economic stability.