WASHINGTON/DUBAI, April 30 (Reuters) – Iran declared on Thursday that it would retaliate with “long and painful strikes” against U.S. positions should Washington renew its attacks, while also reasserting its claim over the Strait of Hormuz. This stance complicates U.S. efforts to form a coalition aimed at reopening the vital waterway.
Two months into the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, the crucial sea channel remains shut, disrupting 20% of global oil and gas supplies. This closure has triggered a surge in worldwide energy prices and intensified fears of an economic recession.
Attempts to resolve the conflict have reached a stalemate. A ceasefire has been in effect since April 8, yet Iran continues to block the strait, a move in response to a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iran’s oil exports, which are Tehran’s economic lifeline.
U.S. President Donald Trump was slated to be briefed on Thursday regarding plans for new military strikes intended to pressure Iran into negotiating an end to the conflict, a U.S. official informed Reuters.
While such military options have long been considered in U.S. strategy, reports of the proposed briefing, initially published by Axios late Wednesday, caused significant spikes in oil prices. The benchmark Brent crude contract briefly exceeded $126 a barrel before settling back to approximately $114.
According to the official IRNA news agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated on Thursday evening that expecting rapid outcomes from U.S. talks was unrealistic. He was quoted saying, “Expecting to reach a result in a short time, regardless of who the mediator is, in my opinion, is not very realistic.”
Late Thursday, air defense activity was reported in parts of Tehran, Iran’s capital, by the semi-official Mehr news agency. Tasnim news agency added that air defenses were engaging small drones and unmanned surveillance aerial vehicles.
The United Arab Emirates announced on Thursday that it had prohibited its citizens from traveling to Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq, urging those currently in these nations to depart immediately and return home, citing regional developments.
Trump reaffirmed to reporters on Thursday that Iran would not be permitted to possess a nuclear weapon, and that gasoline prices – a critical concern for his Republican Party before the November midterm elections – would “drop like a rock” once the war concluded.
Despite reiterating allegations of severe human rights violations by Iran, Trump stated he was “OK” with Iran participating in the upcoming soccer World Cup in the United States, following FIFA president Gianni Infantino’s insistence on the country’s involvement.
A senior official from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that any new U.S. attack on Iran, regardless of its scale, would trigger “long and painful strikes” against U.S. regional positions. Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi was quoted by Iranian media stating: “We’ve seen what happened to your regional bases, we will see the same thing happen to your warships.”
In a written message to Iranians, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei declared that Tehran would eliminate “the enemies’ abuses of the waterway” under new management of the strait, signaling Tehran’s intent to maintain its control over it. He added, “Foreigners who come from thousands of kilometers away… have no place there except at the bottom of its waters.”
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cautioned that if the disruption caused by the strait’s closure persisted through mid-year, global economic growth would decline, inflation would surge, and tens of millions more people would be plunged into poverty and extreme hunger. “The longer this vital artery is choked, the harder it will be to reverse the damage,” he told reporters in New York.
Trump faces a formal U.S. deadline on Friday to either end the war or present a case to Congress for its extension under the 1973 War Powers Resolution. This deadline appears set to pass without changing the conflict’s trajectory, as a senior administration official stated late Thursday that, for the resolution’s purposes, hostilities had ceased due to the April ceasefire between Tehran and Washington.
Trump reiterated on Thursday that Iran’s economy was “a disaster,” but analysts suggested that if he expects Iran to yield first in a game of economic brinkmanship, he might be waiting for a considerable time. The conflict has exacerbated Iran’s severe economic issues, risking post-war calamity, yet the country appears capable of enduring a standoff in the Gulf for now, despite a U.S. blockade that has halted its energy exports.
Beyond blocking nearly all shipping through the strait except its own during the war, Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel and at U.S. bases, infrastructure, and U.S.-linked companies in Gulf states.
Axios reported that another plan to be presented to Trump during the briefing involved deploying ground forces to seize part of the strait to reopen it for commercial shipping. Officials also indicated that Trump is considering extending the U.S. blockade or declaring a unilateral victory.
In a move suggesting the U.S. was also preparing for a cessation of hostilities, a State Department cable, to be orally delivered to partner nations by May 1, invited them to join a new coalition, the Maritime Freedom Construct, aimed at enabling ships to navigate the strait. France, Britain, and other nations have discussed contributing to such a coalition but stated their willingness to help open the Strait only once the conflict concludes.
Following talks with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Thursday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that halting Israeli attacks on Lebanon, where a fragile ceasefire is observed, was part of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire agreement and would remain a crucial point in any future negotiations. A Pakistani source revealed on Wednesday that mediator Pakistan was working to prevent escalation while the U.S. and Iran exchanged messages regarding a potential deal.
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