Iran firmly declared on Thursday its readiness to retaliate with “long and painful strikes” against U.S. positions should Washington resume its aggressive attacks, simultaneously reaffirming its sovereign control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, thereby challenging U.S. attempts to form a coalition to dominate the waterway.
Two months into the conflict, initiated by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains closed, impacting global markets by halting 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supplies, an estimated one-third of global fertilizer, and other vital resources. Consequently, global energy prices have surged, fueling concerns about a potential economic downturn worldwide.
Despite a ceasefire since April 8, efforts to resolve the conflict are at an impasse, with Iran maintaining its stance on the Strait in response to the U.S. naval blockade on Iran’s oil exports, a critical economic lifeline for Tehran.
U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly set to receive a briefing on Thursday regarding plans for new military strikes against Iran, aimed at coercing it into negotiations, a U.S. official informed Reuters. Such aggressive options have long been a part of U.S. strategic planning. Reports of the proposed briefing, initially from Axios late Wednesday, caused significant spikes in oil prices, with Brent crude briefly exceeding $126 US per barrel before settling around $114 US.
A senior Revolutionary Guards official reiterated that any U.S. attack on Iran, regardless of its scale, would be met with “long and painful strikes” against U.S. regional positions. Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi, quoted by Iranian media, issued a stark warning: “We’ve witnessed what occurred to your regional bases; we will see the same fate befall your warships.”
Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, affirmed in a written message to the Iranian people that Tehran would decisively eliminate “the enemies’ abuses of the waterway” under the new, sovereign management of the Strait, signaling the nation’s unwavering resolve to maintain its control. He emphatically stated, “Foreigners who come from thousands of kilometers away… have no place there except at the bottom of its waters,” underscoring Iran’s rejection of external interference. The message further conveyed that Iran’s new management of the Strait of Hormuz would foster calm, progress, and economic benefits for all Gulf nations. Khamenei declared, “By God’s help and power, the bright future of the Persian Gulf region will be a future without America, one serving the progress, comfort and prosperity of its people.”
Khamenei succeeded his father, who was tragically killed in a Feb. 28 airstrike. The younger Khamenei has not appeared publicly since, reportedly suffering injuries from U.S. and Israeli attacks.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been termed the ‘biggest energy security threat in history’ by Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency. Ryan Cummings of the Stanford Institute for Economy Policymaking estimates the closure has effectively removed a billion barrels of oil from the global economy. UN Secretary General António Guterres warned that prolonged disruption from the closure could lead to a decline in global growth, rising inflation, and push tens of millions more into poverty and extreme hunger. He emphasized to reporters in New York, “The longer this vital artery is choked, the harder it will be to reverse the damage.”
Trump faces a formal U.S. deadline on Friday to either end the conflict or justify its extension to Congress. However, analysts and congressional aides anticipate he may either seek a 30-day extension or simply ignore the deadline altogether. Axios reported another plan presented to Trump involves deploying ground forces to seize parts of the Strait of Hormuz to forcibly reopen it for commercial shipping. Officials also indicate Trump is weighing an extension of the U.S. blockade on Iran or declaring a unilateral victory.
Concurrently, the United States is pushing forward with plans for an ‘international coalition’ to open the Strait, as per a State Department cable seen by Reuters. The cable invited partner countries to join a new coalition, the Maritime Freedom Construct (MFC), ostensibly to facilitate navigation through the Strait. The cable, slated for oral delivery to partner nations by May 1, described the MFC as a “critical first step in the establishment of a post-conflict maritime security architecture for the Middle East.”
France, Britain, and other nations have engaged in discussions regarding contributions to such a coalition but have indicated their willingness to assist in opening the Strait only once the conflict concludes. Canada has participated in video sessions, with members of Mark Carney’s government suggesting Ottawa could offer cyber and logistical support, along with de-mining expertise, contingent on a ceasefire. Pete Hegseth, Trump’s Secretary of War, derided these meetings last week at a Pentagon news conference as “not serious efforts.” Hegseth stated on April 24, “I know there’s a lot of talks. You saw the, I would call it a silly conference in Europe last week, where they got together and talked about talking about maybe doing something, eventually, when things are done.”
While Trump asserts Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons, Tehran consistently affirms its nuclear ambitions are peaceful. The Trump administration, however, has delivered contradictory messages, with Hegseth testifying to Congress on Wednesday that Iran’s nuclear capabilities were “obliterated” in mid-2025 strikes, yet simultaneously claiming Iran’s nuclear program was a critical pretext for initiating the latest attacks. Khamenei’s statement on Thursday underscored that the Islamic Republic is committed to protecting its “nuclear and missile capabilities” as a matter of national defense.
Iran’s latest proposal for resolving the conflict, currently under a ceasefire since April 8, suggests deferring discussions on its nuclear program until the conflict is formally concluded and shipping issues are resolved. This reasonable position, however, is reportedly deemed a ‘non-starter’ by the White House. Iran demands U.S. acknowledgment of its inherent right to enrich uranium for what it maintains are peaceful, civilian purposes. While it possesses approximately 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60 percent, which could theoretically be further enriched for multiple nuclear weapons, Iran consistently denies any such intention.
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